Mario Kart 8 item probability distributions

The following distributions are used by version 4.1 of Mario Kart 8 to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened.[1] The tables have the same structure seen in Mario Kart 7, with the column number of each item being the same for the items featured in both games and the probability coded as a percentage multiplied by two.

These item probability distributions are used in the demonstrations of the gameplay that are shown in the title screen. Although 20 sets are defined for them, only the second, third and fourth actually contain at least a probability value different from zero.

Item probability distributions (Title screen, second set) Distribution 1 100 60 10 30 2 40 50 70 20 10 10 3 30 50 50 20 20 10 20 4 30 50 30 40 10 20 20 5 30 40 10 60 30 20 10 6 30 40 70 40 10 10 7 30 40 70 50 10 8 30 30 80 60 9 30 30 80 60 10 30 20 80 70 11 30 20 70 80 12 30 20 60 90

Item probability distributions (Title screen, third and fourth set) Distribution 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 200 10 200 11 200 12 200

During races, each probability distribution is chosen depending on the distance from the frontrunner in the moment the Item Box was opened. The distance reported is the one at which the switch to the next distribution happens.

Versus races feature five additional distributions sets whose distributions are all made to obtain a specific item and whose purpose is unclear. Most of them are reported without the distance as it is not determined whether they are used by drivers controlled by players or by the software.

Item probability distributions (Grand Prix races, drivers controlled by players) Distance

(units) 400 65 50 5 5 5 70 1000 20 25 50 20 10 10 10 5 5 15 15 10 5 2000 10 20 30 25 15 15 10 15 5 10 5 10 10 15 5 3300 15 20 50 5 5 60 5 5 10 10 10 5 5500 10 30 5 5 85 25 10 25 5 8000 10 5 65 40 30 5 40 5 13000 5 35 35 60 10 55 26000 10 30 85 15 60 999998 30 40 70 60 999999 30 40 70 60

Item probability distributions (Grand Prix races, drivers controlled by software) Distance

(units) 300 50 40 15 10 5 70 10 700 25 30 60 15 5 5 10 5 5 20 10 10 1300 30 35 30 25 10 10 10 5 10 15 10 10 2600 30 35 15 45 10 5 25 5 5 5 5 15 4500 30 35 5 50 5 3 47 10 10 5 7000 15 20 50 4 58 20 10 3 20 13000 10 10 30 57 30 30 3 30 26000 10 10 10 42 30 55 3 40 999998 30 60 30 50 30 999999 30 60 30 50 30

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, All items, drivers controlled by players) Distance

(units) 400 60 50 5 5 80 1000 15 25 45 20 10 5 10 10 10 5 20 10 10 5 2000 5 15 35 30 10 25 10 15 5 10 5 10 10 10 5 3300 15 18 50 5 2 65 10 5 5 10 10 5 5500 25 10 5 85 33 10 2 25 5 8000 10 5 65 40 30 5 40 5 13000 2 40 30 65 8 55 26000 20 25 90 10 55 999998 40 30 70 60 999999 40 30 70 60

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, All items, drivers controlled by software) Distance

(units) 300 60 45 15 5 75 700 30 35 55 10 5 5 10 10 5 20 10 5 1300 30 35 30 20 15 10 10 5 5 10 10 10 10 2600 30 40 15 40 10 10 20 5 5 5 5 15 4500 30 40 50 10 5 40 10 10 5 7000 15 30 55 5 40 20 10 5 20 13000 10 10 40 45 30 30 5 30 26000 10 10 20 30 30 55 5 40 999998 30 60 30 50 30 999999 30 60 30 50 30

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by players) Distance

(units) 400 100 100 1000 100 50 50 2000 100 85 15 3300 70 130 5500 30 130 40 8000 120 80 13000 80 120 26000 40 160 999998 100 100 999999 100 100

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by software) Distance

(units) 300 120 80 700 120 40 40 1300 110 80 10 2600 110 90 4500 90 80 30 7000 70 70 60 13000 50 60 90 26000 50 60 90 999998 50 110 40 999999 50 110 40

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Shells Only, drivers controlled by players) Distance

(units) 400 100 100 1000 90 30 40 30 10 2000 60 60 10 40 30 3300 40 65 5 50 40 5500 20 70 10 50 50 8000 60 10 50 80 13000 50 10 50 90 26000 50 10 50 90 999998 200 999999 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Shells Only, drivers controlled by software) Distance

