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Three years ago, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, known as MBS, was asked what he would do if Iran got a nuclear weapon. He was clear: “If they get one, we have to get one.”
Now, with caveats, Donald Trump has moved him a step closer to getting the means to make a Saudi nuclear bomb. The Middle East will be an even more dangerous place as a result.
The world’s most combustible region was already on the edge of a nuclear arms race. Israel has had a variety of weapons for years, hundreds of them. Then Iran began enriching uranium to a far-higher purity than would be needed for its civil nuclear programme.
The announcement on Wednesday will likely bring in others. Where Saudi Arabia goes, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Turkey will follow.
Trump posted on Truth Social that the deal his White House has cooked up “pertains only to non-military use”. The US Energy Department spoke of a “peaceful nuclear co-operation agreement” to allow “great access for American companies” to sell nuclear technology to the Saudis.
Trump has insisted that there would be no uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia, the first step in making a bomb. Meanwhile, the US media – clearly briefed in detail by officials – reported that, on the contrary, the deal would open the way for enrichment to take place, with some conditions.
First, there must be a joint US-Saudi study on whether nuclear power requires enrichment on Saudi soil or if it should simply import fuel. The difficult decision on enrichment will, therefore, be in the hands of Trump’s successor. It would rest there anyway, because of the many years it takes to build nuclear facilities.
Any enrichment plant would also need to be run by Americans. Saudi personnel would, supposedly, be excluded from what MBS will have paid billions of dollars to acquire.
Riyadh would own a shiny new nuclear plant and never see inside the most sensitive parts of it. The machinery and the know-how of enrichment would remain sealed off – in theory.
Trump and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman at the White House. The US President has insisted that there would be no uranium enrichment in the Middle Eastern country (Photo: Nathan Howard/Getty)
On Thursday, Trump also said that the agreement hinged on Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. The deal is “totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords”, he wrote on Truth Social. This may yet throw a wrench in it.
But it is important to note what Saudi Arabia did not have to promise. When the UAE signed its own agreement with Washington for a civil nuclear programme, it not only gave up enrichment for good, it also accepted inspectors who could turn up unannounced. US officials called it the “gold standard” of nuclear agreements.
As well as failing to swear off enrichment, the country can deny access to the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, also made a nuclear agreement conditional on Riyadh recognising Israel. That was meant to be the prize that justified the risk of nuclear proliferation. But Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been noticeably silent about Trump’s latest deal. Israel is unlikely to look favourably on one of its neighbours moving a step closer to having nuclear weapons.
A poster with the slogan ‘Kill Trump’ is displayed as mourners gather to pay final respects to Iran’s former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. ‘Iran will dig in during its current negotiations with the US,’ writes Paul Wood (Photo: Majid Saeedi/Getty)
A Saudi nuclear programme – whether peaceful or not – is still years away. But there will be some immediate effects of the deal.
Iran will dig in during its current negotiations with the US. It will not want to agree to any moratorium on enrichment after seeing what the Saudis are planning. Saudi Arabia, in turn, will respond to any hardening of the Iranian position. A Saudi-Iranian nuclear arms race then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan has already said that such a race would produce a Turkish bomb, too.
Trump, the dealmaker, has made a very bad deal. Why? For one thing, he faced the same problem that made Biden anxious to negotiate a nuclear deal with Riyadh: Saudi Arabia was going to buy a nuclear industry from somebody.
American firms had been frozen out for years because their governments kept insisting on the “gold standard”. Meanwhile, China’s state nuclear company was happy to build with no awkward questions attached. The Trump administration prefers an American reactor Washington can, in theory, switch off to one that Beijing controls. This deal is damage limitation.
But even more important, perhaps, is the US’s weak position right now in the Middle East, due to Trump’s rash decision to go to war with Iran.
Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port in the United Arab Emirates after an Iranian attack. Gulf states have suffered damage to critical infrastructure caused by missiles and drones fired by Tehran (Photo: Raghed Waked/Reuters)
The Gulf Arab monarchies are feeling like reluctant allies, having suffered damage to oil pipelines and refineries caused by Iranian missiles and drones that will take years to repair. Now, the war is escalating again.
Trump has ordered strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure – and Iran says it will hit back hard against the Gulf states. Trump desperately needs to keep them onside, starting with the Saudis.
The US President is also paying the price for his erratic behaviour, which makes the US seem a less reliable ally. In Europe, this has seen French President Emmanuel Macron promise to extend his country’s nuclear umbrella to other European nations traditionally under US protection.
