The Daily Populous Monday July 20th, 2026 evening edition
Authored by inews.co.uk and submitted by theipaper

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As Donald Trump hunts for a way out of his unpopular war, he faces a conundrum: take a massive risk and escalate – or stand down once more in what he would see as an embarrassing surrender.

The US President is frantically looking for a route out of renewed conflict with Iran after his fragile memorandum of understanding (MOU), signed only weeks ago, officially collapsed following Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Since then the US has renewed strikes on targets across Iran and reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile Tehran has escalated its campaign against tankers in the vital maritime corridor, sending oil prices skyward again, and launched deadly attacks on US allies across the region.

At least three US troops have been killed in Jordan and Iraq over the past few days, putting more pressure on Trump – who was elected on a promise of no more “forever wars” – to bring the conflict to a resolute end.

As the November midterm elections tick closer, Trump is frantically looking for a way out that saves face. But as more US service personnel die, his options are getting slimmer.

On Monday, US Central Command said it had launched a “new wave” of strikes across Iran for the ninth consecutive night, targeting military sites and communications networks to “further diminish” Tehran’s attacks on ships. Trump said the strikes were “in honour” of three US soldiers killed.

The US has hit Iranian targets including bridges, ports and power stations, while Iran has also struck civilian infrastructure including a power and desalination plant in Kuwait, while Iranian missiles were intercepted by Bahrain on Saturday.

Meanwhile, fuel prices for US consumers are already ticking up. Oil and gas prices have already started surging back to pre-ceasefire levels as ships are no longer able to transit the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas passed before the war. Global markets are wary that increasing hostilities could send the economy into a devastating tailspin.

Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow in Middle East security at RUSI, said: “The on-again, off-again state of perma-conflict threatens to undermine any possibility of market confidence that had followed the signing of the MOU.

“The knock-on effects on the price of fuel and other commodities such as fertiliser and pharmaceuticals will be felt sharply, especially in parts of the Global South.”

Yet Trump is unable to change the equation. Iran is determined to assert control over the strait, a situation the US and the rest of the world cannot countenance. So far, neither diplomatic nor military pressure has been able to force Tehran back to the negotiating table.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz “will ⁠not be safe for the ​transit ​of petrochemical products, ​nor even a single ​drop ‌of oil ​and ​gas”, in light of what it called US “aggression” in the strategic waterway.

For Trump, without serious escalation such as a ground invasion of Kharg Island – a high-risk move that would inevitably result in more US deaths and prompt enormous backlash domestically – there appears little he can do to move the dial.

A report this weekend suggested the Trump administration was sending more warplanes to the region amid signs it could escalate its attacks on Iran. US officials told The New York Times that F-16 fighter jets from Germany and F-35s from the UK were being sent to the Middle East alongside aerial refuelling aircraft.

“The risk to him is that he gets dragged in further,” said international relations expert Dr Chris Featherstone of the University of York. “I would suspect he is trying to get everything finished before the midterms start and that looks highly unlikely so far. There’s no prospect of that happening in any real sense over the next two months, so I think he’s going to be very worried.”

His Maga voters supported his promise not to start any new wars, and now it is “the lack of a clear endpoint that is causing so much of the damage to his trust from his voter base”, Featherstone said.

For Trump, launching this war in February alongside Israel was a massive miscalculation, he added. Ultimately, he wanted a quick and clear show of power, like he had in Venezuela, but this has not materialised, said Featherstone. This showed “his inexperience coming to the fore” – which could come back to bite him in November.

The MOU too meant Trump “essentially set himself up to be backed into a corner” because he had little to no control over Israel, and the actions it took in Lebanon had contributed to destabilise the peace agreement, Featherstone added.

‘The US has exhausted its power over Iran’

The President’s current tack was to “try again what failed over the past two or so months, which is more bombing“, said Professor Marc Weller, director of the international law programme at the Chatham House think-tank. “It’s clear, I think, that that doesn’t work.”

With attacks escalating, experts argue there must be a fresh return to peace negotiations, with assurances that any terms will be upheld – unlike the memorandum.

“This ceasefire has been totally abandoned by the US, so they have little confidence in any process of this kind. And the US has kind of exhausted its means of power as it has against Iran,” said Weller. “So there has to be a fresh beginning. There have to be renegotiations and sufficient international involvement to reassure Iran that any outcome will be respected.”

Experts argue Trump should look to other nations to arbitrate negotiations with Iran, which might be less volatile and help come to a much-needed long-term settlement which could help stabilise the global economy.

Featherstone agreed that a resumption in negotiations was necessary, especially for Trump whose domestic preoccupations meant he needed a US withdrawal and a peace agreement.

Weller said: “I think realistically what he should do is he should withdraw forces and he should properly engage in peace talks. I think really he should look for orchestrated peace talks through other actors.

“We have to return to a situation that’s not just the US, but it is a broader international involvement that guarantees the outcome of any discussions. So that could be an arrangement where you have the Strait of Hormuz opened, you have some sort of international body, maybe one or two Gulf states and some of the mediators who are independent, and that they would supervise the development of the system of collective administration of the strait.”

erect_opposition on July 20th, 2026 at 15:50 UTC »

The Strait of Hormuz leverage is what makes this so hard to unwind. Iran knows choking 20% of global oil hurts everyone, not just Trump.

