I’ve negotiated with Trump’s foes. He’s taking a huge gamble

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A decade ago, I sat next to Iran’s oil minister and senior Shell executives signing documents in front of a full auditorium and the world’s television cameras.

The agreements were to allow the energy giant to re-engage in oil and gas fields in the west of Iran. The plan was that within a year or two, Shell would be working with Iranian partners to renovate, modernise and develop the rusting and broken infrastructure and open new streams of exports to the world.

That didn’t happen. The nuclear deal signed by Barack Obama in July 2015 was starved of oxygen and then abandoned during Donald Trump’s first term in the White House.

Shorts Scroll to previous short Scroll to next short What happens if the UK loses power – minute by minute How to keep your kids off screens over summer Eight food and drinks to have every week to cut dementia risk How to be happier at work in your 50s I’m a food editor – the easy ways I save on my weekly shop The 10 cleaning products a professional swears by Meet the employers who prefer hiring people without degrees The signs your body needs more water 1 2 3 4 5 6 The UK has one of the most stable electricity grids in the world. But no country’s energy system is 100 per cent secure and large-scale blackouts, although rare, are possible.

Here’s how to prepare, and what could happen, if we do have a blackout. 1 2 3 4 5 6 The immediate effects If the UK’s power went down tomorrow, these are the ways it is likely to impact you first. You’d get stuck in lifts, wherever you are in the lift shaft.

Trains would be stopped as the signals depend on electricity.

Traffic lights would stop working on the roads – leading to congestion or crashes.

Contactless payments are likely to fail.

Your Wi-Fi at home would stop working and communication becomes difficult.

Fridges and freezers will turn off – unless you have a standalone generator – and food will spoil over time.

Hospitals and water treatment works have their own backup generators so will keep going until their supply runs out. 1 2 3 4 5 6 How transport would be affected Caption: This photograph taken on April 29, 2026 shows people charging their electric vehicles at a charging station in Kathmandu. As global fuel markets reel from the Middle East war, motorists in Nepal are increasingly turning to electric vehicles, with high demand putting a strain on dealerships. (Photo by Prakash MATHEMA / AFP via Getty Images) / TO GO WITH ‘Nepal-Transport-Automobile-Energy’ FOCUS

For EV owners that are already on the road, Professor Keith Bell, who works in electricity planning, recommends that those with an EV with reasonable charge use it as a generator, like your own store of electricity.

In the case of the power system going down, petrol isn’t a totally safe option as queues at petrol stations could be huge and places are likely to run out of fuel. 1 2 3 4 5 6 The longer term effects The longer the power takes to return the worse things are likely to get. In 2021 Storm Arwen physically damaged power lines across the UK. Without nuclear to take the strain, that exposure to gas is costing us dear (Photo: Catherine Falls Commercial/Getty) Caption: FILE PHOTO: A row of electricity pylons is seen near the Frodsham on shore wind farm in Frodsham, Britain, September 5, 2023. REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo

During the 1977 New York blackout, which lasted 25 hours, there was civil unrest, resulting in widespread looting and arson, although intense heatwaves are thought to have exacerbated the situation. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Things to buy now to prepare The Russian state-owned Sputnik news agency took over the BBC’s radio frequency in Lebanon (Photo: Getty) Battery radio To get updates during a power cut – a car radio can be used, but in severe weather it might be safer to stay inside. Bottled water A minimum of 2.5-3 litres of drinking water per person per day is recommended. Caption: Plastic bottle with clean water on a blue background.

A Cuban rides his bike during a nation wide blackout in Havana on 21 March (Photo: Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty) Wind-up torch The Government recommends opting for torches over candles, for safety reasons. 1 2 3 4 5 6 How to prepare A blackout is unlikely but we should make small changes. If possible, don’t let your petrol tank run down to almost empty. Keep it over half full so you’re never caught short.

Always have a portable power bank, and spare batteries, to charge your phone and other essentials.

As card machines could fail, keep some cash at home.

