Why India and France need each other to maintain their strategic 'autonomy'

It’s tempting to call it the French connection. But the truth is it’s more than that, as the warmth of the exchanges, and the presentation of the prestigious ‘Grand Cross of the Legion of Honour’ testifies to. It’s a relationship that goes back to the 1960’s when France stepped in to assist us in space, offered enriched uranium to our nuclear reactor, and never ever lectured us on our nuclear program. Paris and Delhi have been on a quietly cooperative track for years, based on sound business sense and an appreciation of the others’ refusal to play camp politics. So when the Prime Minister goes to France, there’s a lot to expect both in hard terms and in international signaling.

Which is why most people would have been surprised by the negative reporting of major French outlets like France24 or from politicians like Jean Luc Melenchon, head of a radical left party, or from the Green party. Criticism of India is rare in France, but this can be ascribed in part to President Marcon’s changed circumstances. Last year, despite being elected President a second time, a rare event in its history, his centrist coalition ‘Ensemble’ lost a majority in Parliament in elections, in what watchers called a ‘democratic shock’. Melenchon and the Left’s ambitions have since grown as they outpaced their 2017 records, as has that of the Far Right under Marine le Pen who let it be remembered, scored 41.5 per cent against Macron in Presidential elections. Those internal divisions explain – also in part – the violent opposition against pension reforms in March this year, and the criticisms of Macron’s embrace – quite literally – of Prime Minister Modi. On the other hand, none of this explains the European Parliament’s resolution against India, that includes an entirely uninformed paragraph on Manipur violence – and a call to protect minorities ‘such as Manipur Christians’ which in itself shows a lack of uniform civil rights consideration within the EU. None of this would normally worry New Delhi, except that it also includes a determination that “human rights be integrated into all areas of the EU-India partnership, including in trade”. That, at a time when India is negotiating an India-EU Free trade Pact. It’s not a bit of use saying that Delhi did not see fit to comment on riots in Europe or the tragic drowning of refugees as Europe closes its border against the very conflicts it has created. In such a situation, India needs a so far neutral country like France – specifically the Macron government – to negotiate its side of the story. The trouble is that polls indicate that the average French voter is fed up and Macron is losing popularity. Meanwhile, In its quarterly outlook, the Bank of France said the euro zone’s second-biggest economy would grow 0.1 per cent in the current quarter from the previous three months and 0.2 per cent in both the third and fourth quarters. The high inflation and the shocks of the Ukraine war are not going anywhere, and Macron and his party need to quickly improve economic indicators if they are to win. That’s where India comes in.

Defence deals need to develop into a partnership

First, it’s tempting to see the whole relationship in terms of the big ticket Rafael fighter aircraft and submarines. All make for great pictures on prime time television, but are really continuation of existing programs. The real deal will be on the follow ons. The three attack submarines sanctioned, will add to five already operational, with the added value that a possible deal will keep the Mazagaon Docks operational, and reduce the serious depletion of the fleet.

What’s up for grabs is the future P-75(I) which is to be on a ‘strategic partnership model’, deal is likely to be worth more than Rs 45,000 crore. Already foreign firms are lining up to offer what could be loosely called ‘co-production’, including from Germany and Spain. France will certainly be a hot contender. Then there’s the Rafale-M order for the INS Vikrant, also vital because a carrier without aircraft is of zero use, and because existing inventories make maintenance easier. An additional advantage should have been that Dassault Aviation and the Reliance Group were already in a joint venture for parts. But it now seems that the two are to dissolve their partnership. This harks back to a time when Dassault refused to certify Rafael’s produced by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) leading to further delays. The problem with offsets or joint production has always been the inability to absorb technology in India, or the tendering system which keeps out small innovators. Meanwhile, given that the present Rafael buy is also a stop gap one, Paris should be made aware that a future hard Twin-Engine Deck-Based Fighter Aircraft (TEDBF) is in the pipeline in a probable SPA model.

Meanwhile Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is making waves as he announced that India would be looking for over 2000 aircrafts in the next decade. Airbus already has an order of the decade for 500 aircraft from Indigo. Dassault has bought into Airbus, in fact both are going to produce the next generation fighter accordingly. Tata Aerospace has partnered with Airbus to produce doors for the A320neo aircraft family, a contract signed in March last year. Whether the Indigo deal can be weighted in favour of local manufacture of more parts is unclear. But with such massive buys, the French have every reason to be happy – and thereby roll out the red carpet – in terms of commercial buys in particular.

Meanwhile, the high spot of relations is the series of military exercises between the two going back to the 1990’s. France is very conscious of the fact that with 93 per cent of its Exclusive Economic zone in the Indian Ocean, it is very much an Indo-Pacific power. For India, it is an engagement to the Arabian sea that is not quite covered by the Quad construct. It is as well to remember that the whole has been helped by the fact that the two signed off on a series of agreements in 2018 that allowed for logistics agreements for reciprocal access, and notably an agreement exchange and reciprocal protection of classified or protected information between the National Security Advisors. In other words, a considerable part of the agreements signed with the US in fanfare, was already in place with the French. And on 13 and 14 March, 2023, the multilateral cooperation exercise LA PEROUSE brought together seven nations involved in maritime security in the Indo-Pacific: India, Australia, Canada, the United States, France, Japan and the United Kingdom in the Bay of Bengal. To do all of that, we need more ships and aircraft. That closes the circle.

France also has a long relationship with our space agency going back to the 1960’s. An agreement in the 2018 set the ‘vision’ thing, foreseeing cooperation in future moon rovers among other projects, all significant as Chandrayaan shows exceptional promise. The recent unveiling of an imaginative new space policy will allow private enterprises to engage in a wealth of downstream activity. The ISRO is the second biggest partner for the French National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) after NASA, which is really saying something. India’s astronauts will get assistance from the MEDES space clinic. However, typically high costs have often proved a barrier. The joint Trishna Satellite mission has been in the works since at least 2018, and has yet to see the light.

In the nuclear field, the Jaitapur nuclear project touted as the largest in the world and signed in 2009, saw difficulties as the original company Areva went bankrupt in 2016. More recently a techno-commercial offer was provided by its successor Electricite de France (EDF) in 2020, but problems continued over unit costs and liability. The European Pressurised reactors (EPR) are said to have better safety features, but have been plagued by cost overruns and delays as in Finland (a full 13 years behind schedule), and in France and the UK. As of now, Delhi’s shift to Small Modular Reactors is eminently sensible, and could finally see the France deal come to fruition.

In sum, there are hiccups galore, in the bilateral ‘pas de deux’. While our trade is some $11 billion, Paris has a $80 billion bilateral relationship with China. Not just that, France has signed on to a $1.5 billion deal with Beijing for infrastructure projects across Asia and in East Europe. But look at it like this, China has overtaken the US to become our largest trading partner. But as we chummy up in the Indo-Pacific, France will have real limitations on how far it will go with China. And in reality, so do we. That among a host of other things lies at the heart of the ‘autonomy’ that both countries swear by, even as they work together in an increasingly violent world, where the market is here, not in Europe. And perhaps not even in China. That’s up to us both to bring about.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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