Future Flashpoint: Armenia & Azerbaijan

With the Russia-Ukraine war rumbling on, one could be forgiven for overlooking developments in other parts of the world. Especially as an Irish lad, who would have to actively search for alternative news given the latest local scandal regarding the state broadcaster RTÉ grossly over-paying and under-reporting the compensation of many of its “stars”.

While the jury is still out in deciding whether the sheer incompetence of RTÉ’s management is more shocking than Bertie Ahern (while Minister for Finance) claiming he did not own a bank account, I’ll take this time to focus on the next geopolitical flashpoint. A plot of land about the same size as county Tipperary.

The Nagorno-Karabakh region, wedged between Armenia and Azerbaijan, is a place little attention is paid to. Being a stone’s throw from countries such as Iran, Iraq, Syria and Chechnya, many in the Western world are quick to dismiss the region.

While Armenia and Azerbaijan are next-door neighbours, like many next-door neighbours, they hate each other like the Devil hates holy water. The Armenians regard themselves as Christian while the Azeris regard themselves as Shia Muslim. Although the Armenians originated as quite the nomadic tribe, moving around frequently, they regard Nagorno-Karabakh as the birthplace of their civilisation as it’s the site of one of their oldest settlements.

On the Georgian border, at the base of the Caucasus Mountains, both of these countries guard the entrance paths to the Russian realm. In my previous two-parter on Russia, “The Russian Bear's Bald Spot”, I describe in detail the importance to the Russian state of securing these access points. While the Soviet Union was in its hay-day, the Iron Curtain stretched far and wide across this region. Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan existed deep within the dark shadows of this Communist cloak with Nagorno-Karabakh acting as an autonomous region within the Soviet Union during this time.

When the Iron Curtain finally fell off the curtain pole in 1991 (it collapsed), the Armenians were quick off the mark, making a successful move to take Nagorno-Karabakh under their control. The fact that they presented themselves as Christians meant they could leverage huge amounts of support from the rich Western Christian world. Diaspora, particularly from the US, poured aid into the country to support the Armenian cause.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the crafty Armenians were following local developments in Ireland in the years leading up to this, because the IRA pulled exactly the same stunt in courting support from the States to help “the cause”. The most famous event of this era was the interception of the Valhalla and Marita Ann fishing boats in 1984. Ferrying arms from Boston to Ireland, the authorities seized the largest arms shipment in Irish history; 7 tons of armaments, and for good measure, over 7 thousand pounds of fish.

The seized IRA weapons on display with a suspicious lack of fish | Ulster University

With all this support, the Armenians were far better equipped than the Azeris. The war continued for a few years but ultimately the scales tipped in favour of the Armenians as the Russian’s also decided to throw their support behind them. Looking at the map, the fought-over region is deep within the Azeri territory. The sneaky Russians have a strong tendency to support minorities surrounded by majorities in neighbouring countries. Their reason – when a country on Russia’s doorstep gets a little too big for their boots, Russia can then easily ratchet-up the instability and weaken the country from within. This trick-up-the-Russian-sleeve is deployed in numerous places such as Ukraine (Crimea) and Moldova (Transnistria).

With this overwhelming support, the Armenians were successful taking the region under their control. And the the Russians? They got a military base in Armenia with about 5,000 of their own troops. The row over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. And the status quo of Armenian control over the region has been maintained with Russia’s blessing, in the form of locally stationed soldiers and tons of old Soviet equipment.

To put things into perspective, think of the geopolitical situation like this:

Two young siblings, two different TV shows desired, one TV remote. Fighting commences and the competition is ferocious. Think leg-kicking combined with turtle-shell positions on the couch. A desperate bid to protect the remote… we’ve all been there. Then, footsteps. Parent enters the room and everything stops. Nothing to see here, all is normal. The instinct to avert unwanted attention from the far superior power is inherently embedded. While everything is on ice, once said parent leaves the room, the bell rings and the fighting recommences over the scared TV remote.

Parent = Russia Siblings = Armenia & Azerbaijan TV remote = Nagorno-Karabakh

The presence of Russian “Peacekeepers” was enough to keep Azerbaijan waiting patiently on the sideline for over 25 years. In this time, the Azeris have been slowly preparing, putting themselves into a position where they can swallow up the region – taking it back under their control entirely. “Tiocfaidh ár lá”, as they say in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan has been busy earning geopolitical brownie points in recent years, emerging as a trusted, alternative source of energy to the European Union. Russia invading Ukraine accelerated this development, as Europe had to look elsewhere to secure its energy requirements. Baku was its knight in shining armour. This has elevated Azerbaijan’s geopolitical position to the point that if they were to step on some Armenian toes, they’re less likely to face sanctions or reprisals from the Western world. Europeans know all too well not bite the hand that feeds them.

Besides building up political leeway, Azerbaijan has also been busy in the economic-gym for the upcoming bout. For the Geopolitical Tale of the Tape, the situation does not look good for Armenia.

Armenia’s economy has a GDP of about $14 billion while Azerbaijan’s is 4 times as large, weighing in at $55 billion.

Armenia has a population of just under 3 million people while Azerbaijan has a bustling 10 million.

Armenia is stocked full of old shitty Soviet military equipment while the Azeris have been writing endless checks for the latest cutting-edge military technology such as small attack drones bought from Turkey.

The overwhelming advantage the Azeris hold was already tested at the end 2020. Over the course of a few weeks, Azerbaijan launched an attack on Armenia almost exclusively with drones. By the 3rd week, almost all military equipment in Nagorno-Karabakh, including the Armenian’s entire air defense system was wiped out.

Since that little taster, the empowered Azeri military has also blockaded the Lachin Corridor - the only road that links Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Despite causing major essential supply disruptions to the region, the Azeri government has faced no real chastisement from the international community.

“Some people say the best thing about Castletown Nagorno-Karabakh is the road out of it. But ya have to use that road to get back into it as well.”

As bad as the situation is for Armenia, it will progressively get worse. As Russia commits more resources to the Ukraine war effort, they are forced to pull more and more from other regions, in places exactly like Nagorno-Karabakh.

The pressure being applied by Azerbaijan is clearly being felt in Nagorno-Karabakh. Two months ago, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Pashinyan, announced he would recognize Azerbaijan’s claim over the region which caused widespread criticism at home and outrage by the ethnic Armenian majority living in Nagorno-Karabakh. Even the Armenian Apostolic Church is now demanding Pashinyan’s resignation over the pursuit of a deal with Azerbaijan. 94% of the Armenian population regard themselves as followers of this church. With elections in Armenia not due until 2026, there is a real risk that the government will be overthrown to combat this unpopular suggestion.

Tensions are high in Nagorno-Karabakh too. Last month saw clashes along the border where soldiers on both sides of the fence were killed. This sparked calls for peace talks to calm tensions. With Azerbaijan’s seriously advantageous position, the locals in the region are now backed into a corner. Peace talks or not, the Azeris have waited decades for this opportunity and will not stop until it is theirs.

Once this domino falls, it will become clear to the world that Russia is all-in on the Ukraine invasion. They will increasingly be forced to rob Peter to pay Paul, by bringing its military resources and capabilities home from abroad. This diminishes Russian power projection beyond its borders. This creates opportunities. Other countries that have been afraid or held back from chasing their own patriotic objectives will start to think again.

As the saying goes, when the cat’s away the mice will play. What other mice are there waiting for their chance? Moldova and Transnistria, Uzbekistan and the neighbouring Stans, Georgia and Ossetia, Japan and the Sakhalin / Kuril Islands… meow.