The number of COVID-19 cases in Arizona stabilized and then decreased after sustained implementation and enforcement of statewide and locally enhanced mitigation measures, beginning approximately 2 weeks after implementation and enforcement of mask mandates and enhanced sanitations practices began on June 17; further decreases were observed during July 13–August 7, after statewide limitations and closures of certain services and businesses.
Mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), requires individual, community, and state public health actions to prevent person-to-person transmission. Community mitigation measures can help slow the spread of COVID-19; these measures include wearing masks, social distancing, reducing the number and size of large gatherings, pausing operation of businesses where maintaining social distancing is challenging, working from or staying at home, and implementing certain workplace and educational institution controls (1–4). The Arizona Department of Health Services’ (ADHS) recommendations for mitigating exposure to SARS-CoV-2 were informed by continual monitoring of patient demographics, SARS-CoV-2 community spread, and the pandemic’s impacts on hospitals. To assess the effect of mitigation strategies in Arizona, the numbers of daily COVID-19 cases and 7-day moving averages during January 22–August 7, 2020, relative to implementation of enhanced community mitigation measures, were examined. The average number of daily cases increased approximately 151%, from 808 on June 1, 2020 to 2,026 on June 15, 2020 (after stay-at-home order lifted), necessitating increased preventive measures. On June 17, local officials began implementing and enforcing mask wearing (via county and city mandates),* affecting approximately 85% of the state population. Statewide mitigation measures included limitation of public events; closures of bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks; reduced restaurant dine-in capacity; and voluntary resident action to stay at home and wear masks (when and where not mandated). The number of COVID-19 cases in Arizona peaked during June 29–July 2, stabilized during July 3–July 12, and further declined by approximately 75% during July 13–August 7. Widespread implementation and enforcement of sustained community mitigation measures informed by state and local officials’ continual data monitoring and collaboration can help prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and decrease the numbers of COVID-19 cases.
ADHS supports surveillance and investigation efforts of local public health departments, compiles surveillance and investigation information across counties, and provides infrastructure statewide to support infectious disease surveillance. Data on laboratory-confirmed and probable (5) COVID-19 cases (based on the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists case definitions)† were collected in the centralized Medical Electronic Disease Surveillance Intelligence System (MEDSIS),§ which is used by state, tribal, and county public health agencies to report human-based diseases in Arizona. Information was submitted to or entered into MEDSIS by health care providers, laboratories, local health departments, tribal entities, and ADHS. Multiple laboratory tests submitted for a single patient were combined into a single record. Specimen collection date was used for confirmed cases, and symptom onset date was used for probable cases.
Temporal trends were examined by comparing the number of daily COVID-19 cases (as of September 1)¶ and 7-day moving averages before, during, and after implementation of enhanced community mitigation measures, defined as the following: limitations on persons’ time away from their place of residence except for essential activities; certain business closures and service limitations (e.g., occupancy limitations, curbside pickup, and delivery of goods); enhanced sanitation practices**; social distancing, employee mask wearing, and symptom screenings for all businesses operating a physical location; limitations on the occurrence and size of public events; and local mandates enforcing mask use. The 7-day moving average was calculated after the cumulative case count exceeded 20 cases and is presented to describe COVID-19 trends.
On March 11, 2020, Arizona declared a public health state of emergency to prepare for, prevent, respond to, and mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Additional guidance was provided to local officials, businesses, communities, and individual persons to implement social distancing and close schools statewide (March 15); postpone and limit large gatherings to fewer than 50 persons; recommend telework options; restrict access to congregate settings; require restaurants to provide dine-out options only; and close all bars, gyms, and movie theaters in counties with confirmed COVID-19 cases (March 19) (Table). Based on Arizona data and CDC guidance (1,2), ADHS also recommended limiting persons’ time away from their place of residence except for essential activities (i.e., stay-at-home order, “Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected”)†† (March 31).
During April 1–May 15, the 7-day moving average of daily cases ranged from 154 to 443 (Figure). During April 29–May 11, Arizona initiated a phased approach for retail shops and stores, cosmetologists, and barbers to reopen and operate, and for restaurants to resume dine-in services; the stay-at-home order ended May 15.
Average daily cases increased 151% from June 1 (808) to June 15 (2,026), necessitating an increased focus on preventive measures by businesses, communities, and individual persons. Updated guidance from state officials provided local governments the authority to implement mask policies (June 17) and enforcement measures tailored to local public health needs (local policies were applicable to approximately 85% of the total Arizona population). Before June 17, mask wearing had not been widely mandated or enforced. Arizona limited organized public events to fewer than 50 persons (with some exceptions); closed bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks and recreational tubing facilities (June 29); and limited restaurants’ indoor dining to <50% capacity, with at least 6 feet of separation between patrons (July 9). The 7-day moving average of daily cases peaked during June 29–July 2 (range = 4,148–4,377), stabilized during July 3–12 (range = 3,609–4,160), and subsequently decreased 75% from July 13 (3,506) to August 7 (867). Mitigation measures put in place in June were extended through August to further limit transmission.
LeeBIanc on October 7th, 2020 at 15:17 UTC »
At a point AZ was one of the most infected states in the US too if I remember right
squealor on October 7th, 2020 at 14:22 UTC »
We dragged our governor kicking and screaming. He refused a mask mandate, so local municipalities did it. He refused to close schools, so they closed themselves. He closed the bars and whatnot after our numbers got embarrassingly high.
Growbigbuds on October 7th, 2020 at 10:51 UTC »
It's important to note that a full scale shutdown isn't needed if the population just does their part.
Standing resolute in defiance of even the most basic of mitigation efforts is exactly the attitude this virus needs to keep growing new cases.
This virus doesn't multiply in the wild, it requires hosts. Our own stubbornness is extending the impact of this virus.