The Daily Populous Tuesday March 31st, 2026 evening edition
Authored by inews.co.uk and submitted by theipaper

close Cancel email WhatsApp link share Share bookmark Save

More than 50,000 US troops are now stationed in the Middle East, as pressure is mounting for America to secure the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz to calm oil prices.

Flight log data and satellite images point to the US preparing for a show of force focused on Kharg Island – but experts warn that any operation carries a huge risk.

Donald Trump has suggested the US could seize the export hub, which is responsible for 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil exports. Earlier this month, US warplanes bombed more than 90 military targets on the site, including naval mine storage facilities, while avoiding striking the oil ​infrastructure.

New Feature In Short Quick Stories. Same trusted journalism.

Satellite imagery obtained by The i Paper showed five tankers were docked at the Iranian island on Sunday, 24 hours before the cost of oil rose sharply to hit $116 (£88) per barrel after Trump made his threat.

Separately, flight log data shows a surge in US aircraft flying into the Middle East in the past month, with around 450 flights made by C-17s so far in March compared to just 83 such flights in January. The military transport planes are designed for the rapid global transport of troops, vehicles and cargo.

Open-source data provides evidence of the latest US military movements towards the Middle East to bolster off-the-record briefings from officials that America is preparing for the next stage of its attack on Iran. It is unclear at this stage whether troop movements are intended to intimidate or to genuinely signal that we will see US boots on the ground.

The US President, Donald Trump, posts an update to his negotiations with Iran (Photo: Truth Social)

Some 2,500 US Marines, from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, and 2,500 sailors are joining US military assets in the region, the New York Times reports. They arrive on the trail of around 2,000 soldiers from the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division deployed last week, with The i Paper previously examining how this force comprises a “rapid-response” unit specialising in sea raids, as well as ground-force troops “capable of seizing airfields”.

While US officials briefed the New York Times that the US President is deciding how to launch a large attack, like a land grab, the number of troops alone does not give a guarantee that Trump is planning a ground incursion into Iran.

“A figure of around 50,000 US troops in the region sounds significant, but it may not translate directly into combat power available for a single operation,” Ruben Stewart, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, explained.

“Much of that number may reflect staff in headquarters, air and missile defence, aviation including ground staff, naval personnel and logistics rather than troops that would be used in an assault.”

The issues facing the US are not just whether they have the power to take Kharg Island and other strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has been attacking shipping, but also whether they can hold it.

Speculation about an attempt by the US to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, has grown in recent days. US C-17s have been increasingly active in the Middle East. (Photo: Toby Melville/Reuters)

“On Kharg Island specifically, the key issue is not whether a force could land, but what happens immediately afterwards. Even a relatively small force could physically seize parts of or maybe the whole island, but that force would need to be protected, sustained, and defended in a highly contested environment,” Stewart said.

He highlights that Iranian forces have the capacity to respond “very quickly with missiles, drones, fast attack vessels and other assets, meaning that even a short-duration operation could leave landing troops exposed almost immediately”.

Any mission would put US troops in the direct line of fire from Iran and potentially drag America into a bloody war of attrition.

But Trump is not just moving troops. Analysis of flight logs shows that around 790 trips made by US transport aircraft have flown from bases in Europe, the US and North Africa into bases across the Middle East since the start of January. This includes bases such as Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, Nevatim Air Force Base in Israel, Camp Victory in Baghdad and Tel Aviv in Israel.

The number has increased rapidly month-on-month, from 83 in January to 251 in February and to some 456 in March so far.

The US military is not just using its Air Force crafts, but also utilising those attached to the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve.

Any US ground force faces rapid and bloody Iranian retaliation

As Trump sets up his pieces on the chessboard ahead of whatever America’s next move might be, Iran has been fighting back.

One of America’s most prized aircraft, the E-3 Sentry, was shot down by Iran over Saudi Arabia. It is reported that the strike was carried out with ballistic missiles and drones, leaving 12 US personnel injured and up to five air-to-air refuelling tankers also damaged.

There are now only 15 E-3 Sentries after one was downed by Iran (Photo: The i Paper)

The E-3, a $500m (£375m) craft, is a complex and strategically vital tool, offering both surveillance and intelligence as well as serving as an aerial command centre. One of 16, its destruction is both a costly blow and also suggests Iran’s ability to strike with accuracy remains high.

Similarly, satellite imagery and marine-tracking software show Kharg Island is operating without fear of impunity.

Five tankers were identified at the site, with oil tanker analyst site TankerTrackers assessing that this equates to a “total of 7.73 million barrels”. The experts have been monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow body of water which Kharg Island sits north of. They report that only around two tankers are passing through each day and “half of those are carrying Iranian oil and refined products”.

Satellite imagery and marine-tracking software show Kharg Island is operating without fear of impunity (Photo: Starboard)

If Kharg is in Trump’s cross hairs, it will be a difficult asset to seize.

“Kharg’s importance, which handles the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports, is precisely what makes it so heavily defended and so sensitive,” Stewart said.

“A ‘smash and grab’ raid is more plausible than a sustained occupation, but even that would carry disproportionate risk, because the force would be vulnerable from the moment it lands and would require continuous protection and extraction under threat.”

