The Daily Populous Wednesday July 1st, 2026 night edition
Authored by usatoday.com and submitted by usatoday

June 30, 2026, 9:44 a.m. ET

As the November midterms inch closer, new polling in the U.S. Senate race in Texas shows Democrats and Republicans in a dead tie.

A New York Times/Siena poll, published on Tuesday, June 30, shows Republican candidate Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton tied at 47% with Democratic candidate Texas state Rep. James Talarico. Of the 656 likely Texas voters surveyed, 6% had no opinion or declined to answer, and less than 1% named another candidate.

The poll comes after another recent poll from the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project last week showed Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%, a 1-point gap within the survey's margin of error.

Here's a deeper look into the Texas Senate poll from the New York Times.

Texans split sharply by gender, race and age in tied Senate poll

The poll was conducted from June 19-27, with a margin of error of about plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Here's what the poll tells us:

Paxton leads among men, 57% to 36%, while women favor Talarico, 56% to 38%.

Talarico runs strongest with younger Texans under the age of 44, while Paxton’s support draws from voters 45 and older.

Across racial and ethnic groups, Paxton draws 59% of white voters, 13% of Black voters and 29% of Hispanic voters, while Talarico draws 37%, 80% and 61% of those same groups, respectively.

The poll also asked likely voters to describe Paxton and Talarico, with those saying the following traits described them "very well" or "somewhat well":

Is too extreme : 43% Talarico, 50% Paxton.

: 43% Talarico, 50% Paxton. Has good character : 56% Talarico, 38% Paxton.

: 56% Talarico, 38% Paxton. Has the right kind of morals: 51% Talarico, 39% Paxton.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.

SlowRunner2026 on June 30th, 2026 at 14:25 UTC »

What is wrong with Texas that Paxton even has a chance?

Voluntus1 on June 30th, 2026 at 14:25 UTC »

How anyone could vote for Paxton, regardless of his policy, is frightening.

BrianThatDude on June 30th, 2026 at 14:24 UTC »

It's insane to me that this is even close. Shows how fucked this country is