To keep yourself distracted and entertained, keep board games and a pack of cards handy to play. The full article 1 2 3 4 5 Eight easy ways to stop

your child spending summer glued to their devices From Dr Amanda Gummer, child development expert, and founder of the Good Play Guide 1 2 3 4 5 Not all screen time is bad Using screens in a way that benefits your child’s development is key and balancing educational content and entertainment with offline activities ensures a well-rounded routine. DR GUMMER Read on to find out her tips for children aged five to 18 1 2 3 4 5 How to keep your kids off screens Outdoor activities For younger children, try scavenger hunts, garden games and nature walks. For older ones, hikes

and biking trips. Create a schedule Designated screen-free times helps children develop a routine that balances screen use with other activities. Caption: Mid adult man with eyeglasses sitting on a comfortable sofa at home, thoughtfully writing notes in a small notebook while natural sunlight illuminates the room

Family game nights It’s an excellent way

to bond and develop critical thinking skills. 1 2 3 4 5 How to keep your kids off screens Creative hobbies Getting creative, through drawing, painting or model construction, enhances cognitive skills and offers an alternative to screens. Social interaction Arrange playdates or group activities with friends, or for older kids try an overnight camping trip in the garden. 1 2 3 4 5 How to keep your kids off screens Lead by example Showing that you value offline time encourages your children to do the same. Have a reward Implement a reward system where screen time is earned through positive behaviour. Open conversations Discuss the importance of balancing screen time with your children so they understand the reasons behind the rules. 1 2 3 4 5 Can following a particular diet

help prevent or delay dementia? Some studies suggest so.

These are the eight brain-boosting foods registered dietitian Fareeha Jay

recommends people consume as part of a weekly diet… 1 2 3 4 5 Foods that can cut dementia risk Caption: A detail of cracked egg falling into the pan as woman holds egg shells in both hands.

Eggs They contain several nutrients thought to support brain health, including choline, vitamin B12 and iodine. Coffee Caffeine can reduce inflammation and

of brain cells. Barista hand making cappuccino Coffee with espresso machine in cafe – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) Cooking fruit and vegetables (Photor: GMVozd/Getty Images/E+)

Broccoli It’s packed with antioxidants and high in vitamin K, which is essentially for healthy brain cells. 1 2 3 4 5 Fibre is overlooked in dementia prevention Caption: Cookie jar, tea, wine, nuts, books, lit candles and Christmas decorations on the table. Cozy Christmas hygge at home. Selective focus.

To increase fibre intake, include wholegrains, nuts, seeds, lentils, and legumes.

Fermented foods also support brain health by improving the gut microbiome. LIFESTYLE Why you should eat fermented foods – and how to add them into your diet 4 min read 1 2 3 4 5 Foods that can cut dementia risk (Photo: Joff Lee/Getty Images) Oily fish Your brain uses Omega-3s to build brain and nerve cells – so a diet rich in them may slow age-related mental decline. Walnuts These improve heart health markers, which is linked to a lower risk of neurological disorders. Health professionals are nuts about nuts – with good reason! Supermarkets report increasing demand for blueberries (Photo: RHS/Guy Harrop) Blueberries They contain compounds which have been shown to improve blood flow to the brain, cognitive function, and memory. 1 2 3 4 5 The Mind diet The diet aims to reduce dementia risk and the decline in brain health. It was created in 2015 by Dr Martha Clare Morris and colleagues at Rush University Medical Centre and the Harvard Chan School of Public Health.

It encourages vegetables, berries, nuts, whole grains, olive oil, fish, beans, and poultry.

These foods contain nutrients that promote good brain health by reducing oxidative stress and inflammation. 1 2 3 4 5 6 The Midlife MOT is open to all and covers three key areas: work, wealth and well-being (Photo: Westend61/Getty) Feeling insecure at work

in your 50s? You’re not alone One ageing expert gives

her tips on finding meaning and joy in your career 1 2 3 4 5 6 The final decades of work There’s this assumption about being put out to pasture… but now that we’re living and working longer, we have to challenge myths around ageing and remember that over-50s are a crucial part of the workforce… LYNDSEY SIMPSON, AUTHOR OF AGE REBELLION AND FOUNDER OF 55/REDEFINED 1 2 3 4 5 6 The current situation By 2030, almost half of all employees in the UK workforce will be over 50. 36% Now one in three workers are over 50. Yet more than a third of those between 50 and 69 believe that their age puts them at a disadvantage when they apply for jobs.

