Ukraine war nudging Cambodia toward the West

Insinuations from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and top Western officials last week that China might provide weapons to Russia could put Cambodia’s Beijing-friendly Prime Minister Hun Sen in a tight geopolitical spot.

Unlike several neighbors and its close partner Beijing, Hun Sen’s government has seemingly aligned with Western capitals in vehemently denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago – or, at least, many Western officials believe that Cambodia is aligned with them on that front.

Hun Sen, a self-declared “ironclad” friend of Chinese President Xi Jinping and who visited Beijing earlier this month, was quick to call Russia’s actions last February an “act of aggression” and an “invasion.”

Cambodia was one of nearly 100 countries that co-sponsored a UN General Assembly resolution in March 2022 that condemned Russia’s action and did the same for another resolution later in the year.

“I still stand in solidarity with Ukrainian people against the invasion,” Hun Sen said in a public speech on March 28 last year.

It is thought that this hasn’t impacted Cambodia’s close relations with China, formally neutral over the Ukraine war but which has been criticized for propping up Moscow’s sanction-hit economy and benefiting from bottom-dollar imports of Russian oil and gas.

But if Beijing was to intervene more closely on Moscow’s side, as leading officials in the West now say is possible, that would seemingly put Hun Sen’s government in the Western camp of defending Ukrainian sovereignty.

Escalated superpower tensions would be far from conducive as Phnom Penh’s attention is consumed by ensuring a smooth dynastic handover to Hun Sen’s eldest son, Hun Manet, and getting the economy back on track after the Covid-19 pandemic, which requires stable trade relations with the West.

“Lethal aid to Russia from China does put Cambodia in an awkward position,” Sophal Ear, associate dean and associate professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University, said.

He reckons it’s not a major problem, though; Cambodia’s government will “simply say that Phnom Penh does not interfere in the internal affairs of Beijing.”

Cambodia is heavily dependent on China for its economic well being. Image: Twitter / Bilaterals.org

Blinken, the US foreign policy chief, said recently that he has “deep concerns” about the “possibility that China will provide lethal material support to Russia.”

“To date, we have seen Chinese companies…provide non-lethal support to Russia for use in Ukraine. The concern that we have now is based on information we have that they’re considering providing lethal support,” he told American media following a meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference last weekend.

Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, also said around the same time it would be a “red line” for Brussels if China provides arms to Russia.

“We are also increasingly concerned that China may be planning to provide lethal support for Russia’s war,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday last week.

Beijing predictably responded with anger. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said his government “will never accept the US pointing fingers at Sino-Russian relations or even coercing us.”

The Chinese government has also accused Washington of hypocrisy, given that it has provided significant military equipment and financial support to Ukraine.

As US officials announced plans to crack down on how sanctions on Russia are evaded globally, Wang, China’s top diplomat, visited Moscow on February 22.

“A crisis is always an opportunity,” he said after meeting Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and warned that the Sino-Russian relationship was “never dictated by any third parties.”

It’s widely assumed that Putin delayed his invasion of Ukraine until after the Beijing Winter Olympics in early 2022 at the request of Xi, who around the time said bilateral relations were “without limits.” Russia has supported China amid tensions with the US over Taiwan.

Chinese imports of Russian crude oil surged by 45% last year, and LNG imports rose by 155%, according to reports. Russian imports of Chinese goods, especially technology, have also skyrocketed.

“Russian-Chinese relations were proceeding as planned,” Putin reportedly said. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Chinese President Xi plans to visit Moscow for a summit sometime in the coming months.

If Beijing was to begin providing weapons to Russia or more closely cooperate over the war in Ukraine, it is unclear how Cambodia’s government would respond.

In a speech early last year, Hun Sen noted that Russia has been a “friend” and that Cambodia “had a relationship [with them] since the 1950s,” as well as more recently when the Soviet Union was a principal benefactor of Hun Sen’s government in the 1980s. However, this friendship “will change as it has invaded Ukraine,” Hun Sen added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen (L) shake hands during an official welcome ceremony for delegations heads within the ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit in Sochi, Russia on May 20, 2016. Photo: Host Photo Agency / Anadolu Agency

When Hun Sen and Chinese President Xi spoke by phone on March 18 last year – after Cambodia co-sponsored a UN General Assembly resolution but before some of Hun Sen’s more evocative condemnations of Russia – they agreed to take a “balanced and fair position on the Ukraine situation and make positive efforts to promote peace talks,” according to paraphrasing from Chinese media.

It was not stated publicly whether the Ukraine war was discussed when Hun Sen visited Xi in Beijing earlier this month.

It has been alleged that Cambodia’s foreign ministry wanted to remain strictly neutral and abstain at UN votes, similar to Vietnam and Laos, in the days after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 last year but Hun Sen intervened and ordered his diplomat at the UN to co-sponsor a resolution condemning Moscow.

Besides his principled comments against Russia’s violation of another state’s sovereignty, in November Hun Sen spoke on the phone to Volodymr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, who reportedly invited the Cambodian prime minister to one day visit his country.

A team of Ukrainian de-miners last month visited Cambodia to receive training from the Cambodian Mine Action Center, a government agency. Hun Sen had also offered to mediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine during the ASEAN Summit Cambodia hosted last November.

“Prime Minister Hun Sen demonstrated exceptional leadership on the Ukraine question during Cambodia’s ASEAN 2022 chairmanship bringing significant and well-earned global accolades,” a prominent Cambodia-based Western analyst who requested anonymity told Asia Times.

