The Daily Populous Sunday May 3rd, 2026 day edition
Authored by ember-energy.org and submitted by sg_plumber

Fossil fuel demand for power generation is on a trajectory for continued decline

With 80% of the OECD already committed to or having completed coal phase-outs, fossil-fuel power is expected to continue declining. Even in countries without formal coal phase-out dates, dependency is falling as renewable capacity expands rapidly.

Australia, for example, is targeting 82% renewable generation by 2030 to displace a coal share that currently stands at 43%. South Australia exemplifies this potential: it phased out coal in 2016 and now sources 74% of its electricity from wind and solar.

In the United States, subnational policies are further accelerating the decarbonisation of the power sector. California is mandated to reach 60% renewable energy by 2030 and 100% by 2045, while states like Connecticut and Minnesota have pledged 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040.

A similar direction is visible elsewhere. Türkiye aims to reach a 54.7% renewable share by 2035, building on the 43% reached in 2025, while South Korea’s 11th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand projects renewable shares rising from 9.6% in 2023 to 18.8% by 2030 and 29.2% by 2038.

Poland — still the most coal-reliant OECD nation, with coal at 50% share of its 2025 mix (87 TWh) — is also accelerating its transition, from a 32% renewable share by 2025 toward at least 50% by 2030 and 59% by 2040. Meanwhile, Colombia joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance in 2023, pledging to halt new coal construction and phase out unabated coal use.

Renewables are becoming increasingly more cost-competitive than fossil fuels in the electricity sector

The price competitiveness of solar and wind energy is now the primary driver of power sector decarbonisation. In 2025, the average Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar ($39/MWh) and onshore wind ($40/MWh) was 60% lower than that of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), which stood at $102/MWh. Offshore wind ($100/MWh) has also reached price parity, becoming fully competitive with CCGT.

Falling battery costs are reinforcing this shift. Hybrid solar-plus-storage projects now reach an LCOE of $57/MWh — nearly half that of gas.

At these cost levels, the phase-out of fossil fuels is no longer driven by climate goals alone. It is now an economic imperative, reducing exposure to global energy market volatility and strengthening energy security, especially for countries that are fossil fuel importers.

The structural decline of fossil fuels across OECD nations provides concrete evidence that a rapid transition to a clean power mix is entirely achievable. While this shift was historically led by mature economies when clean technology required high initial investment, the plummeting costs of solar, wind and storage are now stimulating rapid, extraordinary changes across the world.

The OECD’s trajectory serves as a critical blueprint, proving that as fossil power enters a permanent retreat, other nations can leverage today’s affordable technologies to accelerate their own transitions and establish secure, resilient energy infrastructure.

Beyond the OECD – a new development pathway for emerging economies

At the global level, 2025 marked a historic turning point. For the first time in over a century, renewables (33.8%, 10,730 TWh) overtook coal (33.0%, 10,476 TWh) in the power mix, fueled by the relentless expansion of solar and wind. Global coal generation dropped by 63 TWh (-0.6%), its first decline since the 2020 COVID pandemic year. Remarkably, solar and wind alone met nearly the entirety (99%) of global electricity demand growth throughout the year.

In China and India — the world’s largest and third-largest fossil power producers — fossil fuel generation fell simultaneously in 2025. Despite still being heavily dependent on fossil fuels for 58% and 73% of their electricity respectively, this historic shift led to a combined reduction of 79 MtCO2e in power sector emissions compared to 2024.

In China, fossil generation dropped by 0.9% (-56 TWh) in 2025 as solar output surged by 40% (+336 TWh), meeting two-thirds of the country’s new electricity demand. This reduction in China could signal the beginning of a global decline in fossil power.

Similarly, India saw a 3.3% (-52 TWh) decrease in fossil power following a record 24% (+98 TWh) increase in renewable generation. Unlike China, which faced higher costs and immature technology at the start of its transition, India is now diverging from a coal-heavy path by utilizing cost-competitive clean energy. Notably, both nations are skipping the traditional coal-to-gas pathway and moving directly from coal to renewables.

Pepphen77 on May 3rd, 2026 at 08:03 UTC »

Meanwhile China is installing more new coal power then everyone else all together ready to get back to surpass any previous output. They have some economic issues though.

WiseOldBMW on May 2nd, 2026 at 23:05 UTC »

GO SCIENCE GUYS, GO!!!!

CDN-Social-Democrat on May 2nd, 2026 at 22:41 UTC »

Solar Power & Wind Power are not just some of the cleanest forms of energy they are also the CHEAPEST.

We can have cleaner more affordable energy.

Electrification Technology is massively exploding as well.

We are in for a next era of energy and technology and we have to stop allowing some bad predatory actors in the Fossil Fuel Industry and corrupt politics to hold everything back.

Also this war is only going to continue to supercharge investment, research & development, and implementation of Renewable Energy/Electrification Technology.

We are seeing Demand Destruction dimensions just continue to grow and grow in regards to Fossil Fuels.