(units) 300 120 80 700 90 50 40 20 1300 80 70 10 40 2600 70 65 5 60 4500 60 55 5 80 7000 45 50 5 100 13000 35 40 5 120 26000 25 30 5 140 999998 200 999999 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by players) Distance

(units) 400 100 100 1000 115 50 35 2000 120 15 65 3300 110 90 5500 80 120 8000 50 150 13000 20 180 26000 20 180 999998 200 999999 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by software) Distance

(units) 300 120 80 700 130 40 30 1300 140 10 50 2600 130 70 4500 110 90 7000 90 110 13000 70 130 26000 70 130 999998 200 999999 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bob-ombs Only, drivers controlled by players) Distance

(units) 400 100 100 1000 130 70 2000 160 40 3300 180 20 5500 190 10 8000 200 13000 200 26000 200 999998 200 999999 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bob-ombs Only, drivers controlled by software) Distance

(units) 300 120 80 700 150 50 1300 170 30 2600 190 10 4500 190 10 7000 200 13000 200 26000 200 999998 200 999999 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Mushrooms Only distributions, drivers controlled by players) Distance

(units) 400 200 1000 200 2000 200 3300 200 5500 200 8000 200 13000 200 26000 200 999998 200 999999 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Mushrooms Only distributions, drivers controlled by software) Distance

(units) 300 200 700 200 1300 200 2600 200 4500 200 7000 200 13000 200 26000 200 999998 200 999999 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Shells Only distributions) Distribution 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 200 10 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Bananas Only distributions) Distribution 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 200 10 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, additional Bob-ombs Only distributions) Distribution 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 200 10 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, second set of additional Mushrooms Only distributions) Distribution 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 200 10 200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by players) Distance

(units) 400 30 25 10 25 10 45 30 25 1000 5 5 30 20 15 10 15 15 15 15 5 20 20 10 2000 10 10 15 5 5 25 15 15 20 15 15 10 15 20 5 3300 5 10 10 45 40 15 20 5 5 5 5 10 15 10 5500 10 45 55 30 5 40 10 5 8000 5 35 55 45 5 50 5 13000 25 40 65 10 60 26000 10 30 85 10 65 999998 30 40 70 60 999999 30 40 70 60

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by software) Distance

(units) 300 35 35 20 15 5 60 15 15 700 15 20 45 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 20 1300 15 20 25 20 15 30 10 10 10 5 10 10 20 2600 15 20 10 25 10 10 5 40 20 10 5 5 5 5 15 4500 15 20 25 10 5 40 30 15 5 30 5 7000 10 10 20 10 35 40 30 5 40 13000 5 5 15 5 30 35 50 5 50 26000 5 5 10 25 30 60 5 60 999998 20 30 30 60 60 999999 20 30 30 60 60

The purpose of this set of five distributions is currently not known.

Item probability distributions (Unknown purpose) Distribution 1 70 70 60 2 200 3 70 70 60 4 200 5 200

In Battle Mode, the probability depends both on the time and on the number of balloons left. The conditions reported here are derived from the Prima Games' official guide.[2]

Just like with Versus Races, there are additional distributions sets whose purpose is unclear.

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, All items, drivers controlled by players) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 30 130 10 30 More than 2 2 15 110 5 15 5 50 More than 2 1 75 10 20 10 15 70 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 20 135 10 35 Between 2 and 1 2 10 100 5 5 15 10 55 Between 2 and 1 1 15 15 10 20 10 5 15 5 20 10 75 Less than 1 More than 2 20 130 10 40 Less than 1 2 95 10 5 15 5 10 60 Less than 1 1 20 10 20 10 10 15 10 15 10 80 0 100 100

