Researchers find that economic, emissions and population trends point to very small chance Earth will avoid warming more than 2C by century’s end.
Global trends in the economy, emissions and population growth make it extremely unlikely that the planet will remain below the 2C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, the study states.
According to the University of Washington study, there is a 90% likelihood that temperatures will rise between 2C and 4.9C by 2100.
This would put the world in the mid-range warming scenarios mapped out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
It has long been acknowledged that emissions cuts promised under the the Paris agreement would not be sufficient to avoid 2C warming.
Fortunately, renewables, storage and other technologies are already cheaper than fossil energy in many places and costs are falling fast.
“More aggressive policies are urgently needed, but this study should not be taken as evidence that nothing can be done. »