President Joe Biden has gained a surprise narrow lead over Donald Trump in two polls, eight months before November's presidential election, despite his approval rating sinking to an all-time low after his State of the Union (SOTU) address.
It was confirmed this week that there will be a rematch between the two politicians in the upcoming ballot after they both passed the nomination threshold, having won multiple presidential primaries.
Since then, political analysis has turned to who will come out on top, as they reenact their 2020 fight.
In two polls, it appears Biden might marginally beat his rival. One Reuters/Ipsos poll of 3,356 registered voters found Biden would get 39 percent of the vote while Trump would get 38 percent. It was conducted between March 7 and 13 and the margin of error is +/- 1.8 percentage points.
Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the East Room of the White House on March 12, 2024 in Washington, DC. The current president has... Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the East Room of the White House on March 12, 2024 in Washington, DC. The current president has gained a slim lead over his Republican rival, a new poll shows. More Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
A Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of 1,324 registered voters gave the Democrat 45 percent of the vote to Trump's 44 percent. This survey was conducted between March 9 and March 12 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email to comment on this story.
Biden delivered his SOTU speech last week and garnered positive reviews from a series of experts, and a good reaction from the American public, according to a poll.
He announced plans for the U.S. military to build a temporary pier on the Gaza coast to allow more humanitarian aid to reach the region.
Biden, 81, also used the speech to tackle concerns about his age, saying: "In my career I've been told I'm too young and I'm too old. Whether young or old, I've always known what endures."
The current president has gained a slim lead over his Republican rival, two polls show. The current president has gained a slim lead over his Republican rival, two polls show. Getty/Newsweek
In general, polling has been quite split and the Democrat has led Trump in other national polls. One poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation showed Biden leading Trump 47 percent to 44 percent. There were 1,072 registered voters surveyed between February 20 and 28 in this poll.
Others, however, have indicated that Trump will win. A March 3 to 5 poll of 1,450 registered voters by YouGov forecasts the former president to garner 44 percent of the vote share to Biden's 42 percent.
And despite a positive response to his SOTU address, Biden's approval rating sank afterwards to an all-time low of 37.4 percent, with his disapproval rating at 56.5 percent. Now, 38.4 percent of voters approve of the president, with 55.7 percent disapproving of him on March 15, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight's national average calculations.
With eight months until the vote, and the margins so tight, a lot could change, not least because Trump is facing four criminal indictments which could affect his political career. He has denied wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty in all of his cases.
Speaking to Newsweek earlier this week about other polls that showed Biden in the lead, Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, said: "I wouldn't invest too much in any given poll or even a handful of polls. Both campaigns know this race is just about tied right now, will likely remain that way for a while, and are executing their strategies accordingly."