The surprising winner from Trump's military adventurism

Chinese analysts used to say 'Iraq bought us a decade' - the US President's moves could offer it something just as valuable

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In the 2010s, as the US and China squared off on the global stage, I regularly heard a simple sentiment from Chinese analysts: “Iraq bought us a decade.” Now, Donald Trump’s new aggression towards America’s allies may buy China even more time and strategic space than the blunders of the “War on Terror” ever did.

Chinese experts saw the Iraq War as a gift because it drew US attention away from China’s rapidly growing economic and military strength. Before the 9/11 attacks, the Bush administration saw China as its principal foe, especially after a Chinese fighter rammed a US spy plane over the Chinese island of Hainan.

But as the “War on Terror” began, countering China’s ambitions rapidly slid down the priority list. Washington was even happy to accept Beijing’s labeling of certain militant organisations of Uyghurs, China’s Muslim minority, as terrorists, which has had long and damaging repercussions.

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In recent years, US strategy has returned to focusing on an increasingly powerful China – a rare point of continuity between the Trump and Biden administrations.

US officials have spent considerable time and resources trying to find ways to constrain China’s technological and economic ambitions. Trump’s first year back in office suggested that the US would continue that strategy, with a vicious trade war aimed heavily at China threatening to obliterate the global economy.

Trump ultimately backed down in November, praising China’s President Xi Jinping and reversing the ban on exporting powerful processing chips to China. He then turned his eye to softer targets like Venezuela and Greenland.

This swing by Trump gives China plenty of breathing room, which it badly needs.

The Chinese economy is still stumbling under the weight of a Covid-induced slowdown, an ageing population, and a years-long real estate crisis. The Chinese military, meanwhile, has gone through multiple rounds of political purges and corruption scandals.

A distracted US means a chance for China to take stock and accumulate power – or as 1990s Chinese leader, Jiang Zemin, famously put it: to “hide our strength and bide our time”.

China’s economy, long a global growth engine, has struggled in recent years (Photo: Jade Gao/AFP)

It’s not just the distraction that benefits Beijing. China’s leadership is equally happy to see the bulldozing of US alliances. The US’s friendships with other states, particularly East Asian allies like South Korea and Japan, is a huge American advantage in any contest with China. In sharp contrast to the web of US alliances that covers the globe, China has just one formal treaty ally: North Korea.

In the past, Washington has leaned hard on the goodwill of allies to try to frustrate China’s ambitions. Under US pressure, Canada and the EU have heavily tariffed Chinese electric vehicles; the Netherlands and Japan bowed to US requests to limit the export of key chipmaking technology; and US dominance of the global financial system, aided by co-operation from European banks, has scared many Chinese firms away from doing business with Russia.

But as Trump reposted claims last week that Nato was a bigger threat than Russia or China, Chinese media gloated. Ongoing tensions around Trump’s desire to control Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, have also given it cause to celebrate.

Trust within Western alliances, already stretched to breaking point, is snapping. Part of that is the sheer ingratitude of Trump’s America. Nato countries, from Canada to the UK to Denmark, lost hundreds of soldiers fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, only to see the US President claim recently that he didn’t know if allies would come to the US’s aid if needed.

When Canada detained the chief financial officer of China’s tech giant Huawei on US charges that she broke sanctions with Iraq, two Canadians were held hostage by China for three years, until the US eventually agreed to drop the extradition request. Trump’s response has been to threaten Canada with an invasion and trade war.

China has been flexing its military muscles, conducting live-fire drills in the waters around Taiwan (Photo: Adek Berry/AFP)

It’s no wonder that Canada has struck a fresh trade deal with China this year, or that the EU has put negotiations for a “comprehensive agreement on investment” with Beijing – suspended in 2020 – back on track.

While the rifts with the US’s long-term Asian allies have been less visible, Trump’s ingratitude is proving equally painful.

Japan has been locked in a spiralling quarrel with China for weeks over comments that Tokyo could come to Taiwan’s aid if Beijing attacked it. Washington’s response has been public silence, while Trump has reportedly attempted to pressure Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, on behalf of China.

Trump also downplayed Chinese military drills around Taiwan last month, which came weeks after the self-governing island bought $1.1bn of US weapons. He described the intense drills, which included 10 hours of live-firing exercises in locations near the island, as nothing to worry about, adding that he has a “great relationship” with the Chinese leader.

Trump’s newfound appeasement of China may last only as long as he needs the publicity of a big summit with Xi. But even if he swings back to hostility towards Beijing, it will be just one among many US flashpoints around the world.

For China, it doesn’t matter if Trump’s animosity is focused on Greenland, Venezuela, ungrateful Europeans or treacherous Democrats – as long as the world has to worry about the next big event in the Trump show, China has all the time it needs.

The Iraq War may have bought it a decade; Trump could ultimately buy it far longer.