Ukraine’s spectacular drone strikes rattled Trump and Putin - what happens now

Ukraine may have been underestimated before its elaborate attacks on Russian bombers dented Moscow's military capabilities - but will it substantially shift the balance of the war?

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Ukraine’s bold attacks targeting key assets in Moscow’s war effort have struck a nerve with Russia – which launched another deadly missile and drone attack overnight.

Bombs hit Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, killing four people and wounding 20, authorities said. But Ukraine fired back – hitting a Russian fuel depot situated near to a strategic bomber airbase.

In pictures across social media, the Engels oil refinery, based in the Saratov Oblast in the west of the country was engulfed in flames.

It comes after Kyiv carried out a large underwater explosion aimed at the crucial road and rail bridge linking the Russian-held Crimean peninsula to mainland Russia on Tuesday, causing damage to its underwater foundations.

This followed the audacious “Operation Spider’s Web” drone attacks on Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet over the weekend that saw a number of Vladimir Putin’s aircraft wiped out. Ukraine claims that it targeted 41 strategic bombers in the operation, adding that “at least” 13 were destroyed. Security officials say the shock incursion took 18 months to plan and saw many drones smuggled into Russia.

Videos of the explosions that flooded social media were striking and Kyiv’s degrading of Russia’s war machine sends a message that is hard to overlook. But experts still aren’t convinced the attacks will shift the balance of the war in a substantial way.

“There’s always been this sort of underestimation of the Ukrainians. And each time the Ukrainians do this, it makes the Russians sit up and think again,” said John Foreman, associate fellow at Chatham House and former UK defence attaché to Moscow and Kyiv.

Ukraine’s SBU said drones hit ‘more than 40’ aircraft in a mass attack (Photo: Ukraine’s Security Service)

“But will it translate into progress at the peace table? I’m not sure, because ultimately Russia wants Ukraine to surrender, it doesn’t want to parley with it.”

Time to move ahead with sanctions

The timing of the attacks, which occurred around direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow in Istanbul on Monday, was no coincidence but an effort to underscore that Ukraine won’t agree to unfavourable terms, Foreman pointed out.

“I think Ukraine was signalling to Russia its determination to fight on. I think it was signalling that Ukraine has cards to play, that it’s not just going to sit there and be the recipient of Russian aggression,” he said.

“Russia’s going to get back some of its own, what it’s trying to inflict onto Ukrainians. And Ukraine won’t roll over at the negotiating table. So I don’t think the timing was accidental.”

Footage released by the Ukrainian Security Service on June 3 allegedly shows the explosion of the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea with Russia following a special operation by the security service (Photo: Ukrainian Security Service/AFP/Getty Images)

Beyond their impact on Russia’s military capabilities, the Ukrainian attacks also serve as a reminder to the Russian people that the war is still ongoing—and that its consequences can be felt at home as well, he said.

At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin may leverage the attacks to influence Donald Trump’s decision-making, asserting that Kyiv cannot be trusted and that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government is illegitimate, Forman said.

“His reaction, I think, will be more to try and convince Americans, Trump in particular, that Ukrainians are an obstacle to peace, not Russia,” he said. “But of course, what he’s forgetting is that he, Putin, has been the one who launched the legal war. It’s him who’s been committing war crimes against Ukrainian civilians by his troops.”

The attacks also add another layer of pressure on the US President, who has been hesitant to impose swift new sanctions and other financial measures on Moscow, arguing that they would hinder negotiations.

“The approach they’ve taken by offering carrots to Russia and not using sticks like sanctions has failed. So I think there’s a very large chance, a very high chance, that Trump will try and walk away,” Forman said.

A satellite view shows destroyed military aircraft at the Belaya air base in Russia after Ukraine’s drone attack, dubbed ‘Operation Spider’s Web’ (Photo: Planet Labs PBC/Reuters)

However, former US Ambassador to Nato and former special representative to Ukraine, Kurt Volker, believes that Trump still wants to demonstrate he can reach a deal and may soon seek Congress’s approval of the measures, which he could then use to pressure Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire.

“I think President Trump has deliberately held back because he is trying to pull Putin in. He wants Putin to agree to a ceasefire and then a settlement,” he said. But Putin is “playing games” with the negotiations, he is reading Trump’s position as “weak,” wants to continue fighting, and therefore, “it’s time to move ahead” with sanctions, Volker said.

By applying continuing military and economic pressure on Moscow, the US, Ukraine and European allies would strain Russia’s resources, weaken its position, “and just have to hope that sooner rather than later Putin will come to the conclusion that he has to end the war.”

Trump doesn’t see Ukraine as critical for US security

The approach of the current US administration differs significantly from that of former President Joe Biden’s administration, as Trump and his cabinet are “much more focused on China and the Asia-Pacific” and view Russia as a declining power.

“My major concern is that this administration fundamentally doesn’t care about Ukraine in the same way as perhaps Biden did,” he said. “They see Ukraine as a non-critical matter for US security” and they think the Europeans as well as Canada should be doing more about their security.

“So I think ultimately, without the Americans fully engaged, bringing all levers of American power to bear, the scenario is that the war will continue.”

In the months ahead, we likely won’t see “a dramatic breakthrough by one side or the other,” Foreman said.

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, private houses are seen ruined after a Russian drone attack in Kyiv on May 25, 2025 (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed this view on Tuesday, telling reporters that “it would be wrong to expect immediate solutions and breakthroughs.”

He also dismissed the prospect of a summit between the presidents of Russia, Ukraine and the US.

“In the near future, it is unlikely,” he told reporters, adding that such a summit could only take place after Russian and Ukrainian negotiators reach an agreement.

The two sides remain far apart.

“I think Ukraine will remain on the back foot and Russia will carry on pressing forward” — on the battlefield and in its efforts to distance the US from Europe, said Foreman.

“You have to have credible tools. You have to use them, otherwise Russia won’t pay attention,” he noted.

“They can see Trump’s inherent weakness and reluctance to do anything towards Russia. And they’re playing him along.”