Trump is the only one who can stop Netanyahu - this is why he won't

Israeli media are reporting that Benjamin Netanyahu has decided on full occupation of Gaza

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SEATTLE – Several things about the war in Gaza became clear this week in a major intervention by hundreds of retired Israeli security officials.

On Monday, 600 former senior Israeli officials wrote an open letter to Donald Trump asking him to pressure the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to end the war in Gaza.

We learnt firstly that those individuals – including a former prime minister, three former heads of the internal security agency, and a trio of former military chiefs of staff – believe that Hamas no longer represents a “strategic threat” to their country.

“It is our professional judgement that Hamas no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel,” the former officials wrote in an open letter shared with the media.

They added: “At first this war was a just war, a defensive war, but when we achieved all military objectives, this war ceased to be a just war.”

Another is they believe that only Trump has the influence to step in and help “steer” Netanyahu to a peaceful resolution to the war in Gaza that has killed more than 60,000 Palestinians.

Protesters near the Trump Hotel in New York (Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty)

One of the signatories, Ami Ayalon, a former director of the Shin Bet security service, said in a video that the war, now entering its 23rd month, “is leading the state of Israel to lose its security and identity”.

The letter was also signed by former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who has previously described what is happening in Gaza as “war crimes”.

Israel “has long accomplished the two objectives that could be achieved by force – dismantling Hamas’s military formations and governance.

“The third, and most important, can only be achieved through a deal: bringing all the hostages home,” it said. “Chasing remaining senior Hamas operatives can be done later.”

Now the question is: will Trump do as they ask?

Global leaders have ramped up pressure to reach a deal as Gaza faces starvation and footage of two emaciated Israeli hostages circulated online, with a Hamas video showing a hostage digging what he said was his own grave.

In recent weeks, aid agencies have warned of deadly malnutrition and approaching famine in the Strip, and every day the media – though not so much in Israel – publishes images of skeletal and starving children.

Last week Netanyahu introduced daily limited pauses in fighting in certain areas of Gaza to facilitate aid delivery to civilians, although humanitarian agencies point out that nowhere near enough assistance is getting through.

The US has always been Israel’s biggest supporter, politically and militarily. In the aftermath of the 7 October, 2023, attack by Hamas, the US was among the very first countries to declare solidarity with Israel. It has sent billions of dollars in aid and weapons and provided largely uncritical support for Netanyahu as he continues to attack Gaza, where Hamas still holds 50 hostages, 20 of whom are thought to be alive.

Netanyahu hands Trump a letter informing the President he had nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, in the White House last month (Photo: Alex Brandon/AP)

Trump, who just before his inauguration back in January negotiated a temporary ceasefire jointly with the Biden administration, is known to have his eyes set firmly on the Nobel Peace Prize, and ending the decades-long Israel-Palestine conflict would certainly be momentous enough to secure it.

However, that January ceasefire deal ended after two months, and since then there has been little sign of Israel and Hamas being close to reaching a deal on either another ceasefire or ending the war completely.

And since then, Trump has shown little inclination to utilise America’s leverage to push it to end the war, and has on occasions said the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) “have to finish the job”.

He has even suggested relocating Palestinians from Gaza to other countries in the region, something that has delighted far-right members of the Netanyahu government, who are calling for the re-establishment of Israeli settlements in Gaza.

A more powerful Israel with greater influence in the Middle East would also provide a counterbalance to Iran in the region – diminishing Tehran is a key priority of Trump’s.

Recently, the US criticised the UK, France and Canada for declaring they intended to recognise the state of Palestine later this year.

But Trump’s approach to Gaza, as with many issues, has been inconsistent.

And there may be movement behind the scenes as outrage grows over conditions in Gaza. Even Trump said during his visit to Scotland last month “that’s real starvation stuff” – in a break with Netanyahu, who has continued to deny there is a crisis in Gaza.

Last week Trump dispatched envoy Steve Witkoff to Gaza in a high-level visit to witness controversial aid distribution locations backed by Israel and the US.

At the weekend, Witkoff told a meeting with the families of hostages seized by Hamas that Washington was backing a comprehensive end to the war.

“No piecemeal deals. That doesn’t work,” the US Middle East envoy reportedly told hostage families in an audio leaked to Israeli news outlet Ynet. “We think that we have to shift this negotiation to ‘all or nothing’ – everybody comes home,” Witkoff was quoted as saying.

However, reports of a possible deal came before media in Israel reported on Monday that Netanyahu was considering expanding his military operation for a potential “full conquest” of Gaza.

He is expected to call a meeting of his security cabinet this week to ask it to back his plan.

Ynet quoted officials close to the prime minister as saying: “The die is cast – we’re going for full conquest. If the chief of staff doesn’t agree – he should resign.”

In Israel there are weekly protests calling for Netanyahu to agree to a permanent peace deal that can allow the return of the hostages still held by Hamas.

Critics say he is only continuing the military operation in order to escape a corruption trial in which he is charged with fraud, bribery, and a breach of trust. He denies all the charges.

In the meantime, his government continues to be held together by hardline factions, some of which want to continue the war. The country’s national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, is among those who have called on Israel to “fully occupy” the entire Gaza Strip.

Trump has been curiously quiet since the security officials published their letter. Neither the White House or the State Department immediately responded to inquiries from The i Paper.

One thing we know about the 79-year-old President is that his actions are transparently transactional; he does something only if he thinks it is to his benefit.

Who knows how the judges of the Norway-based Nobel Prize go about making their decision on selecting a winner.

But if Trump were to think that bringing about an end to the horrors in Gaza were to earn him the prize, then he might just act.

And if he can persuade Netanyahu to halt the death and destruction, and prevent the reported possible “full conquest” of the Strip, then he might very well deserve that sought-after accolade.

However, if the offensive goes ahead, and full occupation of Gaza is the result, Trump will have failed utterly.