Midterms 2018: Early voting by young people up 500% in Texas and Georgia

Early voting among young people in key US midterm battleground states has surged dramatically, the latest data shows, suggesting a potential jump in enthusiasm for Democratic candidates.

With six days to go until election day, Texas and Georgia, two traditionally Republican-leaning states, have increased their early vote rate among 18-29 year-olds by nearly five times or more compared to 2014.

America’s early voting system allows voters to cast their ballot early, either via postal voting or at designated polling stations, in a bid to increase participation and relieve congestion on election day.

In Texas, young voter turnout is currently up 508 per cent, while African-American and Hispanic – both traditionally Democratic constituencies – vote rates have more than doubled.

It comes amid a fierce senate contest between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, a prominent Trump-supporter, and Beto O’Rourke, a Democratic candidate tipped by some as a future presidential candidate.

Elliott Morris, an elections specialist at The Economist, noted turnout thus far in Texas’ 15 biggest counties had surpassed total early voting turnouts in 2014.

“Can't overstate how crazy this level of engagement is for a midterm,” he said on Twitter.

A national poll, released on Monday by the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, found 40 per cent of 18-29 year-olds plan to "definitely vote" – double the 2014 figure – while 66 per cent of young respondents said they would vote Democrat.

Georgia, a state facing voter suppression claims, has similarly seen 19-28 voter turnout up 476 per cent, African-American early voting up 165 per cent, and Hispanic turnout up a massive 571 per cent, according to data provided by TargetSmart.

The numbers also reveal early voting in Texas and Georgia among the over 65s and white people, two traditional Republican blocs, is significantly up, though not as dramatically as young people.

While the numbers suggest a surge in early voting enthusiasm – especially among young people and ethnic minorities – the data does not reveal how these groups are voting, or even what the final vote count will be.