Christopher_Ramirez_ on July 20th, 2026 at 14:36 UTC »

He'll buy his way out with OPM, like all of his other failed ventures. This "bankruptcy proceeding" will be very messy and last through the end of his term if not reigned in by the new Congress.

theipaper on July 20th, 2026 at 14:32 UTC »

As Donald Trump hunts for a way out of his unpopular war, he faces a conundrum: take a massive risk and escalate – or stand down once more in what he would see as an embarrassing surrender.

The US President is frantically looking for a route out of renewed conflict with Iran after his fragile memorandum of understanding (MOU), signed only weeks ago, officially collapsed following Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Since then the US has renewed strikes on targets across Iran and reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile Tehran has escalated its campaign against tankers in the vital maritime corridor, sending oil prices skyward again, and launched deadly attacks on US allies across the region.

At least three US troops have been killed in Jordan and Iraq over the past few days, putting more pressure on Trump – who was elected on a promise of no more “forever wars” – to bring the conflict to a resolute end.

As the November midterm elections tick closer, Trump is frantically looking for a way out that saves face. But as more US service personnel die, his options are getting slimmer.

Iran war was a ‘massive miscalculation’

On Monday, US Central Command said it had launched a “new wave” of strikes across Iran for the ninth consecutive night, targeting military sites and communications networks to “further diminish” Tehran’s attacks on ships. Trump said the strikes were “in honour” of three US soldiers killed.

The US has hit Iranian targets including bridges, ports and power stations, while Iran has also struck civilian infrastructure including a power and desalination plant in Kuwait, while Iranian missiles were intercepted by Bahrain on Saturday.

Meanwhile, fuel prices for US consumers are already ticking up. Oil and gas prices have already started surging back to pre-ceasefire levels as ships are no longer able to transit the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas passed before the war. Global markets are wary that increasing hostilities could send the economy into a devastating tailspin.

Yet Trump is unable to change the equation. Iran is determined to assert control over the strait, a situation the US and the rest of the world cannot countenance. So far, neither diplomatic nor military pressure has been able to force Tehran back to the negotiating table.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz “will ⁠not be safe for the ​transit ​of petrochemical products, ​nor even a single ​drop ‌of oil ​and ​gas”, in light of what it called US “aggression” in the strategic waterway.

For Trump, without serious escalation such as a ground invasion of Kharg Island – a high-risk move that would inevitably result in more US deaths and prompt enormous backlash domestically – there appears little he can do to move the dial.

A report this weekend suggested the Trump administration was sending more warplanes to the region amid signs it could escalate its attacks on Iran. US officials told The New York Times that F-16 fighter jets from Germany and F-35s from the UK were being sent to the Middle East alongside aerial refuelling aircraft.

“The risk to him is that he gets dragged in further,” said international relations expert Dr Chris Featherstone of the University of York. “I would suspect he is trying to get everything finished before the midterms start and that looks highly unlikely so far. There’s no prospect of that happening in any real sense over the next two months, so I think he’s going to be very worried.”

His Maga voters supported his promise not to start any new wars, and now it is “the lack of a clear endpoint that is causing so much of the damage to his trust from his voter base”, Featherstone said.

For Trump, launching this war in February alongside Israel was a massive miscalculation, he added. Ultimately, he wanted a quick and clear show of power, like he had in Venezuela, but this has not materialised, said Featherstone. This showed “his inexperience coming to the fore” – which could come back to bite him in November.

The MOU too meant Trump “essentially set himself up to be backed into a corner” because he had little to no control over Israel, and the actions it took in Lebanon had contributed to destabilise the peace agreement, Featherstone added.

‘The US has exhausted its power over Iran’

The President’s current tack was to “try again what failed over the past two or so months, which is more bombing“, said Professor Marc Weller, director of the international law programme at the Chatham House think-tank. “It’s clear, I think, that that doesn’t work.”

With attacks escalating, experts argue there must be a fresh return to peace negotiations, with assurances that any terms will be upheld – unlike the memorandum.

“This ceasefire has been totally abandoned by the US, so they have little confidence in any process of this kind. And the US has kind of exhausted its means of power as it has against Iran,” said Weller. “So there has to be a fresh beginning. There have to be renegotiations and sufficient international involvement to reassure Iran that any outcome will be respected.”

Experts argue Trump should look to other nations to arbitrate negotiations with Iran, which might be less volatile and help come to a much-needed long-term settlement which could help stabilise the global economy.

Featherstone agreed that a resumption in negotiations was necessary, especially for Trump whose domestic preoccupations meant he needed a US withdrawal and a peace agreement.

Weller said: “I think realistically what he should do is he should withdraw forces and he should properly engage in peace talks. I think really he should look for orchestrated peace talks through other actors.

“We have to return to a situation that’s not just the US, but it is a broader international involvement that guarantees the outcome of any discussions. So that could be an arrangement where you have the Strait of Hormuz opened, you have some sort of international body, maybe one or two Gulf states and some of the mediators who are independent, and that they would supervise the development of the system of collective administration of the strait.”