Republicans Set to Lose Multiple Seats Due to Supreme Court Ruling

The Republicans could lose several seats in the House of Representatives due to a surprise Supreme Court ruling which will create a new Black majority district in Alabama, according to a new study.

On Thursday the Supreme Court backed a lower court's ruling, by five votes to four, which found the districts drawn up by the state violate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits "discrimination on the basis of race" in the electoral process. Chief Justice John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh, both widely regarded as conservatives, voted with the court's three liberal members to deliver the result.

The ruling means the boundaries of Alabama's seven House districts will need to be redrawn ahead of the 2024 congressional elections, in a move that is expected to benefit the Democrats. It will also increase pressure on other Republican states to follow suit, strengthening the Democratic position in North Carolina and Louisiana.

U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy walks to the House Chambers to open up the legislative session in the U.S. Capitol Building on June 05, 2023 in Washington, DC. The House Republicans could lose a number of seats due to a Supreme Court ruling, according to a non-partisan analysis. Anna Moneymaker/GETTY

The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan analytics website, updated its ratings for five House districts following the ruling.

Alabama's 1st and 2nd congressional districts, currently represented by Republicans Jerry Carl and Barry Moore respectively, have been changed from "solid Republican" to "toss up."

The same has happened to Louisiana's 5th and 6th districts, putting seats currently held by Republicans Julia Letlow and Garret Graves, at risk to the Democrats.

New @CookPolitical: in the wake of the SCOTUS Alabama decision, we're shifting five House ratings in Democrats' direction. It's very likely two formerly Solid R seats will end up in Solid D. https://t.co/MXV2dJeIdc pic.twitter.com/q0FNwZMwc7 — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 8, 2023

Finally North Carolina's 1st congressional district, which is occupied by Democrat Don Davis, transitions from "toss up" to "lean Democrat."

However the Cook Political Report does add a caveat to its predictions, commenting: "Until courts or legislatures enact remedial plans, it's difficult to predict exactly which Republican incumbents will be impacted."

The Supreme Court's decision could open the door to additional legal challenges in other states whose maps have faced contention from critics arguing they purposefully dilute minority voters to favor Republicans. Louisiana and Georgia—whose state legislatures passed redistricting plans with similar characteristics to Alabama's—could face renewed legal challenges to their maps on the grounds they disproportionately diminish the power of the state's voters.

Thursday's court ruling was welcomed by President Joe Biden, who repeated calls for Congress to pass wider ranging voting reform.

"Today's decision confirms the basic principle that voting practices should not discriminate on account of race, but our work is not done," he commented.

However Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall insisted the state will continue the fight, stating: "Although the majority's decision is disappointing, this case is not over."

Derrick Johnson, president of civil rights group the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) saluted the decision as "a victory for Black America and a triumph for our democracy."