37% The Age Without Limits study from 2024 shows that 37 per cent of workers between 51 to 70 felt badly treated in work because of their age. 1 2 3 4 5 6 The things to do, says Simpson More and more people are using AI for counselling (Photo: Oscar Wong/Getty/Moment RF) Keep learning new skills We need the same level of career planning in

our fifties as our twenties. It’s possible to reinvent yourself again. Embrace technology It’s nonsense that older people can’t pick up how to use new tech. Caption: John?r Bildbyr? AB

Caption: This is a photo of a woman clutching a pink piggy bank labelled pension. See PA Feature FINANCE Pension Pots. WARNING: This picture must only be used to accompany PA Feature FINANCE Pension Pots. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Alamy/PA

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Think about money Do you need a pay rise? Could you trade some of that money you earn, to work a bit less, and do more things you enjoy? 1 2 3 4 5 6 The things not to do Become full-time childcare

Grandparenting on the horizon? If you don’t want to do childcare, have the conversation early – even before a child becomes pregnant – that you plan to continue working and love your job. Caption: Indoor image of thoughtful puzzled senior woman with gray hair in glasses looking at paycheck holding head in hand, upset with high rent charge, sitting at kitchen table in front of laptop

Grandparents and granddaughter gardening together – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) Accept redundancy too quickly

It’s going to be so much harder to get back into work if you don’t have a plan before you take that leap. 1 2 3 4 5 6 The things not to do Rush into retirement Senior bed woman problem pain headache home elderly mature pain bedroom upset unhappy female caucasian adult relationship retirement old difficulty ache head sick migraine hangover sleep – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) Everybody thinks early retirement is the dream but the reality can be different. There can be loneliness, lack of purpose and a sense of invisibility. LIFESTYLE Seven ways to have a happy, healthy retirement, according to the experts 5 min read 1 2 3 4 5 6 By November, UK food prices will be 50 per cent higher than they were at the start of the cost-of-living crisis With that in mind, food editor Sophie Morris shares how she saves money on her weekly shop 1 2 3 4 5 6 Easy ways to save on the weekly shop Caption: NORTHWICH, ENGLAND – JULY 06: Whole chicken sit on display in a Tesco supermarket on July 06, 2022 in Northwich, England. The British Retail Consortium recently said food manufacturers and supermarkets are having to pass on some of the cost of soaring raw materials to consumers, leading to the price of basic goods throughout the UK rising at the fastest pace since September 2008. Fresh food prices increased by 6% in the year to June 2022 coupled with an increase in inflation, and fuel and energy prices to create a cost of living crisis. This is leading to millions of low-income households going without essentials items, falling behind on bills and taking on debt. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

Avoid chicken breast Boneless chicken thighs are all meat and a much tastier product. Don’t plan everything If you plan every meal all week, there’s no leeway for necessary last-minute changes of plan (or leftovers). Man Cooking By Woman Chopping Carrots In Kitchen – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) Governments are not all powerful when it comes to huge international forces like those increasing global food prices (Photo: Oscar Wong/Getty Images/Moment RF) Shop alone There are so many products that children want to fill the trolley with – all kinds of exciting eye candy. It’s cheaper to go alone. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Easy ways to save on the weekly shop Consider a vegetable box delivery

Having a Riverford box delivery helps Morris avoid impulse buys and go to the shops

less – even though the box is pricey. “It is expensive, but of great quality and organic”. Milk and potatoes prices are expected to increases sharply later this year, say supply chain experts (Photo: Kate Wieser/Getty) Low carb, FODMAP diet food background with vegetables, fruits, smoked salmon, chicken fillet, greens, nuts, olives. Menu for healthy eating . – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) Track your spending

It doesn’t need to be an elaborate spreadsheet but without some kind of metric, it’s impossible to spot where you

can or must make cutbacks. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Easy ways to save on the weekly shop The supermarket loyalty schemes vary in their generosity (Photo: Paul Childs/Reuters) Look for yellow stickers You can save plenty

over a year by never buying branded products at full price. Take stock Do a quick cupboard stocktake. You might find you already have three jars of one thing. Mid-Adult Couple Calculating Their Finances On The Laptop In The Kitchen – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) “Soft restrictions” aren’t infallible; we can always make the effort to get a ladder and get the biscuit tin down from the highest shelf (Photo: Getty) Avoid packaged snacks Packing fruit, biscuits, and nuts etc into a Tupperware to take out is more cost effective than buying tiny packaged portions. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Easy ways to save on the weekly shop Be wary of DIY treats “Faking” a takeaway at home can sound like a cheaper option, but if it’s something you don’t usually cook – that needs new ingredients – it could work out pricier. Whatever you buy, buy British if you can. That will help boost fishermen’s finances (Photo: Betty Laura Zapata/Getty) Caption: A customer looks at packages of chilled chicken cuts in a part-empty refrigerated display unit at a Lidl supermarket store in Walthamstow, west London, on September 21, 2021. (Photo by Tolga Akmen / AFP) (Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images)

