MIT recently trained a machine learning model to accurately predict the spread of COVID-19. According to the AI, we should be seeing a plateau where the amount of new cases begins to level off in the US and Italy in the next week. This good news, however, comes with a dire warning: relaxing quarantine measures too soon will be catastrophic.
The engineers behind the AI explain the results as being very similar to the situation that happened in Singapore where quarantine and social distancing efforts managed to almost completely flatten the curve before an ill-advised return to business as usual caused a massive resurgence in COVID-19 cases.
The MIT team trained the AI to extrapolate publicly-available data for insights into the disease’s spread, taking into account how different governments handled social distancing and quarantine orders as well as other standard epidemiology parameters.
In order to ensure the model was capable of producing accurate results, the team trained it on data ranging from January through early March and then matched it’s predictions for April with actual statistics.
It turns out the machine was able to accurately predict the curve in all the countries it had data for. Per the team’s research paper:
Leveraging our neural network augmented model, we focus our analysis on four locales: Wuhan, Italy, South Korea and the United States of America, and compare the role played by the quarantine and isolation measures in each of these countries in controlling the effective reproduction number of the virus. Our results unequivocally indicate that the countries in which rapid government interventions and strict public health measures for quarantine and isolation were implemented were successful in halting the spread of infection and prevent it from exploding exponentially.
The data further indicates that the US, currently the epicenter of the pandemic, should experience “a halting of infections” around April 20th. However, the report clearly demonstrates that we should not interpret this is as the right time to relax current quarantine and social distancing measures:
We further demonstrate that relaxing or reversing quarantine measures right now will lead to an exponential explosion in the infected case count, thus nullifying the role played by all measures implemented in the US since mid March 2020.
In other words: social distancing and quarantine measures are working! Perhaps even better than many experts would have thought. But, if we abandon them too soon they will have been for naught. We’ll have to start back over at square one.
Ecosure11 on April 17th, 2020 at 17:42 UTC »
What is really disheartening is some of the most susceptible communities are the ones out there taking the greatest risk. Don't go out but, maybe a couple of times a week and try to group what I need. But, saw a woman with a heard wrap typically worn by someone on Chemo, pushing a cart with a cane hanging off the handle. She didn't look very strong for sure. She did have a mask (Thank heavens) and this store does offer pickup and delivery. If she got it, I wouldn't put money on her making it. The store was filled with elderly folks on scooters. I think it won't become real to some folks until their friends or family start dying. Hate to say, but no matter our age or condition we all sorta feel like...yeah, I'm not like the people at risk.
Tenth_10 on April 17th, 2020 at 16:55 UTC »
I'm very sorry to say, but here in France the lockdown is being worn down. People are not even seeing each other in a illegal way anymore (newspapers talked about clandestine nightclub, people fucking in their car parked in a forest, and so on), but out in the open. I've never seen so much people out there today, hugging, discussing in groups, even companies full of people. Someone working as an assistant nurse in a C19 unit has been interviewed and said "I know it's bad but I'm still seeing my girlfriend".
Everywhere people are discussing if the C19 threat is real, if it's worth losing our jobs. 18.000 victims (and counting) apparently means nothing once people are pushed a bit - and we're only at the middle of the lockdown.
Actually, this "lockdown" is now a farce. I see this, and I'm powerless.
So, what happens here show what will happen everywhere else, in every country - money will disappear before we have a treatment, and I'm terrorized by the consequences to come.
CobraPony67 on April 17th, 2020 at 16:51 UTC »
I don't need AI to figure that out. The virus is out there, we are not immune. When vaccinations and effective treatments are available, then we can treat it more like a common flu or cold. Otherwise, keep social distancing, wear masks and gloves when going out.