Four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump has been successfully selling white Christian nostalgia, racism and xenophobia to his base. However, the Public Religion Research Institute’s massive poll of 6,616 participants suggests that what works with his base might pose an insurmountable problem with Gen Z teens and Gen Z adults (who are younger than 25).
Demographically, this cohort of voters bears little resemblance to Trump’s older, whiter, more religious followers. “In addition to being the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in our nation’s history, Gen Z adults also identify as LGBTQ at much higher rates than older Americans,” the PRRI poll found. “Like millennials, Gen Zers are also less likely than older generations to affiliate with an established religion.”
Those characteristics suggest Gen Z will favor a progressive message that incorporates diversity and opposes government imposition of religious views. Indeed, “Gen Z adults (21%) are less likely than all generational groups except millennials (21%) to identify as Republican.” Though 36 percent of Gen Z adults identify as Democrats, their teenage counterparts are more likely to be independents (51 percent) than older generations.
Ideologically, “Gen Z adults are the most likely of any generation to identify as liberal, at 43%, compared with one in four members of the Silent Generation (24%), baby boomers (25%), and Gen Xers (25%), and 39% of millennials.” However, Gen Z women are much more liberal than Gen Z men: “There is also a pronounced gender gap among Gen Z adults, with 47% of Gen Z women and 38% of Gen Z men identifying as liberal.” A racial divide exists, but it’s not as great as one might imagine: “White Gen Z adults are more likely than their non-white counterparts to identify as conservative (32% vs. 23%), but there is no significant difference in the proportion who identify as liberal.”
And, in contrast to the MAGA movement that gives voice to white Christian nationalists, “Gen Z adults are notably less likely to identify as white Christians and more likely to identify as religiously unaffiliated than older generations, with the exception of millennials.”
On specific issues, Gen Z voters overwhelmingly favor affirmative action and student loan forgiveness. As with older generations, they also favor allocating money for technical or trade school, but a huge majority also favors support for political and community work. Previous PRRI polling showed younger voters more supportive of abortion rights than older Americans. A raft of other polling shows them more concerned about climate change than older Americans.
Follow this author Jennifer Rubin 's opinions Follow
Gen Z voters are less trustful of government, organized religion, news organizations, the criminal justice system and the police than older generations are. A warning for those courting these voters: “Gen Z adults (58%) and Millennials (60%) are significantly less likely than Gen Xers (70%), Boomers (80%), and members of the Silent Generation (85%) to agree that voting is the most effective way to create change in America.”
Nevertheless, these younger Americans are hardly agnostic about politics. To the contrary, “Gen Z adults are notably more likely than older generations to have signed an online petition (36% vs. 30% or less of older generations) or to have followed the social media profile of someone with different views (21% vs. 16% or less),” the PRRI poll found. “Gen Z adults are also more likely than older generations (with the exception of millennials) to have posted on social media about an issue that matters to them (32% vs. 25% or less of Gen Xers and older generations) or encouraged others to be politically active on social media (18% vs. 12% or less of Gen Xers and older generations).”
All this suggests younger voters are eager to put use their time and money in furtherance of their values — on- and off-line: “Gen Z adults are notably more likely than older generations to have volunteered for a group or cause (30% vs. 24% or less) or attended a public rally or demonstration in person (15% vs. 8% or less).”
Though there is plenty of promising news about Gen Z for Democrats (e.g., less religious, more diverse, more progressive, agreement on some key issues), there are also some warning signs for Democrats seeking the votes of those who distrust older generations and are skeptical of voting. Democrats might want to tweak their message accordingly.
First, overt partisan appeals (You live better under Democrats!) might carry little weight with voters so indifferent to party affiliation. By contrast, stressing that the Biden administration made headway on key progressive aims (including a massive investment in green energy) and warning about the dangers of a right-wing onslaught (including deportation of dreamers and other undocumented immigrants) might be more effective.
In that regard, sending Kamala Harris, the first Black and first female vice president, to college campuses to talk about guns, abortion, the environment and other issues looks like a smart move. (Harris’s message that voters’ “freedom” is at stake provides a helpful contrast to a party wanting to impose its religious views on the rest of us.)
Second, given high levels of distrust of news organizations (only 37 percent of Gen Z adults said they have some or a great deal of trust in them) and the mainstream media’s predilection to treat politics like a horse race, Democrats will need to make the case directly to younger voters (most likely through social media) that the stakes are very high. They must repeat ad nauseam: These Americans’ vote matters a great deal. Holding up examples in which voting makes all the difference might be critical to turning out these voters.
Finally, the MAGA movement has presented a classical fascist message: Only some people are “real” Americans; others threaten the purity of our blood. There could be nothing more off-putting to a generation distinguished by its diversity, tolerance, suspicion of powerful institutions and opposition to organized religion. Biden certainly can use Trump’s own words to emphasize how offensive that vision is in a multicultural, multiracial democracy. Making 2024 about a values-based crusade might be essential to turning out these voters.