The Daily Populous Tuesday April 21st, 2026 night edition
Authored by inews.co.uk and submitted by theipaper

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When the destroyer USS Spruance blew a hole in the Iranian freighter MV Touska in the Arabian Sea on Sunday, it blew a great big hole in the magical thinking about war, peace, and the manifest political destiny of Donald J Trump in his second presidential term.

This was the first time US forces had fired on a civilian ship in the region since America and Israel went to war against Iran there on 28 February. The sporadic exchange of fire over the weekend means that the conflict goes on, to the damage of friend, foe and neutral alike – to say nothing of the crippling effect on the global economy for months to come.

It has given a huge psychological and political advantage to the Islamic Republic of Iran – one that the ayatollahs and their praetorian guard of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp) could barely have dreamed of before 28 February. They now control the destiny of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. They now hold the initiative in any negotiations about the waterway.

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By blowing hot and cold about deal or no deal with the US, they create a virus of uncertainty. While this persists, most mercantile shipping will not be able to find a single underwriter worth the name on the international insurance market.

Trump posted a typically bombastic account of the strike on the Touska, which was followed by US Marines abseiling on to its decks from the assault ship USS Tripoli. “The Iranian crew refused to listen,” wrote Trump on Truth Social, “so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engine room”.

The freighter was now “in the custody” of the US Marines. Trump later added that peace talks would resume this week with Vice President JD Vance now heading to meet the Iranian delegation in Islamabad.

Tehran responded within minutes that there would be no meaningful talks in Pakistan. “We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy of the US military,” the IRGC spokesman said.

A helicopter carries US Marines from the amphibious assault ship USSTripoli in what Centcom said was an operation to board and seize Iranian-flagged cargo ship MV Touska (Photo: US Central Command/Reuters)

Trump is now faced with a resumption of war – and with very few allies to help. Israel is now involved in fighting on four fronts – Iran, Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon – five if you include the Houthis of Yemen now threatening the second major chokepoint of the region, the Bab el-Mandeb, a narrow strait at the neck of the Red Sea.

Both Israeli and US forces are facing shortages of key munitions and ordnance – sophisticated precision-guided missiles, such as the Tomahawk land attack missile from warships and submarines, and missiles for Patriot and Iron Dome air defence systems. Trump will have to go to Congress for war funding. His war effort is being costed at $200bn – and so far, only about $40bn has been offered.

Trump’s bid will come as the war grows increasingly unpopular in the US – with a hike of petrol and food prices on the way and inflation forecast to go beyond 4.5 per cent. There is also the question of the War Powers Resolution – revised during the Vietnam crisis in 1973. This holds that a president must go to Congress for authorisation and subvention after 40 days of hostilities. The decision to go to war has to be questioned in terms of whether the vital interests of the United States were under threat in the first place.

The Iranian regime is now an odd, cat’s cradle collection of clannist, military and clerical interest groups, as much apt to quarrel as to agree. However, the politicians and commanders seem to know how to play Trump brilliantly. Much of their arsenal has been destroyed, and the economy is in ruins. But they believe they have more than enough to back their strategy in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The surface fleet of the Iranian navy has been destroyed. But the amphibious commando forces of the Revolutionary Guard have about 70 per cent of their arsenal intact, including attack launches, and drones. They can launch a strike at a moment’s notice.

Despite the comprehensive surveillance by spy planes, drones and satellites, the Americans and Israelis don’t seem to know the location of many of the drones and missile launchers, which are well concealed in caves and underground bunkers. It is unlikely that the US Navy and Marines could keep the Strait of Hormuz open without committing huge forces. This would leave America vulnerable elsewhere – in Europe where it cannot escape entanglement over Ukraine, and the chokepoints of the East and South China Seas, ie Taiwan, and the Sea of Japan.

Trump repeats that he has been let down by Nato and Nato allies in not joining his six-week war on Iran. This is another piece of weird, magical thinking. The Gulf, Red Sea, Levant – the modern Middle East – are well outside the Nato defensive area, designated by treaty as stretching “from the Atlantic to the Urals”, as the old Cold War formula put it. Furthermore, Nato is an alliance based on democratic principles – it is underpinned by a deliberative body, the North Atlantic Council, empowered by the legislatures of member countries. Its forces are not tools for the whim of an increasingly capricious US President.

