The Daily Populous Sunday March 15th, 2026 morning edition
Authored by ms.now and submitted by plz-let-me-in

DORAL, Fla. — House Republican leaders are publicly projecting confidence about their chances of holding the majority in the midterms. Privately, many of their members sound far less certain.

Gathered this week at a Trump-owned resort in Doral, Florida, to coordinate strategy for the rest of the legislative year and the looming campaign season, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., struck an upbeat tone, telling reporters, “Do not bet against the House Republicans” as they try to maintain their narrow edge in the chamber.

But beneath the public optimism, there is deep frustration — and, in some cases, outright pessimism — simmering inside Johnson’s conference.

“No one thinks we’re keeping the majority except for the speaker,” one House Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss the internal sentiment, told MS NOW.

The lawmaker suggested Johnson’s confidence was less a reflection of the mood inside the conference and more about the impossible position he’s in.

“What’s he going to go out there and say? ‘We’re going to lose the majority’? He can’t do that,” the House Republican said. “Money would dry up.”

The candid assessment comes as Congress barrels toward the November midterm elections that Republicans see as make or break: Retain the majority and continue to provide President Donald Trump with a legislative partner, or hand the gavel to Democrats, many of whom are clamoring to launch impeachment proceedings against the president.

Much of the current frustrations are centered on the party’s accomplishments — or lack thereof.

Since muscling through the reconciliation bill last summer, House Republicans have struggled to find an agenda that can become law. And as lawmakers prepare to hit the campaign trail in what has historically been an unkind political environment for the party in power, they’re grappling with a basic question: What, exactly, can they run on?

“In order to keep the majority, you have to have an agenda,” the House Republican said. “What are we working on?”

Not everyone has given up. Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., told MS NOW that Republicans could hold onto the House if they just “get our heads out of our collective rears.”

He called on the House GOP to start passing bills — both real ones that could become law and messaging bills — and to move them “without having to allow the staff to water them down.”

“Because America wants it,” Burchett said.

‘They see Congress as a bunch of do-nothing, kind of idiots’

Those sentiments came into clear view on March 1, when House Republicans convened for a member-only call that was meant to focus on the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran — which began one day earlier — but quickly devolved into an airing of grievances over the party’s lack of accomplishments and struggles surrounding the passage of the SAVE America Act, which would require voter ID to cast a ballot and proof of citizenship to register to vote.

During the conversation, Rep. Brandon Gill of Texas, president of the House GOP conference’s freshman class, spoke up and said voters “have to have something to vote for, not just against,” according to a source on the call. Voters, he argued, don’t think Congress has given them enough to root for.

“The problem that we have now is that a lot of our voters support what the president’s doing, but they see Congress as a bunch of do-nothing, kind of idiots, candidly,” he said, per the source on the call.

Johnson pushed back, calling the notion of a “do-nothing” Congress “patently absurd,” and pointed to the conference’s passage of the reconciliation bill last year, according to a source on the call. While Republicans did approve the sprawling legislation, they’ve since had difficulty selling it on the campaign trail in a way that resonates with voters.

Reached by MS NOW, Gill said he wouldn’t comment on a private conversation but stood by his broader critique, with a particular focus on the SAVE America Act.

“By refusing to pass the SAVE America Act, the Senate is setting us up to get slaughtered in the midterms,” he said.

On the call, Rep. Keith Self, R-Texas, spoke next and sided with his fellow Texas Republican — “defense doesn’t win, offense wins” — before tearing into Congress.

“I think we have a beaten-wife syndrome here,” Self said, according to a source on the call. “I think we ought to stop saying we’ve got unified government because we might have an R behind our names, but I’m not sure we’ve got unified government. The people don’t feel it. We talk about them feeling the economy all the time, but they’re not feeling it with Congress. They’re just not.”

Self did not respond to MS NOW’s request for comment.

The frustrations are focused largely on the fate of the SAVE America Act, which Trump has labeled his top legislative priority heading into the midterms. The House approved the legislation in February but it has stalled in the Senate, where Republicans have been unable to pierce the 60-vote threshold needed to break the filibuster.

Trump has aggressively lobbied Congress to pass the bill, framing it as about “national survival,” warning that he won’t sign other pieces of legislation until it is passed and declaring that the GOP’s midterm chances hinge on that measure.

“We don’t have a country if we’re going to have elections that are so corrupt and so dishonest like we’ve witnessed over the last period of time,” Trump told lawmakers at the Doral retreat.

“It’ll guarantee the midterms,” he said of the bill during a press conference minutes later. “If you don’t get it, big trouble.”

But Johnson himself has warned against that kind of rhetoric. On the call, he cautioned that if lawmakers say the SAVE America Act is “existential to the survival” of the U.S., “it might become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” according to a source on the call. If Republicans are unable to send Trump the SAVE America Act, he continued, conservative voters may skip the polls entirely because they think, “What’s the point? We’re going to lose anyway.”

