US military leaders are deeply concerned about Trump

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It was the summer of 2015, and the venue was the British ambassador’s residence on Massachusetts Avenue in Washington DC. To be precise, it was the tennis court where a keenly fought doubles match was taking place. The first set had just concluded, and the players gathered at a table on which sat an ice bucket with Robinson’s Barley Water. How quintessentially British.

As drinks were consumed, former US president Barack Obama’s deputy national security adviser (NSA) turned to the ambassador and delivered a message which, while polite, could not have been more blunt: “You need to pass on to your prime minister that the president is deadly serious about the consequences of the UK reducing defence spending below 2 per cent of GDP. Don’t do it.”

I recount this episode with some confidence as I was one of the other players and thus party to the conversation. Talk about mixing business with pleasure. The deputy NSA was on transmit; the ambassador was on receive. Sure enough, UK defence spending did not drop below the magic 2 per cent.

The point is, there is nothing new about US presidents feeling aggravated, irked, infuriated by European leaders taking the US for granted when it comes to Nato spending. The way it looks in the US is that the security umbrella is something that America pays for and from which Europe benefits.

The difference between now and that tennis match 11 years ago is that Donald Trump doesn’t really see what Nato is for and cares about it even less. Obama never doubted the vital role the alliance played in keeping the European continent safe from the wars of the 20th century that claimed the lives of so many young Americans.

The ambivalence towards Nato during Trump’s first term, when he casually contemplated withdrawal and had to be talked down, has become downright hostility in the second, as we saw at the summit in Turkey, when he declared himself “not happy” with the alliance.

Look at the language he’s used since launching his ill-fated war against Iran. Nato was a “paper tiger”. Why? Because although Trump never once consulted any of his Nato allies about his planned attack, nor went through anything bothersome like getting UN approval, he felt enraged that other Nato forces didn’t immediately get behind him.

Troubling him with teeny-weeny details like Nato being a defensive organisation, not an offensive one, would just incur more wrath. What’s the point of Article 5, he cried (the bit in the charter which declares that an attack on one member nation is an attack on all)? Well, America hadn’t been attacked. America did the attacking.

Indeed, the only time that Article 5 has been invoked was by the US itself, back in 2001 in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. Nato rallied.

But a quarter of a century on from that dreadful day, would America come to our aid if we were attacked? The question has so much more resonance now following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its ever more aggressive posture towards the Baltic states and East European neighbours. Then there is the hybrid warfare that Russia is mounting – cutting undersea cables, paying hoodlums to firebomb a prime minister’s house – and many other provocations.

Does America care? Does it warn Russia to back off? Does it tell Vladimir Putin he can only go so far before crossing a red line? This White House occupant only ever seems to want to play nice with the Russian leader. Listening to Trump speak, you would think that Putin is the ally and Nato the enemy.

All of which leaves many of his military commanders deeply vexed. I think there is a mountain of guff spoken about the special relationship between the US and the UK. But in the areas of defence, intelligence-sharing and national security, it is real and it is valuable. America’s commanders rate us and we rate them.

One of the last big British embassy events I went to before I ended my posting in Washington was the screening of the most recent Bond film, No Time to Die. It was being shown at a US Navy theatre on Pennsylvania Avenue – and all the top brass were there, from both sides. Though none would dare talk about it on the record – they are serving officers – you can be sure that on the US side there are deep reservations about this president and the way the Pentagon is being run. Just listen to any number of retired generals on American TV.

But how much reassurance is it for Britain or any other Nato ally to know that these smart, highly skilled military commanders are quietly on our side when the Commander-in-chief is not?

There are times when Europe does not help itself. Look at the agony over Britain’s Defence Investment Plan, which forced resignations and where the finished document leaves a gaping hole in how the strategy is going to be funded. Trump ain’t going to love that.

The best that we can hope for is that, to state the bleedin’ obvious, we’re not attacked. Or that, if we are, it is after Trump has gone, defence spending across the continent has risen to a level that Britain and Western Europe are better able to fend for themselves and America has snapped back to a more sympathetic embrace and understanding.

But that is not a defence posture. That is wing-and-a-prayer stuff. The reality is we’d better get used to the idea that America can’t be relied on to come to our rescue.