Nato members, however, cannot afford for the Strait and Gulf to be closed this summer – and they could and should act. They will have to come to an arrangement with Iran to get traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Bab el-Mandeb. National leaders Friedrich Merz, Giorgina Meloni, Mark Carney, Mette Frederiksen, Pedro Sánchez and, yes, even stumbling Keir Starmer will have to work the passage to get the ships and pumping stations moving. It should progress towards a treaty arrangement – with or without Washington.

A satellite image shows ship movement at the Strait of Hormuz on Friday (Photo: EU/Copernicus Sentinel-2/Reuters)

Turkey, the powerful ally contiguous to the crisis region, will be critical. The process of stabilising the gulfs and the straits must be well on the way before the Nato summit at Ankara on 7 and 8 July – which could be make or break for the alliance as a whole.

There are two known unknowns in the conflict now – the mercurial, neo-messianic trajectory of Donald J Trump, and the Iranian people. Iranians have been bombed and shelled by Israeli and US forces. Many are destitute, even starving. Many oppose the regime – but the regime knows how to oppress. Executions and roundups of protesters continue, especially of those involved in the demonstrations sparked by the collapse of the currency in January. The IRGC has reinforced its Basij militia police with Hezbollah militias from Iraq, cohorts of Taliban bands from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Despite Trump’s exhortations, there is no sign of a popular uprising: the great populist himself hasn’t a clue how to cut through to the 91 million population of Iran.

Media commentators love to quote the saying of former US secretary of state Colin Powell, known as the Pottery Barn Rule. “You break it, you own it,” he warned George W Bush in 2002, as the then president was planning to invade Iraq.

That rule looks a big piece of broken pottery now. Trump may have smashed things in Iran and the Gulf, big time. But the seizing of the Touska is yet another episode in an increasingly messy crisis suggesting it is drifting well beyond his understanding, let alone control.

ballbouncebroken on April 20th, 2026 at 18:22 UTC »

This last month, if not year, of fighting feels like intentionally weakening our position with allies on the world stage as well as our position to defend on the home front. I am looking for someone more informed to contextualize how any of this strengthens the US as a global leader.

theipaper on April 20th, 2026 at 15:50 UTC »

When the destroyer USS Spruance blew a hole in the Iranian freighter MV Touska in the Arabian Sea on Sunday, it blew a great big hole in the magical thinking about war, peace, and the manifest political destiny of Donald J Trump in his second presidential term.

This was the first time US forces had fired on a civilian ship in the region since America and Israel went to war against Iran there on 28 February. The sporadic exchange of fire over the weekend means that the conflict goes on, to the damage of friend, foe and neutral alike – to say nothing of the crippling effect on the global economy for months to come.

It has given a huge psychological and political advantage to the Islamic Republic of Iran – one that the ayatollahs and their praetorian guard of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp) could barely have dreamed of before 28 February. They now control the destiny of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. They now hold the initiative in any negotiations about the waterway.

By blowing hot and cold about deal or no deal with the US, they create a virus of uncertainty. While this persists, most mercantile shipping will not be able to find a single underwriter worth the name on the international insurance market.

Trump posted a typically bombastic account of the strike on the Touska, which was followed by US Marines abseiling on to its decks from the assault ship USS Tripoli. “The Iranian crew refused to listen,” wrote Trump on Truth Social, “so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engine room”.

The freighter was now “in the custody” of the US Marines. Trump later added that peace talks would resume this week with Vice President JD Vance now heading to meet the Iranian delegation in Islamabad.

Tehran responded within minutes that there would be no meaningful talks in Pakistan. “We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy of the US military,” the IRGC spokesman said.

Trump is now faced with a resumption of war – and with very few allies to help. Israel is now involved in fighting on four fronts – Iran, Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon – five if you include the Houthis of Yemen now threatening the second major chokepoint of the region, the Bab el-Mandeb, a narrow strait at the neck of the Red Sea.