Do you need it now? Returning a few things to the shelves that you won’t need in the near future can save you a healthy amount. Skip a shop Every time you make do with what’s at home,

you save big. Supermarkets will find ways of holding down the price of the basics, and try to make their money on the fancy lines (Photo: Roy James Shakespeare/Getty) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Easy ways to save on

the weekly shop Try a week or a month of shopping local,

and you might be surprised at the results,

in terms of cost and other benefits like supporting local businesses, and

avoiding car journeys and traffic. Defenders of the triple Lock point to the fact pensioners are often asset-rich and income-poor. (Photo: Getty)

Go shopping when you’re not in a huge rush so you can make relaxed and informed decisions. Don’t expect to stick to your plan or make great choices when you’re in a hurry. 1 2 3 4 5 I’ve been a cleaner for 30 years – these are the 10 products I swear by Rebecca Jones has tried most cleaning products in her

She shares the ones she can’t

live without. 1 2 3 4 5 The 10 best cleaning products Best vacuum Henry is a classic.

It has fantastic filters, sucks up pet hair quickly, and is great at cleaning up fine dust. Best mop and bucket The Vileda H2PrO set is light, manoeuvrable and keeps clean and dirty water separate. A reader has asked whether or not she should sack her cleaner because she isn’t doing a good job anymore (Photo: stock image of a man cleaning a window via Getty Images) Best glass cleaner The HG Glass and

Mirror cleaner removes stains without leaving smudges or streaks. 1 2 3 4 5 The 10 best cleaning products Best multipurpose cleaner

Method’s multi-surface cleaner is plant-based, cruelty-free, and works great on grease, sinks, sealed wood surfaces, hobs, bins and sealed laminated floors. Deep cleaning glass door handles for Covid-19 disease prevention. alcohol,disinfectant spray on Wipes of Banister in home for safety,infection of Covid-19 virus,contamination, germs – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) Best toilet brush

Unlike a regular toilet brush, nothing gets stuck in the bristles of Ibergrif M34152 Silicone brush. It also dries quickly, so

there’s less odour. 1 2 3 4 5 The 10 best cleaning products Best mould remover Jones uses the HG Mould Spray on walls, tiles, grout, windows and outdoor furniture. (Photo: boonchai wedmakawand/Getty/Moment RF) Best cloths The Seep Eco Bamboo clothes have a streak-free finish and last. Best carpet cleaner Every home should have a bottle of Dr Beckmann’s stain remover, says Jones. Caption: Dr Beckmann Power Brush Stain Remover

1 2 3 4 5 The 10 best cleaning products Best stain remover

The Mr Siga Multi-Functional Eraser Sponge acts like fine sandpaper to lift

dirt, stains, and scuffs using only water. (Photo: Viktoriya Skorikova/Getty Images/Moment RF)

Jones uses Bar Keepers Friend Cleanser to polish stainless-steel, scour sinks and clean her fridge and cookware.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Around 957,000 people aged 16 to 24 are classed as NEET ie. not in Education, Employment or Training But as youth unemployment rises, not all companies

are looking to universities to find their new recruits. Meet the people who have benefitted. Poorer graduates will be hit hardest by the changes, the National Union of Students says (Photo: Andrew Fox/Getty/Image Bank) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 For young people unable to attend uni My whole life was being a carer, so I was very lost… From the age of around 10, Bruce Devlin took responsibility for everything at home – from administering his mother’s medication, to doing the shopping, cooking, cleaning and supporting his mother’s mental health.

He scraped through school, leaving with the lowest grades.

Now, aged 26, he has secured a job by pursuing an unconventional route. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The charities helping them Bruce followed an unconventional route. Getting a foot in the door seemed impossible with his qualifications, lack of experience and connections.

His Job Centre work coach put him in touch with Generation, a non-profit which partners with companies to identify roles which they are struggling to fill.

He landed a place on Generation’s first IT support boot camp and benefited from CV and interview coaching.

Bruce is now a level three senior quality engineer with 2i Testing, a company which tests other companies’ software. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The result Getting a full-time salary and being a contributing member of society is an amazing achievement. Without this, I’d be just another person on jobseeker’s allowance, wasting any potential I had. BRUCE DEVLIN, 26, GLASGOW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The apprenticeship route Jessica Andrea Carvalho had an offer to start a media and marketing degree but she rejected it at the last minute to avoid huge debt and years of classroom learning. Jessica got a place on a year-long digital business and data apprenticeship in 2023 with Multiverse.