“It’s a delicate balance,” Johnson said of the messaging, according to a source on the call.

On paper, Republicans’ position looks more manageable than the internal mood suggests.

The National Republican Congressional Committee outraised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2025, $117.2 million to $115 million, and Trump gave $1 million to the House GOP campaign arm during his speech in Doral. Republicans are also faring positively in the redistricting war: As things currently stand, the GOP is on track to gain two to three seats from redrawn maps, according to The New York Times. And after trailing Democrats by several points on the generic congressional ballot, Republicans have pulled even in some recent surveys.

But the political headwinds are building.

As the war in Iran drags on with no ending in sight, gas prices are climbing sharply. According to AAA, the national average gas price is $3.60 a gallon, up more than 60 cents from a month prior. Recommended ‘They can’t lose a single vote’: Republicans say a razor-thin majority has made them ‘untouchable’ Mychael Schnell News Maddowblog The more the House Republican majority shrinks, the more nervous GOP leaders should be Steve Benen At the retreat, Johnson called the spike a “temporary blip.” And House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain of Michigan described the prices as “a snapshot in time.”

But some rank-and-file members are less sanguine. “That’s an issue,” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., told MS NOW at the retreat. “I think this is very temporary. Obviously, this is all because of the Strait of Hormuz, but, the president has said it, the goal is not, this is not going to be a forever war. The goal is to deal with this really dangerous terrorist regime in Iran and hopefully that can be done as soon as possible, as quickly as possible.” Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, predicted that the White House is likely “most concerned about rising gas prices,” but suggested that the prices were likely “a short-term problem.” Then there is the weight of history. The president’s party has lost House seats in the first midterm election in nearly every modern presidency. Johnson thinks he can beat that trend. “Defying history to win the majority is not a simple task, but it is one that we will do,” he told reporters at the retreat. Some colleagues are less convinced. “We’re being a little bit rosy here,” a House Republican who requested anonymity to discuss the outlook, told MS NOW. Another House Republican, who represents a swing district, dinged leadership’s overall control of the conference’s midterm strategy, questioning its understanding of the congressional map and how to run in tough races. “Johnson doesn’t live in a swing district, has never represented a swing district and doesn’t know what it’s like to manage a swing district,” the lawmaker told MS NOW. “Any member in a tough district should never be looking to leadership to save them from the race, because leadership doesn’t know how to run races, because they’re all in R+30 or D+30 districts.” “They don’t have races,” the lawmaker said. “They don’t run competitive districts.” ‘It will not be as big, but it can be just as beautiful’ Even as Republican lawmakers clamor for more to run on, they can’t agree what to do next. That debate has crystalized into one question: Should the party attempt a second budget reconciliation package? Johnson has been teasing another effort for months, and during a fireside chat at the retreat, announced that he’s working on a Venn diagram to identify areas in which the conference can find unity.

Other GOP lawmakers, including ones instrumental to the process, are highly skeptical. “I would absolutely love a second reconciliation bill. I would love that, but I just don’t think it will ever happen,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., who played a key role in the first bill’s passage, said at the retreat. In response to the internal criticisms, Johnson said he’s “more optimistic” than Smith. “Let’s be realistic about it: It will not be as big, but it can be just as beautiful,” Johnson told reporters.”Reconciliation 2.0 can be just as beautiful.” Still, what would make it into the package remains a key question, especially as Trump and House GOP leadership seem to be singing from different songsheets. During the House GOP retreat, Trump needled Democrats for using the word “affordability,” said the opposing party doesn’t talk about the issue anymore “because we brought down prices so much,” and said voters only talk about the SAVE America Act and nothing else: “They don’t talk about housing, they don’t talk about anything.” In remarks to reporters the next day, Johnson said the cost of living would be the main focus for the conference moving forward. “Our number-one objective for the remainder of the year — top priority — is to continue to work with President Trump and the administration to reduce the cost of living for hard-working families,” Johnson said. Asked about the apparent contradiction, McClain told MS NOW the party can deal with all issues at the same time. “I don’t think it’s an or; I think it’s an and,” she said. “If you look at economic issues, that is really what is important to a lot of Americans. It’s pocketbook issues, right? So it’s ‘and’ and not an ‘or,’ is how I would frame it.” Mychael Schnell Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW. Syedah Asghar Syedah Asghar covers Congress for MSNBC.

Julian_Thorne on March 14th, 2026 at 20:52 UTC »

I guess there isn't a 'don't worry we're gonna steal the election' memo circulating.

B-Z_B-S on March 14th, 2026 at 20:52 UTC »

Even Senate Republicans might lose their majority. And it would be significantly harder for the Democratic Party to take the Senate than the House. The Republicans will lose the House.

PenAndInkAndComics on March 14th, 2026 at 20:51 UTC »

Don't get complacent. Strive to overwhelm republicans, everywhere