Democrats, stop vying for Republican voters. It's a lost cause. | Opinion

July 19, 2026, 4:01 a.m. ET

A new poll on voter enthusiasm ahead of the November midterm elections shows that Make America Great Again is still going strong – and spelling trouble for Democrats who are hoping for a blue wave in November.

According to a HarrisX survey from July, 75% of polled supporters of President Donald Trump said they were "definitely going to vote" in the midterms. By comparison, 70% of non-MAGA Republicans and 63% of Democrats had the same response.

Overall, 85% of MAGA Republicans said they were “definitely” or “probably” going to vote. Democrats and independents were also more likely than all types of Republicans to say that they “definitely” weren’t going to participate in the November elections.

Democrats may be ramping up their campaigns and attempting to prove that they are the party focused on affordability and democracy, but the enthusiasm gap is a concerning message from voters that what they’ve done thus far is not enough to get the entire party to vote.

Democrats would be wise to remember that Republicans expressing any frustration with Trump would likely vote for him again if it were possible and will almost certainly vote Republican in the midterms. They don't actually care about the economy. They only care about stuff like transgender people being attacked.

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Donald Trump is a widely unpopular president. Does that matter?

There is an understanding amongst Democrats, however true, that Republicans are losing their enthusiasm for Trump. Polling certainly seems to corroborate this: According to a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll, the president has a 37% approval rating and a 61% disapproval rating.

This low percentage is based primarily on his handling of the economy and the war with Iran, two areas where Trump has broken campaign promises to fix the affordability crisis in the United States and not plunge the country into any new international conflicts.

But this approval rating is deceptive – while the majority of voters don’t believe Trump is doing a good job, 81% of Republicans polled in the survey say they approve of the president’s handling of affairs. Those voters are motivated to vote against Democrats in favor of what they see as progress within the United States.

A lot has also been said about the slow implosion of MAGA, based on attendance at his events and polling that showed how the release of files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein by the Justice Department had led to a fracture in the movement.

Yet the latest Republican strategy – fearmongering about the perceived rise of socialism and communism in the United States – is clearly working. And while Democrats have struggled to motivate voters on fear alone, Republicans have backed up that fear with policies that their voters believe will help in their day-to-day lives.

As a progressive, I find it frustrating that MAGA voters are so scared of pronouns and immigrants that they would rather vote against their economic interests in favor of the Republican culture wars. I understand that this is a difference of opinion. I am a woman. I am a queer person. I am the granddaughter of immigrants. Aside from the fact that I believe in the economic policy Democrats espouse, my identity and the identities of people I love are jeopardized by MAGA.

I have also come to terms with the fact that the hearts and minds of MAGA voters are set on supporting Trump and the Republican Party under his control. MAGA is the Republican Party; the party my father supported, the party of Ronald Reagan, no longer exists. In its place is a party of hate and fear. Democrats need to understand that and vote accordingly.

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What can Democrats do to win in the midterms?

For too long, the Democrats have focused on trying to convert moderate Republicans into liberal voters. This has proved to be a lost cause for at least a decade.

According to polling from The New York Times, 91% of “party-first Republicans” intend to vote with the GOP come November. Considering that the party has completely remade itself in the image of Trump, including in state and local races, voting for a Republican candidate who does not align themselves with MAGA is a thing of the past.

Despite this, Democrats have not abandoned the strategy of appealing to Republicans who might detest Trump but still consider themselves aligned with their chosen party. While they’re getting better at focusing on affordability, they have still failed to come up with clear, uniform messaging on culture war issues, like immigration and transgender rights.

People who voted Republican in 2024 because they believed attacking immigrants and transgender people would somehow make their lives better are not going to vote Democrat in 2026.

The HarrisX poll isn’t all bad news for Democrats. According to the survey, 44% of participants said they were more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate, compared with 41% who said they were more likely to vote for a Republican.

A separate poll from Verasight/Strength in Numbers found that 55% of people who hate both major political parties are planning to vote for Democrats in the midterms.

Above all, the left must stay motivated and continue getting voters excited about the November elections. While the candidates are mostly set, they need to prove that they are focused on economic issues plaguing voters while not shying away from talking about cultural issues when they arise. The fight for the future of the country is not settled just yet.

Follow USA TODAY columnist Sara Pequeño on Bluesky: @sarapequeno.bsky.social