Against all odds, it looks like Bernie Sanders might be the Democratic nominee after all

With the first-in-the-nation Iowa Democratic caucus less than a month away, even top-tier presidential contenders like former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are struggling to capture voter attention. In a nation overwhelmed by political crises, is anyone surprised?

According to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, only a third of Americans are paying “a lot” of attention to the 2020 presidential campaign. Nearly half of those polled admitted they hadn’t given much or any thought to who they plan to support. Pundits and political elites correctly call 2020 the most consequential election in modern American history – but rank-and-file American voters are apparently in no hurry to make up their minds.

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That isn’t surprising. The December Democratic debate generated the lowest ratings of any 2020 outing, drawing just over six million viewers. That pales in comparison to the over 18 million viewers who tuned in for the first Democratic debate in June. There are increasing signs that the American people are exhausted by the nonstop nature of our modern political theater. From a contentious presidential impeachment to possible war with Iran, Americans are overloaded and burned out by an endless circus of political crises.

Among those voters who make up the Democrats’ activist base, though, a Morning Consult national poll reveals a surprising shift in the ideological makeup of Democratic politics. Unabashedly progressive candidates Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren capture nearly 40 per cent of Democratic primary voters. The appeal of a progressive presidential candidate is so strong, Morning Consult found, that even most Biden supporters consider Sanders their second choice.

Last September, I wrote about what might happen if progressive voters had to make a choice between Warren and Sanders. As Joe Biden fades in Iowa and New Hampshire, the question of how (and if) progressives unify behind a single candidate is now a pressing concern. Divided between two candidates, progressive Democrats are unwittingly providing a lifeline to Biden’s struggling campaign. Unified, their momentum becomes unstoppable.

Just last week, the Sanders campaign blew the doors off its fourth quarter fundraising, generating a staggering $34.5 million. Warren raised an impressive $21.2 million. Combined, that more than doubles Joe Biden’s $22.7 million haul. Divided though they may be, the death of the liberal wing of the Democratic Party appears greatly exaggerated.

The battle for the soul of the Democratic Party is real, and the progressive wing increasingly has both a fundraising and organizing edge.

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has emerged as the center of political gravity for both the Beltway media and progressive activists, recently flexed her muscles with a series of rallies supporting the Sanders campaign. That creates a serious challenge for Warren, who is struggling to regain momentum after a series of run-ins with progressive activists on everything from her private-sector legal work to the details of her phased Medicare-for-All plan.

Nothing has proven more surprising than the remarkable comeback of Bernie Sanders. In October, Sanders suffered a heart attack that briefly took him off the campaign trail. The Washington chattering class speculated that Sanders had reached the end of his political road.

Yet in the three months since then, Sanders has rebounded in polling and fundraising to reclaim a commanding position among the left wing of the Democratic Party. At the same time, Warren’s national polling numbers fell by nearly half. Sanders enters 2020 without any serious challenge to his dominance of the Democrats’ left flank. Now Democratic elites are concerned Sanders could be the nominee after all.

