According to a senior Biden administration official, the US has obtained intelligence indicating that the Russian government devised a plan to stage a false attack depicting the Ukrainian military or intelligence forces assaulting Russian territory to set up a pretext for military action against Ukraine.
Photo by Victor Malyushev on Unsplash
The Washington Post first reported the story.
“It shows the level of cynicism, frankly, that is on the other side of this conflict,” deputy national security adviser Jon Finer told MSNBC on Thursday. “We’re not saying definitively this is what they’re going to do. We are saying that this is an option under consideration, and that they have used these sorts of pretext in the past to justify military action.”
According to the person, who was not allowed to discuss and spoke on the condition of anonymity, the plot involved the creation of a gory propaganda video that would show manufactured explosions and would include corpses and actors portraying sad mourners.
The scheme, which was exposed in declassified intel shared with Ukrainian officials and Western allies in past days, is the latest accusation by the United States and the United Kingdom that Russia is scheming to invade Ukraine under false pretenses.
On Thursday, the senior administration official also stated that if Russia changes its mind about separatist territories in eastern Ukraine—for instance, if it decides to view them as independent rather than part of Ukraine as a consequence of a legal change currently being considered by Russia’s parliament—then Moscow “could claim that the push for independence led Ukraine to ‘attack'” pro-Russian forces in the east.”To build the case for independence, Russian politicians are advancing this legislation on the false basis that Ukraine is preparing to forcibly retake this territory and that Kyiv has systematically denied local residents their basic rights,” the official said. “In line with its previous interventions, Russia would portray its actions as defending ethnic Russians and coming at the request of a sovereign government for assistance.”
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Wreckoning_mtb on February 4th, 2022 at 00:09 UTC »
It's good statecraft but bad optics. If the Russians were planning an attack, the release could discourage it, but then the US looks like it made the whole thing up.
Also, the amount of specific information the US has released makes me think they have some solid HUMINT. I'd be worried about getting burned if I was the source.
Always a balance in intel. Use it and risk the source being identified, vs don't use it and what was the point of having the source in the first place
Massive_Type5773 on February 3rd, 2022 at 22:22 UTC »
How long will they keep delaying their surprise attack that will come any day now?
StormTheTrooper on February 3rd, 2022 at 21:01 UTC »
At this point, I'm starting to believe that there'll be a diplomatic solution. Russia is complaining and piling up troops and machinery, but did not cut off official diplomatic means; Ukraine is avoiding a nationalistic call to arms and actually trying to convince the world that everything is fine (for economic reasons, I agree, but still); Germany is trying to play peacemaker and the US himself toned down the latest statements.
I feel that everyone is trying their best to flex as much as possible, but no one wants to pull the trigger. Maybe a few skirmishes in the southeast will unfold, but I seriously doubt that Russia will officially declare war on Ukraine, even with Belarus trying to play the rogue role. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but I doubt there'll be conflict beyond the Kharkiv-Donetsk line, much less Russian troops crossing the Dnieper into Kiev (which I believe would be an eventual red line for NATO to intervene).