Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

Authored by rand.org and submitted by RongbingMu
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The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. The tasks that the nation expects its military forces and other elements of national power to do internationally exceed the means that are available to accomplish those tasks. Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and reconstituted forces and China's economic takeoff and concomitant military modernization. This report offers ideas on how to address shortcomings in defense preparations.

Fighting Together: The Evolving Capabilities of Key U.S. Allies and Partners

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Linny911 on August 9th, 2023 at 17:31 UTC »

The issue is more economics+demographic than military. No amount of more military spending by US and allies will mean much in the long term if the current economic relation that it gifted CCP with doesn't change. As much as actions need to be done on the military front, a lot of actions need to be done to redirect imports/investments to elsewhere, or pay the high price of cheap goods that could be sourced elsewhere when it comes due.

There's geopolitical angle of doing it too. China's neighbors whom it has issues would love to be making high value manufactured goods for the West that CCP currently enjoys, instead of being banana farmers to CCP. CCP gets weakened, it's adversaries in the region will get strengthened, and West gets more reliable supply and more support among countries to the degree it doesn't now. Win-win-win.

RongbingMu on August 9th, 2023 at 14:01 UTC »

After reading about 100 pages, here are my takeaways for the Taiwan conflict:

Should the war break out near Taiwan, NATO allies cannot "defeat" China. The best course of action is to deter such a conflict from occurring. The only viable strategy for this is for Taiwan to be a porcupine and Japan also jump into the frontline. Currently, there's no indication of Taiwan adopting this porcupine-like stance other than something verbal, evidenced by its 2% defense budget and the absence of urgent, effective defense reforms. While Japan has historically been both a capable and committed ally, its efforts up to now have been largely passive.

So the most pressing action item is to kick both Taiwan and Japan's butts so they can get to work.

RongbingMu on August 9th, 2023 at 13:36 UTC »

Submission Statement by the analysis authors

The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. The tasks that the nation expects its military forces and other elements of national power to do internationally exceed the means that are available to accomplish those tasks. Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and reconstituted forces and China's economic takeoff and concomitant military modernization. This report offers ideas on how to address shortcomings in defense preparations. Key Findings: - The nature of warfare has evolved since the Cold War, and it has become increasingly clear that the U.S. defense strategy and posture are insolvent. The U.S. defense strategy has been predicated on U.S. military forces that were superior in all domains to those of any adversary. This superiority is gone. The United States and its allies no longer have a virtual monopoly on the technologies and capabilities that made them so dominant against adversarial forces. - U.S. and allied forces do not require superiority to defeat aggression by even their most powerful foes. The United States, acting in concert with key allies and partners, can restore credible postures of deterrence against major aggression without having to regain overmatch in any operational domain against China or Russia. - Russia's brutal and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine has awakened North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies to the risk of a wider war in the Euro-Atlantic area. This realization has motivated allies to make significant increases in defense spending and preparedness, but much more must be done over the next few years to deter and defend the region against further aggression by Russia's reconstituted military forces. - Taiwan has embraced the rhetoric of asymmetric warfare, but its budget reflects a preference for legacy systems. As a result, there is a gap between the United States' and Taiwan's goals for the direction of Taiwan's defense program.