U.S. intel believes Iran will soon retaliate for Israeli attack on Syria consulate
Iran soon to retaliate against Israel: U.S. intel
Israel and the U.S. are convinced Iran is preparing to retaliate for the Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria, U.S. officials say.
Israel on Monday struck an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, and killed a number of senior leaders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the Pentagon.
The U.S. has picked up intelligence that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack that would include a swarm of Shahed loitering drones and cruise missiles. Officials say the timing and target are unknown, but a proportional response to the Damascus attack would be to hit an Israeli diplomatic facility. The attack is likely to come between now and the end of Ramadan next week.
Another important unknown is where the drones and missiles would be launched — from Iraq or Syria, which could prompt a thin claim of deniability by Tehran — or from Iranian territory.
A public funeral was held in Tehran on Friday for the seven IRGC members killed in the suspected Israeli strike in Damascus, including two generals, CBS News' Seyed Bathaei reported.
At the funeral, the IRGC's overall commander, Gen. Hossein Salami, warned that Israel "cannot escape the consequences" of assassinating Iranian military officers, he did not give any further indication of how or when Iran might retaliate, Bathaei said.
Seeking to prevent Iranian retaliation on facilities connected to the U.S., Biden administration officials have stressed that the U.S. had no advance notice of the strike.
National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said that President Biden in his phone call Thursday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Iranian threats to Israel.
"There was discussion between the two leaders about the very viable and quite public threat Iran is making to Israel's security in the last day or so, and the president made very clear — very clear — to Prime Minister Netanyahu that he can count on U.S. support to help them in their self-defense against threats directly and publicly posed by Iran," Kirby told reporters on Friday.
The Israelis are already warning publicly that they will retaliate, so an attack by Iran on an Israeli facility would be another step closer to a regional war.
Earlier Friday, Iranian presidential adviser Mohammad Jamshidi posted on X that Iran's message to American leaders was "not to get dragged in Netanyahu's trap for U.S.: Stay away so you won't get hurt." Jamshidi claimed that the U.S. then "asked Iran not to target American facilities."
CBS News confirmed that the U.S. did receive a written message from Iran. A State Department spokesperson told CBS that the U.S. responded by sending a written warning to Iran not to use the Israeli strike as a "pretext to attack U.S. personnel and facilities."
The State Department spokesperson characterized its message to Iran as a warning: "We did not 'ask.'"
It is unusual for the U.S. to comment on the context of diplomatic messages or discussions but Iran had publicly disclosed it. The Swiss government acted as a conduit for the written message since the U.S. and Iran do not have direct diplomatic ties.
The U.S. has roughly 900 troops in Syria, and 2,500 troops in Iraq, as well as other support outposts in Jordan. The Iraqi prime minister, Shia al-Sudani, is scheduled to visit the White House on April 15 to discuss the U.S. military presence.
Yelesa on April 6th, 2024 at 03:25 UTC »
Third Party Submission Statement: Israel and the US are bracing for a potential Iranian retaliatory attack following an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the death of several senior Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders.
Intelligence suggests Iran may use drones and cruise missiles for the retaliation, with possible launch points from Iraq or Syria, adding a layer of deniability, or directly from Iranian territory. The exact timing and target remain uncertain, though it might aim at an Israeli diplomatic facility before Ramadan's end.
The Biden administration has clarified that it had no prior knowledge of the Israeli strike and has communicated both support for Israel's self-defense and a warning to Iran against attacking US personnel and facilities. The situation has raised concerns about escalating into a regional conflict, with both Iran and the US exchanging messages through Switzerland, since they lack direct diplomatic relations.
mschweini on April 5th, 2024 at 22:46 UTC »
The more I think about this consulate bombing, the more I am sure that Israel's whole point was to force Iran to retaliate and maybe escalate the situation.
Why else would they attack in such a 'taboo' way, while international support for their Gaza war is at an all time low?
If Iran does anything serious, then the USA and the west - no matter how displeased they are with the IDF's handling of the Gaza war - will have to stand by Israel. And that would imply that they will have to stop critizising the Gaza atrocities.
If Iran doesn't respond in force, they lose face and probably internal support.
PapaverOneirium on April 5th, 2024 at 21:53 UTC »
Iran has a very small needle to thread and they will have to do so carefully if we are to avoid a much larger war.
On the one hand, they likely feel they need to respond with force to establish deterrence. Without doing so, they may rightly fear that Israel will continue to pick off their military leaders, which would be hugely detrimental to their interests. Further, there is internal pressure to respond lest they look weak to their population. So some sort of response makes sense.
On the other hand, they likely do not want a direct war with Israel and by extension the United States. They are unlikely to win such a war (though they likely could make it extremely painful for the other side) and could potentially lead to the end of the regime.
So they need to find a response that is effective as deterrence but not escalatory. That is going to be difficult, and especially so when it seems clear some in Israeli leadership would welcome such a war and may determine even a measured response is escalatory and retaliate.
Israel’s allies in the west likely don’t want this war to expand. Biden being up for re-election certainly does not want to start a war that would undoubtedly be unpopular back home. Such a war would also greatly raise global oil prices which would be terrible for the economy.
I’m unsure about Russia. They might not mind more distraction for the US, but they have significant presence and interests in Syria which would certainly be in the crosshairs. This might force them to enter such a conflict themselves, which I doubt they have the appetite for. If they did enter, that could put the U.S. and Russia at serious risk of direct confrontation, with potentially apocalyptic outcomes.
I doubt China would want to take part in any direct way, though they might also welcome a more distracted United States. However, it may also put their interests at risk.
All in all, I think we are teetering on the brink of a very, very serious expansion in the conflict. Hopefully cool heads will prevail and the Iranian response will be measured, along with any potential Israeli response to that.