Russian Attack Threatens Even Alternative Routes for Ukrainian Grain

Monday’s attack, which was carried out by drone, threw those options into doubt.

An executive whose ocean transportation company operates a ship waiting to load grain at Reni said he was waiting to hear whether Monday’s attack would affect insurance premiums, which were already high.

The executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of concern for the safety of the ship and its crew, said he had thought the vessel was relatively safe because nothing had happened to it in the past year.

Given Russia’s withdrawal from the deal that guaranteed safe passage for commercial vessels through the Black Sea, insurance premiums are likely to be prohibitively expensive for shipowners, analysts said.

But some shipowners may decide to travel to Ukrainian ports even with the elevated risk, if they receive assurances from the Turkish and Ukrainian governments, said Yoruk Isik, an analyst with the consultancy Bosphorus Observer, in Istanbul. In recent days, Russia has launched a series of aerial assaults on Odesa, a Black Sea port in Ukraine.

While the Danube River had been considered a safer option than the Black Sea, there were limits to how much grain could be exported through it, given capacity caps at ports, traffic backups at border crossings, fuel shortages and damaged roadways, Mr. Isik said.