The Daily Populous Saturday December 6th, 2025 night edition
Authored by cepa.org and submitted by CEPAORG

What might Europe look like if the fighting finally ends in Ukraine? Would we return to a pre-2022 continent of mutual suspicion but broad economic ties to Russia? Or something very different and even more concerning?

That, of course, depends on the exact terms agreed by the warring parties and their various backers. But any deal favorable to Vladimir Putin, a deal in which Ukraine effectively loses its sovereignty, would also be warmly welcomed by China as an endorsement of its efforts to tilt the outcome.

China has gambled on Putin and would expect to collect its winnings. And given the now-extraordinary mismatch in power between the two countries — China’s national wealth is more than eight times greater than Russia’s — Putin’s diminished and dependent country would have little choice but to agree.

What would China demand as a reward?

We can discern the outlines from Chinese behavior. Despite a long litany of denials, it has not only aided the Russian military campaign, but it has also tried to reap battlefield knowledge.

Russia’s enormous efforts to build a drone industry were possible in considerable measure because of Chinese (and Iranian) help, including the deployment of Chinese engineers at Russian factories. Chinese officers have also toured the frontline to understand drone combat. If Ukraine’s fractured but highly innovative drone industry fell into Russian hands, the Chinese would expect to benefit.

And that would only be part of a broader exploitation of Ukraine’s security assets: defense innovation that has made Ukraine a case study for many Western governments and companies, and Western weapons systems deployed by Ukraine that would fall into Chinese-Russian hands. This, by the way, is what happened when Nazi Germany was handed Czechoslovakia along with its extremely advanced arms industry — many of the tanks that invaded France were Czech.

Russia would, of course, itself benefit from a Ukrainian tech transfer flowing directly to Moscow, and would become a far more formidable military power as it adopts Ukrainian and Western capabilities. But China, with its advanced manufacturing base and speed of adaptation, would be the ultimate winner. Which, of course, is a serious concern for the US military that may one day have to fight them.

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There are geopolitical wins too from Ukrainian defeat or dismemberment.

European NATO has, for some years, been pivoting toward Asia-Pacific by sending aircraft carrier task groups and signing basing agreements with regional powers that clearly understand the threat China poses. But with a resurgent Russia menacing its borders, there are reasons to doubt its sustainability or utility. One critic called the policy “borderline reckless,” given the paucity of European military capabilities and the Russian threat.

So China could reasonably hope that the presence of Russia’s victorious legions along NATO’s extended eastern flank would persuade Europe to stay well away from Asia.

It might have no choice. Despite evidence that Russia has been badly mauled in Ukraine, its revitalized arms industry is producing large amounts of equipment, and it will find the manpower to garrison a new western border with NATO.

For example, there are questions about the fate of Ukraine’s bloodied but combat-tested armed forces. Amounting to around 900,000 personnel, some might leave for Western Europe. But for the remainder, the Kremlin could be expected to induce or intimidate some into serving for Russia. This is not a theoretical prospect; Moscow has already forcibly conscripted tens of thousands of Ukrainians in the occupied territories.

There would be much for China to exploit in this new world. After all, it would present some relatively easy wins. Like Russia, China loses when the West is united and clear on its aims. Like Russia, China works to exploit European divisions.

It would therefore present itself as an honest broker between Europe and the Kremlin, and offer what Xi Jinping likes to call “win-win deals”, which are in fact one-sided in Beijing’s favor and that damage continental security (remember Italy’s Belt and Road participation, which it extracted itself from in 2023).

The broader aim would be to peel Europe away from the United States and so strip Washington of old allies, leaving a debilitated and neutered alliance.

Dr. Alina Polyakova is President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) as well as the Donald Marron Senior Fellow at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

Christopher Walker is Vice President at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.

prodigals_anthem on December 6th, 2025 at 00:07 UTC »

Do nothing - win

Cheerful_Champion on December 5th, 2025 at 17:57 UTC »

China is the real winner of Trump being reelected. In less than 1 year Trump managed to lose trust European and Asian allies had towards US, lose trading war with China and agree to multiple concessions as a result, turn their back on Taiwan to placate China. People often throw around that Trump made America weakest it ever was, at first glance it might look like exaggeration, but it's true.

When it comes to China alone, USA:

lost half of soybeans exports to China

had to back out of impossing port fees on Chinese ships

delayed arms exports to Taiwan to avoid angering China

prohibited Taiwanese president from visiting USA to avoid angering China

had to relax controls on technology exports to China

had to agree to not impose any new export controls

backed out of sanctioning Chinese spy agency

forbidden US agencies to perform any actions against (even retaliatory) Chinese agencies, despite said Chinese agencies recently executing one of the largest cyber attacks against USA

announced they will organize meeting with China to determine if Nvidia may resume exporting most advanced AI chips to China

We are not even 1 full year into Trump's 2nd term and USA already gets bossed around by China while licking Russia's boots.

CEPAORG on December 5th, 2025 at 17:30 UTC »

Submission Statement: Alina Polyakova and Christopher Walker assess China’s significant ambitions regarding Ukraine. Should conditions favor Moscow and disfavor Kyiv, Beijing would no doubt intensify its broader aim “to peel Europe away from the United States and so strip Washington of old allies, leaving a debilitated and neutered alliance”