Shape Created with Sketch. President Trump vs the press Show all 15 left Created with Sketch. right Created with Sketch. Shape Created with Sketch. President Trump vs the press 1/15 "You are fake news!" Then President-elect Trump directed this insult to CNN's Jim Acosta while refusing him a question at a press conference on January 11 2017. The President-elect's anger was due to the publishing of unverified memos that implicated Michael Cohen in Russian collusion by Buzzfeed. CNN had reported on a briefing of Obama and Trump on the memos by US intelligence chiefs, but knowing the content to be unverified had not revealed it AFP/Getty 2/15 "They are among the most dishonest human beings on earth" President Trump said this of journalists during a visit to the CIA on the the day following his inauguration. His claim of having the largest crowd of any inauguration ceremony in history had been debunked and he clearly wasn't happy Reuters 3/15 "Failing New York Times" President Trump commonly addresses the New York Times in this way, contrary to its increasing profit margins and expanding global readership. He is pictured here in the midtown Manhattan offices of the paper Getty 4/15 "Enemy of the American People" President Trump has since repeated the claim that such news outlets are the enemy of the people, often after they break negative stories about him 5/15 "They have no sources" Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference on February 24 2017, President Trump suggested that a Washington Post article with 9 sources was "made up". The article in question exposed how then National Security Advisor Michael Flynn had misled Vice President Mike Pence over a phone call to a Russian ambassador. That the article was "made up", while highly doubtful at the time, seems even less likely since Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about the same phone call Reuters 6/15 Access denied for major publications Protesters gathered outside of the New York Times office after Trump's White House barred a number of publications from attending a press briefing on February 24 2017. Just hours after the President had again denounced the media, then Press Secretary Sean Spicer denied access to news outlets such as CNN and the New York Times, while permitting Breitbart News, CBS, Fox and others AFP/Getty Images 7/15 "#FNN" On July 2 2017, President Trump tweeted an edited clip from his Wrestlemania XXIII appearance in which the CNN logo had been imposed onto the face of his wrestling opponent Vince McMahon. CNN is a common target for President Trump and here he suggests that he is getting the better of the network through his repeated attacks 8/15 "The most powerful TV show in America" On July 27 2017, President Trump quoted a New York Times article about Fox & Friends. The President is known to watch Fox & Friends every morning, often tweeting about matters discussed on the show, leading to speculation over its influence on his outlook and policies Getty Images 9/15 "It's frankly disgusting the way the press is able to write whatever they want to write" In a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on October 11 2017, President Trump suggested that the press ought not to be allowed their constitutionally secured freedom. He added "people should look into it", suggesting that he also doesn't respect the protection of sources. At the time, he was angry at an NBC report claiming that the President had expressed a desire to return the size of the US' nuclear arsenal to its 1960s height, a claim that he and others in his administration dismissed as fake news AFP/Getty 10/15 "negative (Fake)" In a tweet on 9 May 2018, President Trump conflated negative reporting about him with fake news 11/15 "I didn't criticise the Prime Minister" In a press conference with the Prime Minister on his visit to Britain, President Trump disputed claims published in the Sun that he had criticised Mrs May's Brexit strategy Reuters 12/15 "Horrible, horrendous people" At a Republican rally in Pennsylvania on August 3 2018, President Trump deemed all journalists in attendance "horrible, horrendous people". He later denounced the "fake, fake, disgusting news" for falsely reporting that he was late to his meeting with the Queen when visiting Britain AFP/Getty 13/15 Trump's rhetoric "very close to inciting violence" In an interview with the Guardian on 13 August 2018, the outgoing UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein suggested that President Trump's attacks on the press are "very close to inciting violence". Zeid singles out the President's repeated claim that the fake news (negative coverage) media is the "enemy of the people" as dangerous Reuters 14/15 "anonymous source" = fiction President Trump claimed that any report citing anonymous sources is fiction. The protection of sources is a vital matter of press freedom, as without it a potential source's fear of repercussions could lead them to withhold important information 15/15 "I would never kill Journalists" For any journalists frightened by President Trump's attacks on the press, perhaps you can take solace in his words from a campaign rally in Grand Rapids on December 21 2015. Responding to remarks over Vladimir Putin's handling of journalists, Trump stated: "I hate some of these people, but I'd never kill them... I'll be honest - I would never kill them. Uhhh lets see.. no, I never would" Getty 1/15 "You are fake news!" Then President-elect Trump directed this insult to CNN's Jim Acosta while refusing him a question at a press conference on January 11 2017. The President-elect's anger was due to the publishing of unverified memos that implicated Michael Cohen in Russian collusion by Buzzfeed. CNN had reported on a briefing of Obama and Trump on the memos by US intelligence chiefs, but knowing the content to be unverified had not revealed it AFP/Getty 2/15 "They are among the most dishonest human beings on earth" President Trump said this of journalists during a visit to the CIA on the the day following his inauguration. His claim of having the largest crowd of any inauguration ceremony in history had been debunked and he clearly wasn't happy Reuters 3/15 "Failing New York Times" President Trump commonly addresses the New York Times in this way, contrary to its increasing profit margins and expanding global readership. He is pictured here in the midtown Manhattan offices of the paper Getty 4/15 "Enemy of the American People" President Trump has since repeated the claim that such news outlets are the enemy of the people, often after they break negative stories about him 5/15 "They have no sources" Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference on February 24 2017, President Trump suggested that a Washington Post article with 9 sources was "made up". The article in question exposed how then National Security Advisor Michael Flynn had misled Vice President Mike Pence over a phone call to a Russian ambassador. That the article was "made up", while highly doubtful at the time, seems even less likely since Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about the same phone call Reuters 6/15 Access denied for major publications Protesters gathered outside of the New York Times office after Trump's White House barred a number of publications from attending a press briefing on February 24 2017. Just hours after the President had again denounced the media, then Press Secretary Sean Spicer denied access to news outlets such as CNN and the New York Times, while permitting Breitbart News, CBS, Fox and others AFP/Getty Images 7/15 "#FNN" On July 2 2017, President Trump tweeted an edited clip from his Wrestlemania XXIII appearance in which the CNN logo had been imposed onto the face of his wrestling opponent Vince McMahon. CNN is a common target for President Trump and here he suggests that he is getting the better of the network through his repeated attacks 8/15 "The most powerful TV show in America" On July 27 2017, President Trump quoted a New York Times article about Fox & Friends. The President is known to watch Fox & Friends every morning, often tweeting about matters discussed on the show, leading to speculation over its influence on his outlook and policies Getty Images 9/15 "It's frankly disgusting the way the press is able to write whatever they want to write" In a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on October 11 2017, President Trump suggested that the press ought not to be allowed their constitutionally secured freedom. He added "people should look into it", suggesting that he also doesn't respect the protection of sources. At the time, he was angry at an NBC report claiming that the President had expressed a desire to return the size of the US' nuclear arsenal to its 1960s height, a claim that he and others in his administration dismissed as fake news AFP/Getty 10/15 "negative (Fake)" In a tweet on 9 May 2018, President Trump conflated negative reporting about him with fake news 11/15 "I didn't criticise the Prime Minister" In a press conference with the Prime Minister on his visit to Britain, President Trump disputed claims published in the Sun that he had criticised Mrs May's Brexit strategy Reuters 12/15 "Horrible, horrendous people" At a Republican rally in Pennsylvania on August 3 2018, President Trump deemed all journalists in attendance "horrible, horrendous people". He later denounced the "fake, fake, disgusting news" for falsely reporting that he was late to his meeting with the Queen when visiting Britain AFP/Getty 13/15 Trump's rhetoric "very close to inciting violence" In an interview with the Guardian on 13 August 2018, the outgoing UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein suggested that President Trump's attacks on the press are "very close to inciting violence". Zeid singles out the President's repeated claim that the fake news (negative coverage) media is the "enemy of the people" as dangerous Reuters 14/15 "anonymous source" = fiction President Trump claimed that any report citing anonymous sources is fiction. The protection of sources is a vital matter of press freedom, as without it a potential source's fear of repercussions could lead them to withhold important information 15/15 "I would never kill Journalists" For any journalists frightened by President Trump's attacks on the press, perhaps you can take solace in his words from a campaign rally in Grand Rapids on December 21 2015. Responding to remarks over Vladimir Putin's handling of journalists, Trump stated: "I hate some of these people, but I'd never kill them... I'll be honest - I would never kill them. Uhhh lets see.. no, I never would" Getty

It is possible a significant number of people who would always have voted are casting their ballot earlier than in previous years, rather than the rise being down to citizens who failed to vote in 2014.

Nonetheless, the surge in young early voters will be seen as a boon to Democratic candidates battling their Republican counterparts and a president in Donald Trump who has attempted to cast the 6 November elections as a referendum on his performance.

In Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida and Arizona – all traditional battleground states – young voting so far has at least doubled, and in the case of Pennsylvania, is up four-fold.

The four states have also all seen rises in the African-America vote, as well as Caucasian votes and the over 65s.