China may ask Russia to attack NATO if Taiwan is invaded, Rutte says

If China attacks Taiwan, Beijing may ask Moscow to open a second front against NATO states, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in an interview with The New York Times (NYT) published on July 5.

Fears of escalating Chinese military intervention in Taiwan have risen sharply since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war has served as a possible model of how both Taipei and the international community might respond if Beijing decides to invade.

"There's an increasing realization, and let's not be naive about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, 'Hey, I'm going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,'" Rutte said.

"That is most likely the way this will progress. And to deter them, we need to do two things. One is that NATO, collectively, being so strong that the Russians will never do this. And second, working together with the Indo-Pacific — something President (Donald) Trump is very much promoting," Rutte added.

Western officials and analysts point to Russia's surging military expenditures amid its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In 2024, Russia's defense budget reportedly rose 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined spending of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NATO allies have cited Russia's military buildup, sabotage campaigns, and continued aggression against Ukraine as reasons to accelerate defense investments.

Rutte previously warned that Russia could rebuild its military capacity to threaten NATO territory within five years, urging members to act with urgency.