The Daily Populous Tuesday December 30th, 2025 night edition
Authored by iranintl.com and submitted by NotSoSaneExile

The IRGC Aerospace Force is working on the unconventional warheads for ballistic missiles as it transfers missile launchers to eastern regions of Iran, the sources said.

The sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said these activities have accelerated in recent months and are being pursued amid rising regional tensions and Tehran’s concerns about the possibility of another direct confrontation with Israel and the United States.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Florida to meet the US president on Monday, when he plans to brief Donald Trump on options for potential future strikes against Iran, amid concerns that Tehran is rebuilding ballistic missile production facilities and repairing air defenses damaged during a brief war in June.

Iran International’s sources say these programs are largely carried out under the supervision of the IRGC Aerospace Force and include optimizing ballistic missiles to carry chemical and biological agents, as well as upgrading the associated command-and-control systems.

The Revolutionary Guard, anticipating scenarios of large-scale conflict, is building capabilities that, in the view of the Islamic Republic’s decision-makers, would serve as a “complementary deterrent factor” alongside Iran’s conventional missile program, one source said.

The pursuit of chemical and biological warheads comes six months after Iran’s foreign minister described his country as “the largest victim of chemical weapons in modern history,” citing Saddam Hussein’s chemical attack on Sardasht in western Iran, which, according to OPCW documentation, killed more than 100 people in a large-scale mustard gas assault.

Asked about the contradiction, one source told Iran International, “The Iranian leadership views potential Israeli and American attacks as a threat to its very existence and intends, in the event of a conflict, to significantly raise the cost for the opposing side.”

There is a perception at the highest decision-making levels of the Islamic Republic that “the use of unconventional weapons can be justified in situations of existential threat," the source added.

Last week, Iran International reported that Western intelligence agencies had identified “unusual” activities by the IRGC Aerospace Force and had increased monitoring and surveillance of these movements.

RamblingSimian on December 29th, 2025 at 21:32 UTC »

Biological weapons? I'm skeptical; here's why.

First, I don't see the point of delivering a biological weapon using a missile. For one reason, if, for example, such a missile was shot down at high enough altitude (by Iron Dome or David's Sling), the infectious plume could easily spread beyond Israel's borders. That's assuming the payload was an advanced design that wouldn't be sterilized or compromised by the heat from the interceptor explosion. Gaza is only 44 miles from Tel Aviv.

It would be cheaper and easier to skip missiles, smuggle the agent into the country, and release it near some ventilation shafts. That seems more in keeping with the ability of Iranian agents such as Hezbollah.

Second, note that these weapons could operate in two different modes: 1. Delivering an infectious disease - for example, smallpox, pneumonic plague or other deadly diseases. 2. Delivering a non-infectious disease that is spread airborne over a wide area, such as anthrax

Assuming the weapon delivered an infectious disease and created an epidemic, I doubt it would stop at Israel's borders. It very likely would make its way back to Iran. It would kill plenty of Muslims in neighboring countries as well. That kind of weapon would only be useful if the Mullahs first vaccinated their own population against whatever disease they intend to deliver.

Note that it is also theoretically possible to design a virus that only affects certain populations, based on genetics. However, I suspect Iran's ability to develop such sophisticated and biological weaponry is rather primitive. I doubt their ability to design a sophisticated virus that only attacks Jews, and I also doubt they could protect themselves from a weaponized, broadly infectious disease.

Moving on to the 2nd option, assuming the missile delivered a non-infectious disease, there is a lot of difficulty making sure the disease is spread airborne. Trying to spread it via an explosion would generate high temperatures that would likely destroy most of the biological agent. Again, I doubt Iran's technical ability to deal with the technical issues.

So, if Iran is actually considering missiles to deliver biological weapons, they might be fooling themselves about the likely result. But it also seems possible they aren't considering missiles at all for biological weapons.

ArugulaElectronic478 on December 29th, 2025 at 15:46 UTC »

Is this going to be an annual whack-a-mole where once a year western backed forces go in and bomb Iran’s ICBM/Nuclear facilities?

Kalshi is gonna love this one.

NotSoSaneExile on December 29th, 2025 at 07:37 UTC »

Iran International reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guard is developing chemical and biological warheads for long-range ballistic missiles, with activity accelerating amid fears of a possible confrontation with Israel and the United States.

The program is reportedly overseen by the IRGC Aerospace Force and framed by Iranian leaders as a "Deterrent" in an existential conflict scenario, while Western intelligence agencies are said to be monitoring unusual IRGC movements.

Such weapons would drastically shift regional deterrence and trigger severe international backlash, even as Tehran denies pursuing unconventional arms. However, independent bodies such as the IAEA have already documented Iran enriching uranium far beyond what legitimate civilian use requires, reinforcing the concern that Tehran is actively seeking unconventional weapons.