Is Texas About to Weather a Big Blue Storm?

Yes, Virginia, there may in fact be a blue wave in Texas this year.

I’ve been in Texas politics for most of my adult life. I worked for Governor Ann Richards, a Democrat. And I worked for Republican George W. Bush when he ran for the governor’s mansion—and the White House. I’ve witnessed the best of times and the worst of times for both parties.

Which is to say: I’ve seen a lot of changes. From Blue Dog Democrats to the Tea Party to MAGA. From LBJ to Dubya to Greg Abbott.

For years now, with every political cycle, members of the media, as well as interested parties of every stripe, have asked me the same question: “Is this the year a blue wave hits Texas?”

And I’ve always been the guy tapping the brakes. Because even when Texas was a Democratic state, most of the elected officials were very conservative. Senator Lloyd Bentsen almost certainly would have run as a Republican today. And even though Richards was progressive in many ways, she got elected by campaigning with a shotgun, taking aim at birds, and arguing in debates that she would be as tough as her opponents on the death penalty.

The main mistake many observers have made is believing that because there is indeed a rising tide of Hispanic voters in the state, they will be reliably Democratic voters. But the Hispanic electorate has never been a monolithic, or quantifiable, bloc. And in Texas, if the majority of such voters can be characterized at all, they tend to be quite conservative. If pollsters have learned anything from such respondents, they’ll say that most, like many Texans, favor faith and family, law and order—including getting in line to become an American citizen. So it shouldn’t have been a huge surprise that Hispanics in Texas border counties turned out in large numbers for Donald Trump in 2024.