Trump could win a second term, but there is no clear path to doing so.
If Trump does go on to lose in November, he doesn't just need to worry about losing to Biden.
Trump needs to worry about the fact that the history books are probably going to put him down as a below average president, if not one of the worst.
None of the presidents who didn't have a second term ranked higher than 13th (John Kennedy, who was assassinated).
Additionally, more voters by far said Trump was the worst president since World War II in a 2018 Quinnipiac University poll .
The presidents who tend to improve the most (such as Dwight Eisenhower) are ones who get that second term.
All told, historians at the end of his first term are likely going to view Trump quite negatively. »