The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Means the Iran War Can’t End

Three months into the Iran War, Gulf states are pushing the United States and Israel toward a lasting peace settlement with Tehran. The talks are stalling on two points neither side will abandon: Iran’s nuclear materials and Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has created a new government bureaucracy to collect tolls from ships passing through the Strait. Iran cites the 1936 Montreux Convention covering the Turkish Straits as legal justification. Washington counters that Turkey charges service fees for navigation aids and rescue services, not tolls. Nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil and 18 percent of the world’s natural gas passes through the Strait. The Iran War is heading toward becoming a frozen conflict.

As the War in Iran reaches its third month and heads into its fourth, there is a feverish push, orchestrated by the Gulf states of the Middle East, to get the United States (and Israel) to make a lasting peace with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Right now, it looks like those talks are stalling along two consistent points that neither the Americans nor the Iranians will abandon: the alleged nuclear materials that Iran either has or is developing, and ending Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is the Real Problem

Setting aside the issue of Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities (weren’t they “oblierated” last year?), Let’s focus on the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Americans, Arab states, and the rest of the world desperately want the Strait of Hormuz reopened and governed under the same parameters that it was before the war began.

But Tehran’s new leadership has different plans.

Sure, the new ayatollah of Iran (who is only in that role because we killed his father at the start of the Iran War) wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened because then Iran can move its oil and natural gas to its clients in places like China again. However, the new Iranian leadership wants the Strait reopened under its control.

Herein lies the source of the tension between the US and Iran in the current round of negotiations to end the war.

Neither side can agree on this.

The American position is unacceptable to Iran, and the Iranian position, naturally, is untenable for the Americans, the Arabs, and the wider world. This is not a deal either side can make. In fact, the only way the Iranians would return to the ex ante status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is if the American side made considerable concessions in other areas, such as sanctions relief.

Setting that aside, we should also focus on accepting Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Recently, Tehran announced the creation of a new government bureaucracy to collect tolls from ships passing through the Strait and manage it on behalf of the Islamic Republic. Here again, the Americans and Arab states were mortified by this. What’s more, other countries around the world feared what sort of precedent this would set from a legal perspective.

Both the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Sultanate of Oman have territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz. Under international law, vessels have the right of innocent passage and transit passage. But Iran exercises de facto control over the waterway and its traffic. Here’s where things get interesting.

The Americans and Arabs are understandably caterwauling over the fact that Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran is refusing to let go of it without exacting a heavy price, either in the form of tolls for passing ships (or sanctions relief).

The Americans and Arabs are correct in opposing the imposition of any toll for third-party passage through the Strait. That’s because it will empower Iran both economically and militarily. Sadly, the West was the one that initiated the current war.

And the West has failed to achieve a strategic victory in the war that it started.

Thus, the Iranians get a vote in how the conflict’s political outcome will look.

So long as they get a vote, the Iranian position on the Strait of Hormuz becomes problematic for Western sensibilities.

Iran claims that, because it never signed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which explicitly established the regime of Transit Passage for international straits (such as the Strait of Hormuz), it is not bound by the limitations imposed on states by UNCLOS. What’s more, Tehran argues that the United States has not ratified UNCLOS, meaning Washington (in their eyes) has little authority to argue against Iran’s interpretation of Transit Passage for the Strait of Hormuz.

Per the Iranian argument, the Islamic Republic is a “persistent objector” to the Transit rule and, thus, only countries that have ratified UNCLOS should enjoy its protection.

Iran points to another international legal norm: some countries do extract fees for using waterways that fall within their territory. The Egyptians charge tolls for passing through the Suez Canal, as does Panama for the Panama Canal. Since those are man-made canals explicitly built to enhance international maritime transportation, international law provides special exemptions for countries like Egypt.

Tehran usually points to the Montreux Convention governing the Turkish Straits.

Like the Strait of Hormuz, the Turkish Strait is an international waterway that passes through Turkish territory. Plus, it’s a naturally formed waterway, like the Strait (unlike the Suez and Panama Canals). And the Turks generate profit from ships utilizing the Turkish Straits. Iran, therefore, believes that it could do something similar for the Strait of Hormuz.

Washington, however, argues that the devil is in the details. Essentially, the Montreux Convention was signed during a unique moment in the history of international law. Back in 1936, when the convention was signed, the international legal regime was nowhere near as fleshed out as it is today.

Essentially, the Montreux Convention was “grandfathered in” to the existing legal protocols for Transit Passage.

But, Iran’s claim that because it isn’t a signatory to UNCLOS and is a “persistent objector,” gives Tehran some credibility to make the case that they should, too, be allowed to create a working toll system for the Strait of Hormuz.

Washington counters that the Turks do not impose tolls on ships passing through the Turkish Straits. Instead, Ankara charges “service fees” that are divided into three distinct categories. Sanitary and medical inspections, lighthouse maintenance and navigation aids, and life-saving and maritime rescue services.

Service Fee or Toll? A Distinction Without a Difference?

This sounds like somewhat of a distinction without a difference, though, wouldn’t you say?

That’s certainly the argument Tehran is making. Since they have not been militarily defeated, the Iranian perspective must be taken into account in any war settlement plan. And that is why the current spate of negotiations between the Americans and Iranians is going nowhere fast.

Nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and nearly 18 percent of the world’s natural gas passes through, too.

That’s to say nothing of the one-third of fertilizer that moves through the Strait along with all the other essential products the world economy relies on for basically everything. There’s no way that the Americans could ever willingly settle for Iran having the ability to charge “service fees” to any foreign ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iran War Becomes a Frozen Conflict?

Basically, we are back to square one regarding what will happen next in the Iran War. Any peace negotiation is a fantasy engaged in by the gullible (and desperate) people most negatively impacted by the war, who are hoping above all else that the pain will end sooner rather than later.

But the way in which the Iranian government has navigated this crisis, and how they are demanding the political outcome look, ensures that, at the very least, the Iran War becomes another perennially frozen conflict.

During this time, no significant amount of goods or services can move through the Strait of Hormuz, compounding the impending economic calamity heading our way.

About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert is a Senior National Security Editor. Recently, Weichert became the editor of the “NatSec Guy” section at Emerald. TV. He was previously the senior national security editor at The National Interest. Weichert hosts The National Security Hour on iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern. He hosts a companion show on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” Weichert consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, among them Popular Mechanics, National Review, MSN, and The American Spectator. And his books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert’s newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase at any bookstore. Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.