“It would be a stunning volte-face if that position changed or if the kingdom shifted to an officially or perceived ‘China adjacent’ position regarding the war,” the analyst added.

Analysts differ on why Hun Sen’s government has taken this position. The common interpretation is Cambodia’s history of foreign invasion and aggression during the 1970s and 1980s, as well as the primacy of national sovereignty in Hun Sen’s worldview.

“We pursue a foreign policy based on the law and the UN Charter. We do not pursue a foreign policy based on force,” he said last year.

“Hun Sen’s strong stance against the Russian invasion seems personal, stemming from his memories of the 1970 US military incursion into and Vietnam’s 1980s occupation of Cambodia,” Charles Dunst, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank, said.

“Beijing likely understands that and will not necessarily expect Phnom Penh to reverse course,” he added.

Seun Sam, a political analyst at the Royal Academy of Cambodia, doesn’t think that China will supply Russia with weapons, but “even if that happens, I am sure that the government of Cambodia will not comment or say anything on that kind of activity since it is not related to Cambodia.”

The West has provided Ukraine with weapons to fight Russia. Image: Twitter

Ou Virak, president of Future Forum, a Phnom Penh-based think tank, reckons the most likely course is that Hun Sen will now simply cease commenting on the Ukraine conflict, wary of wading any deeper into a geopolitical crisis that might become the first true proxy war in the New Cold War between the US and China.

Yet, Hun Sen has been a lot quieter about Ukraine since the end of last year, noticeably since Cambodia ended its tenure as ASEAN chairman.

That has led some to suspect an alternative interpretation for why Cambodia took its seemingly principled stance on the Ukraine war: Russia’s invasion took place shortly after Cambodia assumed the regional position, so Phnom Penh felt it couldn’t shy away from the conflict like some of its Southeast Asian neighbors.

However, it also seems Cambodia’s government is keen not to be seen as too supportive of Ukraine. On January 24, the foreign affairs ministry said it “categorically dismissed” Cambodia’s designation as a “military supporter of Ukraine” on a list that had been published by a Telegram channel.

The technical training in mine clearance to Ukrainian deminers, the ministry added, was “purely made on a humanitarian basis.”

“If Cambodia needs any military assistance from Russia, we are ready to provide,” Colonel Sergei Shumilin, the deputy military attache at the Russian Embassy in Phnom Penh, said in a February 17 interview with local media in which he thanked Cambodia for its “neutrality” over the Ukraine war.

The Russian diplomat also alleged that Cambodia, as ASEAN chair, had prevented a video message by Ukrainian President Zelensky from being delivered at the regional summit in Phnom Penh last November in deference to Moscow.

Asia Times cannot confirm this, although the Ukrainian embassy in Hanoi stated last year that “Cambodian Chairmanship favored this initiative” for Zelensky to speak. A Cambodian government spokesperson could not be reached to ascertain whether Russia’s embassy in Phnom Penh is spreading disinformation.

Fresh News, a mouthpiece of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, even noted in a recent headline that “Russia Supports the Shutdown of VOD,” a reference to the Voice of Democracy, one of the country’s last independent news outlets that was forcibly closed by Hun Sen this month and thusly met with sharp Western criticism.

“It should be noted,” said Seun Sam, “that even Cambodia supported the resolution of the UN to condemn Russia but Cambodia still treats Russia as a friend and Cambodia has already treated China as the most trusted friend or the diamond friend, so Cambodia will not say anything on Russia and China’s cooperation.”

A cynical view contends that Hun Sen aligned with the Western response for self-interest. His support for Ukraine markedly changed Phnom Penh’s image in Western capitals after years of being considered, by some, as irrevocably authoritarian and allied to Beijing.

Cambodia’s relations with the West deteriorated considerably after 2017, in part because of Hun Sen’s near-total authoritarian grasp of power. Washington has spent years alleging that a secret deal was struck to allow Chinese forces access to the Ream Naval Base in southwestern Cambodia, a claim that speaks to US concerns that Cambodia cannot easily leave Beijing’s orbit.

A Cambodian naval officer salutes at the Ream Naval Base in a file photo. Image: Twitter

But speaking alongside Hun Sen at a press conference last November during his visit to Phnom Penh for the ASEAN Summit, US President Joe Biden was quick to thank Cambodia for its “clear condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

Hun Sen dined with French President Emmanuel Macron in the Elysee Palace last December during a rare tour of Europe. He was in Paris ostensibly to take part in a solidarity conference for Ukraine. Cambodia’s prime minister now boasts of having a “close relationship” with Macron, while France says Cambodia is its new “gateway” into the Indo-Pacific.

“If we look at our relationship today, the UK and Cambodia share a lot of values in common,” the British ambassador to Phnom Penh, Dominic Williams, said in a local media interview on February 13. “We work closely together on things like the war in Ukraine – where both countries have been very supportive of Ukraine.”

Others are more skeptical of Cambodia’s position.

“As we wait to see if Beijing will provide military assistance to Putin’s war in Ukraine, let’s briefly recount who China’s friends are other than Russia. Don’t worry, it’s a very short list: Cambodia, Laos, North Korea, and Pakistan. All pariahs with little strategic value,” Derek Grossman, of the Rand think tank, stated recently in a widely circulated tweet.

With New Cold War rhetoric rising in both Washington and Beijing over Ukraine, which will escalate further if Beijing offers military-related assistance to Moscow, it will become increasingly difficult for Southeast Asian countries, including Cambodia, to maintain or feign a “take no sides” approach to the superpower rivalry.

Follow David Hutt on Twitter at @davidhuttjourno