The Republican Party is likely to lose the House of Representatives in 2024 after a new districting ruling in New York, GOP strategist Susan Del Percio said on Saturday.
The GOP has held a razor-thin majority in the House since underperforming expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, with the margin continuing to shrink as time has gone on. At the start of the month, Representative George Santos, a New York Republican, was expelled from his seat after nearly a year's worth of allegations and reports detailing his numerous lies and improprieties. Other Republicans, like former House Speaker House Kevin McCarthy, have also announced their intention to retire from office at the end of the year, further imperiling the GOP majority come 2024.
Last week, the New York State Supreme Court issued a ruling that called for the state's congressional district boundaries to be redrawn, with observers widely predicting that Democrats in the state will use the opportunity to shift two to six Republican-led districts in their favor. The GOP notably overperformed in the traditionally blue Empire State in last year's midterms, taking seats in districts that went for Joe Biden in 2020 and helping seal their party's House majority. This call for a new congressional map could help undo those gains in the next election cycle.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, is seen. GOP political strategist Susan Del Percio predicted that the GOP will lose the House after a major New York court ruling. Anna Rose Layden/Getty Images
Del Percio, a Republican political strategist whose list of past clients includes the likes of Rudy Giuliani, suggested as much herself during a Saturday appearance on MSNBC. When asked about the significance of New York's decision for Republicans in 2024, Del Percio told host Al Sharpton that she expects the party to lose their majority in the House.
"Come January 1st, there is going to be a two-seat majority for Republicans, and they need every vote they can get," she said. "Frankly, I don't see how they hold on to the House. Of the six districts, three are absolutely competitive. Two are most likely to flip. So it will change that landscape, obviously. And I think it will lead to a [House Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries speakership. Let's put it that way."
Newsweek reached out to Republican officials via email for comment.
Republican efforts to maintain or remake congressional maps in their favor, a process known as gerrymandering, have faced major setbacks in several states beyond New York, like New Mexico, due to similar court orders. The current congressional session has also been one of the most unproductive in American history, and has been plagued with scandal and infighting, leading many pundits to predict voter discontent with GOP leadership in the chamber.