The Daily Populous Sunday April 12nd, 2026 night edition
Authored by edition.cnn.com and submitted by Naurgul

US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.

It would be a provocative move considering Beijing said it helped broker the fragile ceasefire agreement that paused the war between Iran and the US earlier this week. President Donald Trump is also set to visit China early next month for talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The intelligence also underscores how Iran may be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to replenish certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners.

Two of the sources told CNN there are indications that Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to mask their true origin.

The systems Beijing is preparing to transfer are shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs, the sources said, which posed an asymmetric threat to low-flying US military aircraft throughout the course of the five-week war and could again if the ceasefire falls apart.

Asked by CNN on Saturday about the US intelligence and whether he has spoken to Xi about the issue, Trump indicated that Beijing would face consequences if it sent weapons to Tehran.

“If China does that, China will have big problems, OK?” he said as he left the White House for Florida. Trump did not say whether he has spoken to Xi.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said, “China has never provided weapons to any party to the conflict; the information in question is untrue.”

“As a responsible major country, China consistently fulfills its international obligations. We urge the U.S. side to refrain from making baseless allegations, maliciously drawing connections, and engaging in sensationalism; we hope that relevant parties will do more to help de-escalate tensions.”

Earlier this week, an embassy spokesperson told CNN that since the US-Israel-Iran war began, Beijing had “been working to help bring about a ceasefire and end to the conflict.”

Trump indicated during a press conference on Monday that the F-15 fighter jet shot down over Iran last week was hit by a “handheld shoulder missile, [a] heat-seeking missile,” and Tehran said it had used a “new” air defense system to hit the jet without providing more details. It’s unclear whether that system was Chinese manufactured.

Shipping MANPADS to Iran would mark an escalation in China’s support for the country since the US and Israel launched their joint military campaign in February.

Chinese companies have continued to sell the Iranians sanctioned dual-use technology that enables Tehran to keep building weapons and enhance its navigation systems, sources said, but the Chinese government directly transferring weapons systems would mark a new level of assistance.

Trump is expected to meet with Xi next month in Beijing, and the White House said Wednesday that high-level talks had taken place between the US and China as Iran ceasefire negotiations played out earlier this week.

One of the sources familiar with the intelligence said China sees no real strategic value in overtly entering the conflict and trying to protect Iran against the US and Israel, which they know would be unwinnable. Instead, Beijing is trying to position itself as a continued friend to Iran — whose oil it heavily depends upon — while remaining outwardly neutral so it can maintain deniability after the war is over.

Sources said the Chinese could also make the argument that air defense systems are defensive rather than offensive in nature, differentiating their support from that of Russia. Moscow has been providing support to the Iranian regime throughout the course of the war in the form of intelligence sharing that has helped Iran proactively target US troops and assets in the Middle East, CNN has reported.

Iran has long had established military and economic relationships with both China and Russia. Iran has aided Russia extensively in its war on Ukraine through the provision of Shahed drones and also sells China the bulk of its sanctioned oil.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

Evered_Avenue on April 11st, 2026 at 13:50 UTC »

China have normal diplomatic relations with Iran. They have zero requirement to not continue to do business with them. And no, it doesn't give the USA, who let us not forget, along with Israel are guilty of a an illegal war of aggression, get to claim it's some sort of provocation.

SpiritualScene6249 on April 11st, 2026 at 12:14 UTC »

Are we surprised? This has been happening for centuries from all sides.

Naurgul on April 11st, 2026 at 11:46 UTC »

Submission statement:

US intelligence agencies have indicated China is planning to deliver shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs (air defence) to Iran in the coming weeks. The same intelligence reports explain that Iran might be using the ceasefire as a chance to replace key weapon systems that were damaged in the war.

See also about the ceasefire:

Iran’s speaker says negotiations with U.S. can’t start without Lebanon ceasefire, asset release (CNBC)

> Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, said the U.S. must fulfill two key conditions “before negotiations begin”: halting attacks by Israel in Lebanon, and releasing Iranian assets.

Iranian source says US has agreed to unfreeze Iranian funds, Washington denies it (Reuters)

> A senior Iranian source said on Saturday the U.S. had agreed to release Iranian frozen assets ​held in Qatar and other foreign banks, but a U.S. official swiftly denied the assertion. The senior Iranian ‌source welcomed the purported U.S. move as a sign of "seriousness" in reaching a deal with Washington in talks in Islamabad. The source said it was one of Iran's demands "in messages conveyed to the U.S. side" and that Tehran had received a ​U.S. agreement to release the assets.