Poland builds Europe’s largest land force to counter Russian threat

Christmas came early for Captain Marek Adamiak and the troops of Poland's 11th Artillery Regiment.

Stationed not far from the Russian border, his unit has long grappled with outdated kit.

But in mid-December they received 24 South-Korean made K9 self-propelled howitzers that can hit targets up to 34 miles away, bringing new and deadly capabilities to the regiment.

“As an artillery officer I’m excited by the new equipment,” Captain Adamiak told The Telegraph. “We can manoeuvre better, we can shoot from anywhere. There is no place we can’t shoot from. We had a lot of old artillery but now we have very new weapons."

Given the war happening in neighbouring Ukraine, it's given them the confidence that if conflict came to their doorstep, they would now have the weapons to fight back. "We can see from the way Ukrainians use artillery that they need to be very fast: into action, fire and move on," he said.

The 24 guns now in his regiment’s care are just the tip of a massive defence spending programme by Poland.

Polish soldiers seen at a training ground in Nowa Deba in September 2022 as part of joint exercises with the US and UK - NurPhoto

Spurred on by war next door and the growing fear that Poland could one day be in the sights of a Kremlin looking to return to the days when the Russian empire once stretched to River Vistula, the Polish government is determined to arm up - and fast.

This year it will spend 4 percent of its GDP on defence, an amount double the Nato requirement, and one that will make Poland the biggest, per-capita, spender on defence in the alliance.

Some of the deals for new equipment pre-date the Ukraine war when Poland, already conscious of the Russian threat, had started to revamp armed forces still burdened with a lot of Soviet-era equipment.

But Putin’s invasion turbo-charged the process, and prompted a host of new contracts to be signed as well.

"The criminal assault carried out by the Russian Federation, targeting Ukraine, and the unpredictable nature of Putin means that we need to accelerate the equipment modernisation even further,” Mariusz Blaszczak, the Polish defence minister, told the Defence24 portal.

“It is of key importance to increase the levels of security as fast as possible for Poland. We can do this only by creating a strong military. Strong enough to deter any potential aggressor from deciding to attack.”

No one can doubt Poland’s ambition.

To start with, it has placed orders for 1,000 K2 main battle tanks from South Korea, and 250 brand new M1A2 SEPv3 Abram tanks from the US. This will turn Poland into the owner of Europe’s biggest tank force, dwarfing the UK’s fleet of 227.

Its artillery will be bolstered by the arrival of 600 K9s, 18 HIMARS launchers with 9,000 rockets, and 288 K239 Chunmoo MRL systems from South Korea.

Over 1,000 Polish-made Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles will carry Polish troops into battle, while air cover will come from 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters bought from the US, and 48 FA-50 combat aircraft now on order from South Korea.

“We are changing our equipment very, very quickly," said Captain Adamiak. "It really is revolution, not evolution.”

All of this will be underscored by plans to double the size of the Polish Army to 300,000, which would turn Poland into Europe’s biggest military power, in terms of manpower, west of Ukraine.

Talks are also underway about building a "massive arms factory" in collaboration with the UK, in part to help produce and repair equipment and weapons destined for Ukraine.

Civilians and soldiers at a 'Train With The Army' military programme run by 16th Airborne Battalion in Krakow in February - NurPhoto

The equipment, however, comes with a hefty price tag. Poland has enjoyed years of economic growth, and GDP is still predicted to grow this year despite the economic ramifications of the war in Ukraine, but the cost of its lavish defence spending spree is going to be substantial.

Poland plans to spend to spend some £85 billion by 2035 on weapons, and this year’s defence budget stands at a record PLN 97 billion (£18 billion) But Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, a Polish newspaper, has estimated the actual 2023 amount could soar to £24 billion when off-budget funds are included.

This level of spending is not without risks.

“I fear that all of this spending could drain the budget, if not properly managed” said Magdalena Jakubowska, a defence expert and vice president of Res Publica-Visegrad Insight, a foundation covering Central European politics.

“The public may not be aware that there may well have to be cuts to certain—civilian projects. We’ve had stable economic growth for the past few years, but now we are close to a recession. If we don’t boost the economy with the EU money (from a pandemic recovery fund), which we still have not got, then the situation could become critical.”

The European Commission has denied Poland access to around £30 billion in grants and cheap loans from the EU's post-pandemic Recovery and Resilience Facility owing to a dispute over the rule of law. The Polish government has introduced legislation that might resolve the deadlock but for the time being the money remains out of reach.

Polish soldiers conduct an artillery live-fire drill with K-55A1 self-propelled howitzers at an army training range in Paju, South Korea in March - YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

To help Poland, last year, the US Congress approved $288.6 million (£239 million) in military financing to “deter and defend” against the increased threat from Russia. The cash will help but with inflation running at around 17 per cent in Poland and economic growth slowing the defence budget could become difficult to meet.

Despite this, Ms Jakubowska added that so far Poles seem prepared to shoulder the financial burden.

“With war, perhaps, just around the corner Poles realise you have to sacrifice to take care of the national interest. If people fear a war, then they are understanding.”

Cross-party support for military spending also looks set to continue despite the deep and often bitter political divisions in Poland. Conscious of the threat posed by Russia, opposition parties have for the most part accepted the need for Warsaw to spend, at least for now -if only to avoid the fate of their neighbour.

Poland goes to the polls in the autumn, and defence, and who can best defend the country, will no doubt become an election issue.

“I have said many times that it is better to be in debt, and even have to make cuts to budgets in other areas, than to be occupied,” said Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Law and Justice, Poland’s governing party and considered by many to be the most powerful politician in the country, earlier this year.

“Whoever has seen what is happening in Ukraine should have no doubt about this.”