Graymouzer on March 31st, 2026 at 12:40 UTC »

Is 50,000 troops enough to do anything? They can probably take Kharg Island but Iran could destroy it on the way out. That doesn't help the U.S. I can't see how they can safely take Iran's nuclear sites. They are all deep in Iran. They certainly cannot occupy much territory in Iran. What are those 50,000 troops supposed to do?

arstarsta on March 31st, 2026 at 08:49 UTC »

Where are the troops stationed exactly? There were news of US bases being uninhabitable because of the attacks.

theipaper on March 31st, 2026 at 08:22 UTC »

More than 50,000 US troops are now stationed in the Middle East, as pressure is mounting for America to secure the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz to calm oil prices.

Flight log data and satellite images point to the US preparing for a show of force focused on Kharg Island – but experts warn that any operation carries a huge risk.

Donald Trump has suggested the US could seize the export hub, which is responsible for 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil exports. Earlier this month, US warplanes bombed more than 90 military targets on the site, including naval mine storage facilities, while avoiding striking the oil ​infrastructure.

Satellite imagery obtained by The i Paper showed five tankers were docked at the Iranian island on Sunday, 24 hours before the cost of oil rose sharply to hit $116 (£88) per barrel after Trump made his threat.

Separately, flight log data shows a surge in US aircraft flying into the Middle East in the past month, with around 450 flights made by C-17s so far in March compared to just 83 such flights in January. The military transport planes are designed for the rapid global transport of troops, vehicles and cargo.

Open-source data provides evidence of the latest US military movements towards the Middle East to bolster off-the-record briefings from officials that America is preparing for the next stage of its attack on Iran. It is unclear at this stage whether troop movements are intended to intimidate or to genuinely signal that we will see US boots on the ground.

Some 2,500 US Marines, from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, and 2,500 sailors are joining US military assets in the region, the New York Times reports. They arrive on the trail of around 2,000 soldiers from the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division deployed last week, with The i Paper previously examining how this force comprises a “rapid-response” unit specialising in sea raids, as well as ground-force troops “capable of seizing airfields”.

While US officials briefed the New York Times that the US President is deciding how to launch a large attack, like a land grab, the number of troops alone does not give a guarantee that Trump is planning a ground incursion into Iran.

“A figure of around 50,000 US troops in the region sounds significant, but it may not translate directly into combat power available for a single operation,” Ruben Stewart, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, explained.

“Much of that number may reflect staff in headquarters, air and missile defence, aviation including ground staff, naval personnel and logistics rather than troops that would be used in an assault.”

The issues facing the US are not just whether they have the power to take Kharg Island and other strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has been attacking shipping, but also whether they can hold it.

“On Kharg Island specifically, the key issue is not whether a force could land, but what happens immediately afterwards. Even a relatively small force could physically seize parts of or maybe the whole island, but that force would need to be protected, sustained, and defended in a highly contested environment,” Stewart said.

He highlights that Iranian forces have the capacity to respond “very quickly with missiles, drones, fast attack vessels and other assets, meaning that even a short-duration operation could leave landing troops exposed almost immediately”.

Any mission would put US troops in the direct line of fire from Iran and potentially drag America into a bloody war of attrition.

But Trump is not just moving troops. Analysis of flight logs shows that around 790 trips made by US transport aircraft have flown from bases in Europe, the US and North Africa into bases across the Middle East since the start of January. This includes bases such as Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, Nevatim Air Force Base in Israel, Camp Victory in Baghdad and Tel Aviv in Israel.

The number has increased rapidly month-on-month, from 83 in January to 251 in February and to some 456 in March so far.

The US military is not just using its Air Force crafts, but also utilising those attached to the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve.

Any US ground force faces rapid and bloody Iranian retaliation

As Trump sets up his pieces on the chessboard ahead of whatever America’s next move might be, Iran has been fighting back.

One of America’s most prized aircraft, the E-3 Sentry, was shot down by Iran over Saudi Arabia. It is reported that the strike was carried out with ballistic missiles and drones, leaving 12 US personnel injured and up to five air-to-air refuelling tankers also damaged.

The E-3, a $500m (£375m) craft, is a complex and strategically vital tool, offering both surveillance and intelligence as well as serving as an aerial command centre. One of 16, its destruction is both a costly blow and also suggests Iran’s ability to strike with accuracy remains high.

Similarly, satellite imagery and marine-tracking software show Kharg Island is operating without fear of impunity.

Five tankers were identified at the site, with oil tanker analyst site TankerTrackers assessing that this equates to a “total of 7.73 million barrels”. The experts have been monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow body of water which Kharg Island sits north of. They report that only around two tankers are passing through each day and “half of those are carrying Iranian oil and refined products”.

If Kharg is in Trump’s cross hairs, it will be a difficult asset to seize.

“Kharg’s importance, which handles the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports, is precisely what makes it so heavily defended and so sensitive,” Stewart said.

“A ‘smash and grab’ raid is more plausible than a sustained occupation, but even that would carry disproportionate risk, because the force would be vulnerable from the moment it lands and would require continuous protection and extraction under threat.”