Shape Created with Sketch. The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Show all 24 left Created with Sketch. right Created with Sketch. Shape Created with Sketch. The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 1/24 Bernie Sanders The Vermont senator has launched a second bid for president after losing out to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries. He is running on a similar platform of democratic socialist reform Getty 2/24 Joe Biden The former vice president recently faced scrutiny for inappropriate touching of women, but was thought to deal with the criticism well and has since maintained a front runner status in national polling EPA 3/24 Elizabeth Warren The Massachusetts senator is a progressive Democrat, and a major supporter of regulating Wall Street Reuters 4/24 DROPPED OUT: Bill De Blasio The New York mayor announced his bid on 16 May 2019. He emerged in 2013 as a leading voice in the left wing of his party but struggled to build a national profile and has suffered a number of political setbacks in his time as mayor AFP/Getty 5/24 Pete Buttigieg The centrist Indiana mayor and war veteran would be the first openly LGBT+ president in American history Getty 6/24 Michael Bloomberg, a late addition to the 2020 race, announced his candidacy after months of speculation in November. He has launched a massive ad-buying campaign and issued an apology for the controversial "stop and frisk" programme that adversely impacted minority communities in New York City when he was mayor Getty Images 7/24 DROPPED OUT: Beto O'Rourke The former Texas congressman formally launched his bid for the presidency in March. He ran on a progressive platform, stating that the US is driven by "gross differences in opportunity and outcome" AP 8/24 Steve Bullock The Montana governor announced his bid on 14 May. He stated "We need to defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that lets campaign money drown out the people's voice, so we can finally make good on the promise of a fair shot for everyone." He also highlighted the fact that he won the governor's seat in a red [Republican] state Reuters 9/24 Cory Booker The New Jersey Senator has focused on restoring kindness and civility in American politics throughout his campaign, though he has failed to secure the same level of support and fundraising as several other senators running for the White House in 2020 Getty 10/24 Wayne Messam Mayor of the city of Miramar in the Miami metropolitan area, Wayne Messam said he intended to run on a progressive platform against the "broken" federal government. He favours gun regulations and was a signatory to a letter from some 400 mayors condemning President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord Vice News 11/24 DROPPED OUT: Kirsten Gillibrand The New York Senator formally announced her presidential bid in January, saying that “healthcare should be a right, not a privilege” Getty 12/24 Kamala Harris The former California attorney general was introduced to the national stage during Jeff Sessions’ testimony. She has endorsed Medicare-for-all and proposed a major tax-credit for the middle class AFP/Getty 13/24 John Delaney The Maryland congressman was the first to launch his bid for presidency, making the announcement in 2017 AP 14/24 Tulsi Gabbard The Hawaii congresswoman announced her candidacy in January, but has faced tough questions on her past comments on LGBT+ rights and her stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Getty 15/24 Andrew Yang The entrepreneur announced his presidential candidacy by pledging that he would introduce a universal basic income of $1,000 a month to every American over the age of 18 Getty 16/24 Julian Castro The former San Antonio mayor announced his candidacy in January and said that his running has a “special meaning” for the Latino community in the US Getty 17/24 Marianne Williamson The author and spiritual adviser has announced her intention to run for president. She had previously run for congress as an independent in 2014 but was unsuccessful Getty 18/24 DROPPED OUT: Eric Swalwell One of the younger candidates, Swalwell has served on multiple committees in the House of Representatives. He intended to make gun control central to his campaign but dropped out after his team said it was clear there was no path to victory Getty 19/24 DROPPED OUT: Seth Moulton A Massachusetts congressman, Moulton is a former US soldier who is best known for trying to stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming speaker of the house. He dropped out of the race after not polling well in key states Getty 20/24 Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is a Minnesota senator who earned praise for her contribution to the Brett Kavanaugh hearings Getty 21/24 DROPPED OUT: Jay Inslee Inslee has been governor of Washington since 2013. His bid was centred around climate change AFP/Getty 22/24 DROPPED OUT: John Hickenlooper The former governor of Colorado aimed to sell himself as an effective leader who was open to compromise, but failed to make a splash on the national stage Getty 23/24 DROPPED OUT: Tim Ryan Ohio representative Tim Ryan ran on a campaign that hinged on his working class roots, though his messaging did not appear to resonate with voters Getty 24/24 The former Massachusetts governor launched a late 2020 candidacy and received very little reception. With just a few short months until the first voters flock to the polls, the former governor is running as a centrist and believes he can unite the party's various voting blocs STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images 1/24 Bernie Sanders The Vermont senator has launched a second bid for president after losing out to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries. He is running on a similar platform of democratic socialist reform Getty 2/24 Joe Biden The former vice president