Europeans had to “regain control” of their own destiny, Macron said. “The next half century… will be an age of nuclear weapons.”
MBS thinks the same, and may one day have his own bomb to prove it.
Big_Victory8031 on July 23rd, 2026 at 20:29 UTC »
Perpetual war to consume resources and keep the population desperate, ensuring the system never changes
theipaper on July 23rd, 2026 at 17:15 UTC »
Three years ago, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, known as MBS, was asked what he would do if Iran got a nuclear weapon. He was clear: “If they get one, we have to get one.”
Now, with caveats, Donald Trump has moved him a step closer to getting the means to make a Saudi nuclear bomb. The Middle East will be an even more dangerous place as a result.
The world’s most combustible region was already on the edge of a nuclear arms race. Israel has had a variety of weapons for years, hundreds of them. Then Iran began enriching uranium to a far-higher purity than would be needed for its civil nuclear programme.
The announcement on Wednesday will likely bring in others. Where Saudi Arabia goes, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Turkey will follow.
Trump posted on Truth Social that the deal his White House has cooked up “pertains only to non-military use”. The US Energy Department spoke of a “peaceful nuclear co-operation agreement” to allow “great access for American companies” to sell nuclear technology to the Saudis.
Trump has insisted that there would be no uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia, the first step in making a bomb. Meanwhile, the US media – clearly briefed in detail by officials – reported that, on the contrary, the deal would open the way for enrichment to take place, with some conditions.
First, there must be a joint US-Saudi study on whether nuclear power requires enrichment on Saudi soil or if it should simply import fuel. The difficult decision on enrichment will, therefore, be in the hands of Trump’s successor. It would rest there anyway, because of the many years it takes to build nuclear facilities.
Any enrichment plant would also need to be run by Americans. Saudi personnel would, supposedly, be excluded from what MBS will have paid billions of dollars to acquire.
Riyadh would own a shiny new nuclear plant and never see inside the most sensitive parts of it. The machinery and the know-how of enrichment would remain sealed off – in theory.
On Thursday, Trump also said that the agreement hinged on Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. The deal is “totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords”, he wrote on Truth Social. This may yet throw a wrench in it.
But it is important to note what Saudi Arabia did not have to promise. When the UAE signed its own agreement with Washington for a civil nuclear programme, it not only gave up enrichment for good, it also accepted inspectors who could turn up unannounced. US officials called it the “gold standard” of nuclear agreements.
The Saudis refused this.
As well as failing to swear off enrichment, the country can deny access to the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, also made a nuclear agreement conditional on Riyadh recognising Israel. That was meant to be the prize that justified the risk of nuclear proliferation. But Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been noticeably silent about Trump’s latest deal. Israel is unlikely to look favourably on one of its neighbours moving a step closer to having nuclear weapons.
A Saudi nuclear programme – whether peaceful or not – is still years away. But there will be some immediate effects of the deal.
Iran will dig in during its current negotiations with the US. It will not want to agree to any moratorium on enrichment after seeing what the Saudis are planning. Saudi Arabia, in turn, will respond to any hardening of the Iranian position. A Saudi-Iranian nuclear arms race then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan has already said that such a race would produce a Turkish bomb, too.
Trump, the dealmaker, has made a very bad deal. Why? For one thing, he faced the same problem that made Biden anxious to negotiate a nuclear deal with Riyadh: Saudi Arabia was going to buy a nuclear industry from somebody.
American firms had been frozen out for years because their governments kept insisting on the “gold standard”. Meanwhile, China’s state nuclear company was happy to build with no awkward questions attached. The Trump administration prefers an American reactor Washington can, in theory, switch off to one that Beijing controls. This deal is damage limitation.
But even more important, perhaps, is the US’s weak position right now in the Middle East, due to Trump’s rash decision to go to war with Iran.
The Gulf Arab monarchies are feeling like reluctant allies, having suffered damage to oil pipelines and refineries caused by Iranian missiles and drones that will take years to repair. Now, the war is escalating again.
Trump has ordered strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure – and Iran says it will hit back hard against the Gulf states. Trump desperately needs to keep them onside, starting with the Saudis.
The US President is also paying the price for his erratic behaviour, which makes the US seem a less reliable ally. In Europe, this has seen French President Emmanuel Macron promise to extend his country’s nuclear umbrella to other European nations traditionally under US protection.
Europeans had to “regain control” of their own destiny, Macron said. “The next half century… will be an age of nuclear weapons.”
MBS thinks the same, and may one day have his own bomb to prove it.