Now, aged 21, she has been promoted to a global senior account executive. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Avoiding increasing

NEET numbers Young woman at her first job interview with the owner of a coffee shop – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) Generation placed 700 people

like Bruce in jobs last year.

like Bruce in jobs last year. The number of placements has jumped 20 per cent from last year.

42 per cent of their learners come from the UK’s most deprived areas. Big Read Inside the Salford secondary school where every pupil gets a job when they leave 10 min read 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Plan 5 applies to students who began university courses on or after August 2023

What do employers think? Creating more routes in is not just about opportunity – it helps bring in talent with different experiences. Paula Cunnington, the chief talent officer for Publicis Groupe UK, a network of marketing agencies that has hired 79 apprentices, says curiosity and real-world experience are far better indicators of future success. 1 2 3 4 5 Up to 75 per cent of us in the UK are not drinking enough water. The human body can survive for a time without food, but it cannot survive for long without water.

Here are the signs you need more fluids, according to a GP. 1 2 3 4 5 How much we should drink Water is the most vital component for life. 6-8 NHS guidelines advise we should be drinking six to eight glasses of fluid per day. This does vary depending on our activity levels, the weather, and if we are ill. 80% An estimated 50-80 per cent of our bodies and brains being made up of water. It allows us to deliver nutrients to cells in our blood, lubricates our joints, regulates our temperature and much more. 1 2 3 4 5 How to stay hydrated What to drink Not all fluids are the same – water takes top spot, as it hydrates without sugars or calories, but lower-fat milks, sugar-free drinks or moderate amounts of tea and coffee can all count towards fluid intake. Caption: Asian girl grocery shopping in supermarket. She is choosing fresh fruit juice along the beverage aisle, reading the nutrition label and checking ingredients on the bottle. Making a healthier food choice and balanced diet. Healthy eating lifestyle

A reader bemoans that his children spend money on fancy coffees and holidays with friends, never having a penny left each month

(Photo: Getty/Gorica Poturak) What to avoid Limit smoothies and fruit juices to 150ml per day because the sugar causes dental decay. 1 2 3 4 5 Signs you’re not drinking enough 1. Our brains The pain from migraines is sometimes described as feeling like you’ve had an axe blow to the head (Photo: Getty) When dehydrated, we can display an exaggerated response to pain and experience headaches. Concentration, attention, reaction times and short-term memory can also all be negatively impacted. LIFESTYLE Drink milk and avoid air con – the expert guide to hydration 6 min read 1 2 3 4 5 Signs you’re not drinking enough 2. Our bodies

Another common sign of dehydration is constipation. Our skin can look duller, be less bouncy to the touch and be less elastic. Tired Asian businesswoman working on a laptop computer in the office – stock photo. (Photo: Getty) (Photo: Ekaterina Demidova/Getty). 3. Our psychology

Research has shown that even mild dehydration can lead us to feel more moody, stressed and irritable. We can also feel more tired than usual, with less energy and motivation.

Fast forward 10 years, and Trump is now working on his deal. After a damaging war for both sides, trust could not be lower.

Having served as Britain’s ambassador to Iran during the period immediately following the last deal, I find much of what is unfolding today depressingly familiar.

I arrived in Tehran on New Year’s Eve 2015 under circumstances that were a reminder of the region’s unpredictability. Driving up the main avenue from the airport into the massive sprawling city of 14 million people, I recalled the words of a former British ambassador who told me that after serving in the Arab Gulf states, coming to Iran “you realise you are in a real country”. From that, I took that Iran is not simply a problem to be managed or a threat to be contained. It is a large, sophisticated and deeply political society with competing centres of power. It also has a long strategic memory.

Just weeks after my arrival, our small embassy team gathered in the newly reopened British Embassy to mark Implementation Day, when UN sanctions were lifted. There was a genuine sense that a door had opened. What struck me in those early days was the extent to which some within the Iranian leadership were thinking beyond the narrow parameters of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Shortly after my arrival, Iran’s then foreign minister, Javad Zarif, summoned the diplomatic corps to a meeting. He outlined an ambitious proposal for what was effectively an Organisation for Security and Cooperation in the Middle East. Zarif argued that the region needed a framework through which rivals could manage disputes, reduce tensions and establish rules of behaviour.