Both Israeli and US forces are facing shortages of key munitions and ordnance – sophisticated precision-guided missiles, such as the Tomahawk land attack missile from warships and submarines, and missiles for Patriot and Iron Dome air defence systems. Trump will have to go to Congress for war funding. His war effort is being costed at $200bn – and so far, only about $40bn has been offered.

Trump’s bid will come as the war grows increasingly unpopular in the US – with a hike of petrol and food prices on the way and inflation forecast to go beyond 4.5 per cent. There is also the question of the War Powers Resolution – revised during the Vietnam crisis in 1973. This holds that a president must go to Congress for authorisation and subvention after 40 days of hostilities. The decision to go to war has to be questioned in terms of whether the vital interests of the United States were under threat in the first place.

The Iranian regime is now an odd, cat’s cradle collection of clannist, military and clerical interest groups, as much apt to quarrel as to agree. However, the politicians and commanders seem to know how to play Trump brilliantly. Much of their arsenal has been destroyed, and the economy is in ruins. But they believe they have more than enough to back their strategy in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The surface fleet of the Iranian navy has been destroyed. But the amphibious commando forces of the Revolutionary Guard have about 70 per cent of their arsenal intact, including attack launches, and drones. They can launch a strike at a moment’s notice.

Despite the comprehensive surveillance by spy planes, drones and satellites, the Americans and Israelis don’t seem to know the location of many of the drones and missile launchers, which are well concealed in caves and underground bunkers. It is unlikely that the US Navy and Marines could keep the Strait of Hormuz open without committing huge forces. This would leave America vulnerable elsewhere – in Europe where it cannot escape entanglement over Ukraine, and the chokepoints of the East and South China Seas, ie Taiwan, and the Sea of Japan.

Trump repeats that he has been let down by Nato and Nato allies in not joining his six-week war on Iran. This is another piece of weird, magical thinking. The Gulf, Red Sea, Levant – the modern Middle East – are well outside the Nato defensive area, designated by treaty as stretching “from the Atlantic to the Urals”, as the old Cold War formula put it. Furthermore, Nato is an alliance based on democratic principles – it is underpinned by a deliberative body, the North Atlantic Council, empowered by the legislatures of member countries. Its forces are not tools for the whim of an increasingly capricious US President.

Nato members, however, cannot afford for the Strait and Gulf to be closed this summer – and they could and should act. They will have to come to an arrangement with Iran to get traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Bab el-Mandeb. National leaders Friedrich Merz, Giorgina Meloni, Mark Carney, Mette Frederiksen, Pedro Sánchez and, yes, even stumbling Keir Starmer will have to work the passage to get the ships and pumping stations moving. It should progress towards a treaty arrangement – with or without Washington.

Turkey, the powerful ally contiguous to the crisis region, will be critical. The process of stabilising the gulfs and the straits must be well on the way before the Nato summit at Ankara on 7 and 8 July – which could be make or break for the alliance as a whole.

There are two known unknowns in the conflict now – the mercurial, neo-messianic trajectory of Donald J Trump, and the Iranian people. Iranians have been bombed and shelled by Israeli and US forces. Many are destitute, even starving. Many oppose the regime – but the regime knows how to oppress. Executions and roundups of protesters continue, especially of those involved in the demonstrations sparked by the collapse of the currency in January. The IRGC has reinforced its Basij militia police with Hezbollah militias from Iraq, cohorts of Taliban bands from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Despite Trump’s exhortations, there is no sign of a popular uprising: the great populist himself hasn’t a clue how to cut through to the 91 million population of Iran.

Media commentators love to quote the saying of former US secretary of state Colin Powell, known as the Pottery Barn Rule. “You break it, you own it,” he warned George W Bush in 2002, as the then president was planning to invade Iraq.

That rule looks a big piece of broken pottery now. Trump may have smashed things in Iran and the Gulf, big time. But the seizing of the Touska is yet another episode in an increasingly messy crisis suggesting it is drifting well beyond his understanding, let alone control.