A Sharp Decline for Jimmy Fallon’s ‘Tonight Show’

Ten months after Inauguration Day, the trend is holding: For late-night hosts, being sharply critical of President Trump is a winning strategy. And that is bad news for “The Tonight Show.”

Stephen Colbert, who has made Mr. Trump a nightly target, assumed the top position in the ratings race in February and has only increased his lead since then. His program, “The Late Show” on CBS, has taken viewers away from Jimmy Fallon, the cheerful host of NBC’s storied franchise, who has lost 21 percent of his audience year over year since the fall season began on Sept. 25. At the same time, Jimmy Kimmel has made ratings gains in the 11:35 p.m. slot on ABC.

Ever since Mr. Colbert leapfrogged Mr. Fallon in total viewers, NBC executives have emphasized that “The Tonight Show” is still the No. 1 choice of viewers in the 18-to-49-year-old group prized by advertisers.

Now even that lead is shrinking.

In the November sweeps period, which ended last Wednesday, Mr. Colbert cut into Mr. Fallon’s lead among younger viewers, finishing 57,000 behind him, according to Nielsen data. That’s the closest the CBS host has come to Mr. Fallon among 18- to 49-year-olds in the 27 months the two have competed head-to-head.

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A year ago, Mr. Colbert trailed Mr. Fallon in that demographic by roughly 364,000 viewers. In the November 2015 sweeps period — which coincided with Mr. Colbert’s shaky start as a network host — Mr. Fallon’s lead was nearly 500,000.

The size of Mr. Colbert’s entire audience has spiked along with his gains among younger viewers. During the sweeps period, he averaged 3.7 million total viewers a night — a 23 percent increase from a year ago.