Taiwan remains an important potential flashpoint between China and the United States. Given the geographic distance between the United States and Taiwan and the military challenge of defeating a major attack by China, an accurate assessment of Taiwan's ability to sustain a defense can be a critical factor for U.S. decisionmakers and planners. In this report, the authors develop a framework for assessing a country's capacity to resist a large-scale military attack. In that framework, a country's ability to withstand such an attack depends on four variables: political leadership and social cohesion, military effectiveness, durability, and military intervention by an ally. The authors then use that framework to assess Taiwan's capacity to resist an attack by China for 90 days — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. An accurate assessment of Taiwan's ability to withstand a large-scale attack by China could help U.S. decisionmakers and planners better anticipate and respond in such a situation.
This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
nofxet on August 17th, 2023 at 03:12 UTC »
The part I never understood on this debate is what is China’s game plan is for a rapid amphibious invasion of an entire island without the other side noticing. In the buildup to the invasion there is no way to go undetected. You just need such a massive buildup of ships and logistics. Ships are hard to hide from satellites. They are also hard to quickly replace. Even if China is willing to sacrifice every last soldier, those soldiers will be standing on the shore of mainland China and their intense patriotism won’t get them across the straits. On the defensive, Anti-ship missiles and submarines are easy to conceal and will turn those straits into a ship graveyard.
MrDaBomb on August 16th, 2023 at 19:05 UTC »
Invasion has always been contrary to china's interests regardless whether they can actually conquer the place... Hence their long term (unchanged) policy of seeking diplomatic reunification.
Nationalism is a hell of a drug. People don't like being subsumed against their will. Not to mention the general diplomatic and economic consequences.
I maintain my view that the only thing that will make China invade (or more likely blockade) is external actions such as a declaration of independence or a radical change in US posture... Unfortunately something that seems more likely by the month.
Taiwan is far more useful as a vehicle for political messaging than as a rebellious province and source of international reprisals, especially given the supreme importance the CCP give to internal stability.
Fit-Case1093 on August 16th, 2023 at 16:42 UTC »
Key Findings
Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat by China within 90 days
The authors identify four key variables for evaluating a country's capacity to resist a high-end attack: political leadership and social cohesion, military effectiveness, durability (i.e., the ability to manage and sustain the economic and human costs of conflict), and military intervention by an ally.
For insight into Taiwan's capacity, analysts should pay close attention to the quality and strength of Taiwan's political leadership and the degree of social cohesion in the lead-up to a crisis or conflict. The other variables should be regarded as of secondary importance.
Even though Taiwan has fewer armaments and troops than China does, that does not doom the island to defeat. However, even if Taiwan's military dramatically improves its combat-effectiveness, China's military advantage will likely continue to grow because of China's enormous resource advantage.
The impact of severe casualties and economic loss likely would cut two ways in a major war. Initially, Taiwan's public probably would rally around the national leadership and favor resisting an aggressive China. However, over the long term, heavy costs of conflict likely would erode public support for continuing the war.
Because of Taiwan's military disadvantages and low durability, successfully withstanding a large-scale Chinese attack would require military intervention by the United States. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a robust U.S. military intervention, China's enormous advantage in military resources likely would allow it to eventually subjugate the island.