The Daily Populous Thursday August 7th, 2025 evening edition
Authored by economist.com and submitted by Aralknight

W HEN WESTERN countries began boycotting Russian oil in 2022, India saw an opportunity. Some 2.6m barrels a day (b/d) of crude once destined for Europe were available—at a sweet discount. India, which bought next to no oil from Russia in 2021, pounced. It has remained one of Russia’s biggest customers ever since. Today it imports nearly 2m b/d of Russian “sour”, heavy crude, representing 35-40% of its crude imports. This reduces India’s import bill at a time when the world’s fastest-growing big economy burns ever more petroleum. Local refiners make a killing by processing the stuff into fuels that they then export at full cost.

shankisaiyan on August 7th, 2025 at 15:01 UTC »

Maybe Indian exporters could absorb some tariffs. But I doubt we'd have 50% margins. Might as well make it 100%. Have little to lose now.

There was never a chance in hell we'd stop buying from Russia. But I think now we should increase it from the current 30% to higher since its significantly cheaper. Reduce the US' share to nil. Stop exporting to the EU if they had a role to play in this.

Cannot budge an inch on this. Need to reciprocate. Trump was right initially as he tried to reduce tariffs through deals.

But with Pak and now Russia, he's challenging the foundations of India's autonomy. A matter India does not negotiate on.

Top-Flatworm8201 on August 7th, 2025 at 10:16 UTC »

THIS is the core dilemma of US foreign policy.. US cannot simultaneously confront both China and Russia at the same time.

We know this for a fact that US joint forces cannot fight more than 1 war at anything nearing simultaneity. The 2018 NDS under Bridge Colby shifted it to 1 war force construct and the Biden admin reaffirmed it under 2022 National Defence Strategy.

So ironically, it is the US that must 'CHOOSE' whether it wants to prioritise the China threat or the Russia threat.

Its not all or nothing, but it's about prioritization and making the necessary tradeoffs for an effective grand strategy.

Dean_46 on August 7th, 2025 at 10:03 UTC »

Exactly. The reason India started sourcing from Russia in the first place was because Iran was sanctioned in Trump 1.0 (though it was JPCOA compliant at the time). That was followed by sanctioning Venezuela. All that it resulted in was lowering China's oil purchase prices, since China buys US sanctioned oil.

India's position has been that it will switch from Russian oil if there is an alternative. India has purchased oil from the US (and 39 other sources) but cannot make up for Russia volumes. Russian knows that. Hence, India buys Russian oil at only marginal discount to prevailing prices. If India is forced to not buy, the price China pays will be a lot lower.

Turkiye will play both sides, buying Russia's oil and gas and reselling it. But they are NATO members and presumably sanctions proof.