OP, I'm very curious to know why you left off the last week or so of data?
If I'm counting right, the graph only goes up until Apr 18 or so, a week ago.
It just seems like an odd choice, especially seeing as 2 of the last 5 days have seen the highest death tolls yet, despite the model forecasting a drop of close to 40% from the peak.
I'm also curious to know which source you used for the number of deaths. The link you provided has the estimates but not the actuals.
![image showing [OC] Projected vs actual daily USA deaths due to COVID19](789c3bae-cbb0-51b7-b747-0ded836a103e.jpg)
Nostromo26 on April 26th, 2020 at 06:29 UTC »
Why did you stop plotting deaths on the 20th? Daily deaths haven't gone down since then. Here's a chart updated through 4/25.
buy_iphone_7 on April 26th, 2020 at 06:29 UTC »
OP, I'm very curious to know why you left off the last week or so of data?
If I'm counting right, the graph only goes up until Apr 18 or so, a week ago.
It just seems like an odd choice, especially seeing as 2 of the last 5 days have seen the highest death tolls yet, despite the model forecasting a drop of close to 40% from the peak.
I'm also curious to know which source you used for the number of deaths. The link you provided has the estimates but not the actuals.
grems411 on April 26th, 2020 at 09:15 UTC »
Looking at Italy and Spain, you won't see a rapid decline of deaths. It will a much slower process than what forecasted here.