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, All items, drivers controlled by software) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 20 165 5 10 More than 2 2 10 140 10 10 30 More than 2 1 100 20 30 50 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 20 150 10 20 Between 2 and 1 2 10 110 10 10 20 40 Between 2 and 1 1 35 20 20 15 10 10 10 5 10 10 55 Less than 1 More than 2 20 135 5 40 Less than 1 2 10 85 20 10 20 5 50 Less than 1 1 20 30 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 60 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by players) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 140 60 More than 2 1 100 100 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 180 20 Between 2 and 1 2 120 80 Between 2 and 1 1 70 100 30 Less than 1 More than 2 170 30 Less than 1 2 100 80 20 Less than 1 1 50 90 60 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by software) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 120 80 More than 2 1 80 120 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 160 40 Between 2 and 1 2 100 100 Between 2 and 1 1 40 120 40 Less than 1 More than 2 150 50 Less than 1 2 70 100 30 Less than 1 1 20 100 80 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Shells Only, drivers controlled by players) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 160 40 More than 2 2 140 60 More than 2 1 80 20 100 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 140 60 Between 2 and 1 2 100 20 80 Between 2 and 1 1 50 40 110 Less than 1 More than 2 130 70 Less than 1 2 70 30 100 Less than 1 1 30 50 120 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Shells Only, drivers controlled by software) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 170 30 More than 2 2 140 60 More than 2 1 80 30 90 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 160 40 Between 2 and 1 2 110 20 70 Between 2 and 1 1 50 40 110 Less than 1 More than 2 150 50 Less than 1 2 90 30 80 Less than 1 1 30 60 110 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by players) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 170 30 More than 2 1 130 70 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 170 30 Between 2 and 1 2 130 70 Between 2 and 1 1 80 120 Less than 1 More than 2 150 50 Less than 1 2 100 100 Less than 1 1 50 150 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by software) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 160 40 More than 2 1 120 80 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 160 40 Between 2 and 1 2 120 80 Between 2 and 1 1 70 130 Less than 1 More than 2 140 60 Less than 1 2 90 110 Less than 1 1 40 160 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Bob-ombs Only, drivers controlled by players and drivers controlled by software) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 200 More than 2 1 200 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 200 Between 2 and 1 2 200 Between 2 and 1 1 200 Less than 1 More than 2 200 Less than 1 2 200 Less than 1 1 200 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Green Shells and Bananas Only distributions) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 200 More than 2 1 200 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 200 Between 2 and 1 2 200 Between 2 and 1 1 200 Less than 1 More than 2 200 Less than 1 2 200 Less than 1 1 200 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Mushrooms Only distributions) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 200 More than 2 1 200 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 200 Between 2 and 1 2 200 Between 2 and 1 1 200 Less than 1 More than 2 200 Less than 1 2 200 Less than 1 1 200 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Green Shells Only distributions) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 200 More than 2 1 200 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 200 Between 2 and 1 2 200 Between 2 and 1 1 200 Less than 1 More than 2 200 Less than 1 2 200 Less than 1 1 200 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Bananas Only distributions) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 200 More than 2 1 200 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 200 Between 2 and 1 2 200 Between 2 and 1 1 200 Less than 1 More than 2 200 Less than 1 2 200 Less than 1 1 200 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, additional Bob-ombs Only distributions) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 200 More than 2 2 200 More than 2 1 200 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 200 Between 2 and 1 2 200 Between 2 and 1 1 200 Less than 1 More than 2 200 Less than 1 2 200 Less than 1 1 200 0 200

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by players) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 20 50 10 30 20 20 50 More than 2 2 10 30 10 30 20 10 20 10 60 More than 2 1 5 10 10 25 10 5 20 15 15 15 70 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 10 40 10 30 20 10 20 10 50 Between 2 and 1 2 20 10 10 25 5 20 20 20 10 60 Between 2 and 1 1 20 5 20 10 10 20 20 15 10 70 Less than 1 More than 2 40 10 30 20 15 20 15 50 Less than 1 2 20 15 5 20 10 20 20 20 10 60 Less than 1 1 30 5 10 10 20 20 20 15 5 65 0 90 80 30

Item probability distributions (Battle Mode, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by software) Minutes left Balloons left More than 2 More than 2 35 55 10 25 15 20 40 More than 2 2 15 45 5 10 25 15 5 20 10 50 More than 2 1 20 10 10 25 10 10 15 10 20 10 60 Between 2 and 1 More than 2 25 50 10 25 15 5 20 10 40 Between 2 and 1 2 10 25 15 10 20 10 15 10 20 10 55 Between 2 and 1 1 10 25 10 15 10 15 15 15 15 10 60 Less than 1 More than 2 15 50 10 25 15 10 20 15 40 Less than 1 2 15 20 10 20 15 20 15 20 10 55 Less than 1 1 30 10 15 5 20 20 20 15 5 60 0 100 70 30