recently faced scrutiny for inappropriate touching of women, but was thought to deal with the criticism well and has since maintained a front runner status in national polling EPA 3/24 Elizabeth Warren The Massachusetts senator is a progressive Democrat, and a major supporter of regulating Wall Street Reuters 4/24 DROPPED OUT: Bill De Blasio The New York mayor announced his bid on 16 May 2019. He emerged in 2013 as a leading voice in the left wing of his party but struggled to build a national profile and has suffered a number of political setbacks in his time as mayor AFP/Getty 5/24 Pete Buttigieg The centrist Indiana mayor and war veteran would be the first openly LGBT+ president in American history Getty 6/24 Michael Bloomberg, a late addition to the 2020 race, announced his candidacy after months of speculation in November. He has launched a massive ad-buying campaign and issued an apology for the controversial "stop and frisk" programme that adversely impacted minority communities in New York City when he was mayor Getty Images 7/24 DROPPED OUT: Beto O'Rourke The former Texas congressman formally launched his bid for the presidency in March. He ran on a progressive platform, stating that the US is driven by "gross differences in opportunity and outcome" AP 8/24 Steve Bullock The Montana governor announced his bid on 14 May. He stated "We need to defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that lets campaign money drown out the people's voice, so we can finally make good on the promise of a fair shot for everyone." He also highlighted the fact that he won the governor's seat in a red [Republican] state Reuters 9/24 Cory Booker The New Jersey Senator has focused on restoring kindness and civility in American politics throughout his campaign, though he has failed to secure the same level of support and fundraising as several other senators running for the White House in 2020 Getty 10/24 Wayne Messam Mayor of the city of Miramar in the Miami metropolitan area, Wayne Messam said he intended to run on a progressive platform against the "broken" federal government. He favours gun regulations and was a signatory to a letter from some 400 mayors condemning President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord Vice News 11/24 DROPPED OUT: Kirsten Gillibrand The New York Senator formally announced her presidential bid in January, saying that “healthcare should be a right, not a privilege” Getty 12/24 Kamala Harris The former California attorney general was introduced to the national stage during Jeff Sessions’ testimony. She has endorsed Medicare-for-all and proposed a major tax-credit for the middle class AFP/Getty 13/24 John Delaney The Maryland congressman was the first to launch his bid for presidency, making the announcement in 2017 AP 14/24 Tulsi Gabbard The Hawaii congresswoman announced her candidacy in January, but has faced tough questions on her past comments on LGBT+ rights and her stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Getty 15/24 Andrew Yang The entrepreneur announced his presidential candidacy by pledging that he would introduce a universal basic income of $1,000 a month to every American over the age of 18 Getty 16/24 Julian Castro The former San Antonio mayor announced his candidacy in January and said that his running has a “special meaning” for the Latino community in the US Getty 17/24 Marianne Williamson The author and spiritual adviser has announced her intention to run for president. She had previously run for congress as an independent in 2014 but was unsuccessful Getty 18/24 DROPPED OUT: Eric Swalwell One of the younger candidates, Swalwell has served on multiple committees in the House of Representatives. He intended to make gun control central to his campaign but dropped out after his team said it was clear there was no path to victory Getty 19/24 DROPPED OUT: Seth Moulton A Massachusetts congressman, Moulton is a former US soldier who is best known for trying to stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming speaker of the house. He dropped out of the race after not polling well in key states Getty 20/24 Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is a Minnesota senator who earned praise for her contribution to the Brett Kavanaugh hearings Getty 21/24 DROPPED OUT: Jay Inslee Inslee has been governor of Washington since 2013. His bid was centred around climate change AFP/Getty 22/24 DROPPED OUT: John Hickenlooper The former governor of Colorado aimed to sell himself as an effective leader who was open to compromise, but failed to make a splash on the national stage Getty 23/24 DROPPED OUT: Tim Ryan Ohio representative Tim Ryan ran on a campaign that hinged on his working class roots, though his messaging did not appear to resonate with voters Getty 24/24 The former Massachusetts governor launched a late 2020 candidacy and received very little reception. With just a few short months until the first voters flock to the polls, the former governor is running as a centrist and believes he can unite the party's various voting blocs STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images

Centrist Democrats shouldn’t breathe easy. The illusion of unity behind Joe Biden may not survive a strong performance by Pete Buttigieg among Iowa and New Hampshire voters. Faced with a frontrunner unable to win early primary states, the centrist coalition currently backing Biden could easily transition into Buttigieg boosters. Then the moderate wing of the Democratic Party would find itself with the same dilemma as their progressive colleagues.

The Iowa caucus offers Democrats their first major opportunity to reshape a party traumatized by the nihilism and instability of President Donald Trump. For the resurgent left, 2020 offers the best opportunity in decades to shift Democratic Party values in a more progressive direction.

But first they have to win.