FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Disney is reporting that Captain Marvel flew to $20.7M last night from shows that started at 6PM. Among Thursday Marvel previews that’s the fifth best after Avengers: Infinity War ($39M), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($27.6M), Black Panther ($25.2M), and Captain America: Civil War ($25M).
ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak scores out of the gate for the 21st Marvel title in the MCU are off to a great start with 4 1/2 stars and a 73% definite recommend. Men overall led over females last night 60% to 40%. It will be interesting to see if that changes over the weekend. Captain Marvel pulled in a 77% general audience, 9% parents and 4% kids. Kids under 12 gave the female superhero five stars with girls giving the pic 100% and boys 91%. In order of demo draw last night men 25+ led at 37% followed by men under 25 (23%), women over 25 (21%) and women under 25 (18%). Women love the pic better than guys, 91% to 82% with females over 25 bestowing the best grades from adults on Carol Danvers at 96% positive.
Disney has appropriately timed Marvel’s first female superhero movie to open on Women’s Day today in 4,310 theaters, and what a wonderful weekend this will be with Captain Marvel set to earn north of $130M should it follow a similar trajectory to that of Suicide Squad which made $20.5M in previews, a $64.8M first day and $133.6M weekend. Spring breaks are starting up: ComScore shows 6% K-12 and 13% colleges off today, numbers which will grow to respectively 18% and 33% by Monday.
Among regular movies in release, DreamWorks Animation/Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World led all pics with $1.35M yesterday, -9% from Wednesday for a two week haul of $104.9M including previews. The threequel is just $3.8M behind in its running domestic total when compared to its previous chapter; again that movie played in July when kids were off from school. Pic’s second week total was $37.2M.
Second yesterday was Lionsgate’s Tyler Perry movie Madea Family Funeral which made $1.2M, -6% for a first week of $33.8M.
Fox/Lightstorm’s Alita: Battle Angel made $445K yesterday, -28% from Wednesday, for an estimated third week of $9.9M and running total of $75.1M.
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Proof that moviegoing isn’t dead this year, and that it just boils down to the product on the marquee, can be vividly seen tonight: Disney’s Captain Marvel starring Oscar winner Brie Larson is on her way to an estimated $20 million-$24 million Thursday night per Deadline industry sources. It is one of the best box office-grossing days that 2019 has seen to date after How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World‘s first Saturday of $22.2M. Since these are rough box office estimates, not from Disney, we always have to footnote that they can increase or decrease by Friday AM.
Should Captain Marvel continue on the pace with what we’re seeing tonight, she’ll rank as the second best preview night for March behind Warner Bros’ Batman v. Superman‘s Holy Thursday 2016 take of $27.7M.
Previews began at 6 PM Thursday for Captain Marvel, the same time that Thursday previews started for Ant-Man and the Wasp, instead of the usual 7 PM which was when Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War fired up.
The range for Captain Marvel is higher than another female-led vehicle, Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games, which made $19.7M on its first Thursday back on March 22, 2012. It’s also higher than the first night of Marvel’s Avengers ($18.7M), could beat the preview night of Warner Bros’ Suicide Squad ($20.5M), and comes just under the first Thursdays of last year’s Black Panther ($25.2M) and May 2016’s Captain America: Civil War ($25M). Next to the first night of Warner Bros’ Wonder Woman in June 2017, Captain Marvel is besting her $11M preview by 118%. Fantastic.
Suicide Squad‘s Thursday night repped 32% of its $64.8M opening Friday, turning into a $133.6M opening, the best August has ever seen. Captain America saw around the same share, with Thursday repping 33% of its $75.5M Friday for a $179.1M opening weekend. This gives you an idea of Captain Marvel‘s potential for the weekend.
Tracking was between $120M-$140M and recently rose at the top end to $155M today for the superhero movie directed by Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck.
In Fandango pre-sales, Captain Marvel is its top advance ticket seller since Avengers: Infinity War last year. In the digital ticket-seller’s survey, 98% of those polled are looking forward to seeing how Captain Marvel connects with the ongoing Avengers storyline. In seven weeks, Disney will open Avengers: Endgame on April 26, jumpstarting the summer early just like it did last year with Infinity War.
Captain Marvel has all the premium super-powers at her command, i.e. 3,000 of her 4,200 theaters are 3D-equipped, all 400-plus Imax hubs, 750 premium large-format screens and 250 D-box locations. The film carries a production budget around $152M (Black Panther cost an estimated $200M before P&A).
Rotten Tomatoes for Captain Marvel stands at 82% certified fresh from 248 reviews, which is healthy enough for a four-quad picture to start a fire over the weekend. Splicing hairs: critics were more marveled by Warner Bros/DC’s Wonder Woman, which earned a 93% RT off 417 reviews.
SpaceEdvard on March 8th, 2019 at 15:57 UTC »
I really enjoyed this movie. It wasn't the best Marvel movie, but it was still really good. The humor was better than a lot of the recent movies (Taika not withstanding) and the action was great. I didn't even mind the whole Fury eye thing. I mean honestly, what would have been satisfying? We already know he's a bad ass. Having it be something ridiculous just makes it better, in my opinion.
HowardBunnyColvin on March 8th, 2019 at 14:22 UTC »
Hell yeah
I love watching these movies on Thursday night. They used to be midnight showings too, but some of us have to work on Friday too. 7 PM Thursday for these movies is fine with me.
Theater didn't seem really packed though. The first 3 or 4 rows were all empty. Everyone wanted to sit back with their food (Alamo Drafthouse)
RuruTutu on March 8th, 2019 at 14:05 UTC »
It was pretty good. Nothing crazy, but a good feel, I'd say one of the better solo/intro films (IM1, Ant-Man, GOTG1 and Ragnarok beat it for sure). Feels like it should have been made and watched with the phase 1/2 films, somewhere between first avenger and winter soldier, as its callbacks go a certain way.
EDIT: I forgot Homecoming from the list of solos, and Winter Soldier is arguably top 1 or 2 to most people, so didn't think it needed mentioning.