He drew on the 1975 Helsinki process, which helped ease Cold War tensions and ultimately contributed to transforming the European security landscape. But Western governments, including the UK, largely dismissed the proposal. There were understandable reasons for scepticism. Iran’s actions across the region often contradicted its rhetoric. Yet, with hindsight, it may have deserved more consideration than it received.

Success in Iran could transform Trump’s foreign policy legacy (Photo: Giorgio Viera / AFP via Getty Images)

The central lesson for Trump – who this weekend claimed Iran “will never learn” as the two countries exchanged attacks and traded blame for ceasefire violations – is not that diplomacy with Iran is impossible, but that diplomacy that fails to address underlying political realities is unlikely to last.

The 2015 agreement achieved important objectives, at least in the short term. It placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme and established an intrusive inspection regime. Yet, it still contained fatal weaknesses.

The first was political. Obama lacked the bipartisan support necessary to embed the agreement securely in American law. Instead, it rested largely on presidential authority. That made it vulnerable.

The second weakness was its scope. The agreement addressed the nuclear issue but left untouched a range of other disputes that still dominate the region. Iran’s missile programme was excluded as was Tehran’s support for armed groups and proxies across the Middle East. As a result, opponents on all sides were able to argue that the deal either went too far or not nearly far enough.

The deal collapsed not because diplomacy had failed, but because its political foundations proved too fragile. When Trump entered the White House, he was simply able to reverse US policy through another presidential action. The US withdrew and prevented many international businesses and financial institutions from participating in its implementation.

That history matters now – because many of the same forces remain in place.

One of the enduring missteps around Iran is the tendency to treat it as a unified actor. In reality, competing power centres coexist. During my time in Tehran, there was constant tension between the elected government and foreign ministry on one side and the security establishment, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on the other.

The political environment is now harder, yet the contest between those who favour engagement and those who benefit from confrontation remains.

Abbas Araghchi, one of the principal architects of the 2015 negotiations, remains a central figure as foreign minister. Much of the expertise assembled for the Obama-era talks is still present within Iran’s diplomatic machinery.

But today’s Iran is not the Iran of President Hassan Rouhani. The balance of power has shifted. The political space available for advocates of engagement is narrower than it was a decade ago. This is why the approach adopted by the US matters so much.

A billboard depicting the late Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his son, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (Picture: Anwar Amro/AFP via Getty Images)

The Trump administration should seek to strengthen those within Iran who favour engagement. Measures that reinforce the narrative of Western hostility or seek to humiliate Iran are likely to play into the hands of hardliners.

The reported text of the proposed deal is extraordinary in ways that would have been difficult to imagine even a few years ago. Unlike previous arrangements, it includes addressing US sanctions, as well as broader questions of economic integration. It points towards the possibility of a fundamentally transformed relationship.

If US companies invested in Iran – and there would be many hurdles to overcome – it would generate significant commercial benefits for the US. It would also lead to change from within the Islamic Republic – which so far has proved elusive.

Iran’s oil minister said this month that if Western stakeholders adhere to the spirit of the pact, hundreds of investment opportunities stand ready. The foreign minister spoke of a “trillion-dollar opportunity for the US”.

If realised, such an outcome would catalyse a strategic reordering of the Middle East. Over time, it could place Iran in a position far closer to the US than many observers would once have thought possible.

That is an enormous gamble for Trump.

This outcome would represent one of the most significant diplomatic achievements in the region for decades and could transform Trump’s foreign policy legacy. But there is a more plausible – and damaging – outcome.

For every member of the Iranian regime pushing for economic opening and integration, there are many others interested in maintaining Iran’s isolation. Continued conflict in Lebanon strengthens opponents of compromise. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz raises the prospect of escalation, and regional actors who view a US-Iran rapprochement as threatening have every reason to complicate things.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has long been sceptical of agreements that leave the current Iranian regime intact. Trump appears willing to explore a broader accommodation.

For now, diplomacy remains alive. Despite his track record, this US President is perhaps uniquely positioned to coerce support and neutralise opposition. If he does, it would be the crowning achievement of his presidency and may indeed merit a Nobel Prize.

A decade ago, Obama’s nuclear agreement opened a window that many hoped would remain open. It did not. Now, another window may be opening. The challenge is that the forces trying to shut it are already hard at work.