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For political scientist Francois Gemenne, recent trends are worrying.
Wavering ambition by governments and a growing belief that science is politically subjective are great causes for concern in a rapidly escalating climate crisis, an expert told AFP.
A cascade of extreme weather events have inflicted devastation in 2023, which the European Union's climate monitor says is likely to be the hottest in human history.
It underscores the urgency of slashing planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions to avert the catastrophic impacts of greater global warming.
Yet several countries have drawn criticism for moves to weaken their climate policies in recent weeks, including Sweden and Britain, which has also approved a new oil project.
Meanwhile in the United States, climate-skeptic presidential candidates—notably Donald Trump—are Republican frontrunners.
For Francois Gemenne, a political scientist who contributed to the last report series of the UN's expert advisory panel, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the trends are worrying.
"I am very concerned by a whole series of climbdowns we are seeing from a political or economic point of view," the Belgian told AFP.
The IPCC lead author cited British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's latest policy changes and leading Republican politicians in the United States "who do not recognize the scientific reality of climate change".
"What bothers me is the fact that science, for a part of the population that might be growing, is becoming a matter of belief, opinion, even ideology," said Gemenne.
Current climate-related damage is happening with global temperatures at around 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and as the world lurches towards breaching the key 1.5C target agreed in Paris in 2015.
Gemenne warned that climate trends may even exceed the predictions of some modeling, describing the situation as a "merciless machine".
The climate chaos may prove that humanity has not yet fully grasped the "deeply structural character" of climate change, he added.
"Until we reach carbon neutrality, heat records are going to be systematically broken week after week, month after month, year after year. It's possible that reality goes a little beyond the models."
One of the trickiest challenges governments face is weighing the urgency of climate action and the investments needed for the green transition against short-term challenges: global inflation, an energy crisis driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and squeezed household budgets.
There is a perception that fighting climate change implies giving up on luxuries taken for granted in much of the wealthier parts of the world, such as high levels of consumption, air travel or eating meat.
But in the face of this "climate inertia", Gemenne believes people must be shown how climate action is in their interest.
"We always describe it as a list of efforts to make, sacrifices, giving up, things we do not really feel like doing," he said.
"We must show why it is in our interests and therefore how life can change for the better."
SunwheelDance on September 30th, 2023 at 20:51 UTC »
Alternative Onion-esque headline: Scientists failing to grasp 'political reality' of climate: expert
sunnyspiders on September 30th, 2023 at 16:23 UTC »
We live in a world where reality is no longer acknowledged if someone’s job depends on it not being acknowledged.
Corporate cognitive dissonance will destroy us all because it says so in the policy manual.
This mindset has infected government in hyper capitalist society.
Billiusboikus on September 30th, 2023 at 11:30 UTC »
Climate change is going to absolutely transform this planet. It boggles the mind how even politicians who accept climate change from countries who are acting on climate don't see the problems they talk about as linked.
Europe worried about immigration, wait until all of North Africa is regularly facing 50 degree heat.
Food inflation high now due to the failure of the Ukraine bread basket? What about when 2 breadbaskets fail due to extreme heat. What about when a third fails due to climate change induced war.
Many western nations and china are waking up to renewables and later nuclear as a route to energy security in an increasingly insecure world. So they act as both a preventative to more carbon emissions and a mitigating hedge against fuel shocks. But there needs to be comprehensive, multinational immigration reform, R&D into food production, vertical farms, GM crops, Agrovoltiacs etc.
Countries like Italy are facing an absolutely dire situation when glacier melt runs low. How are countries going to source fresh water? De salination etc.
In the face of all these compounding threats it seems that many are re assured by the fact that climate change wont kill us all. No it wont, but it is a chronic stressor that will only ramp up over time, increasing the risk of other existential threats and our ability to cope with them.
I think the end result is climate change will happen and maybe some nations will wake up enough to ensure they mitigate, primarily with water security, food security, energy security and border security.
Then if things are on the bad end of projections, which shockingly despite our strides in several areas is starting to look likely, there will be knee jerk geo-engineering projects. Not even necessarily by powerful state actors. Localised sulphur based aerosols are not even that expensive.