Russia can attack Europe 2-4 years after war's end, faster with lifted sanctions, Ukrainian intel chief warns

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Russia will be able to restore its combat capabilities and launch an aggression against Europe between two and four years after hostilities in Ukraine end, Ukrainian foreign intelligence (SZRU) chief Oleh Ivashchenko said in an interview with Ukrinform published on May 26.

"If the sanctions are lifted, the rearmament process will proceed much faster," Ivashchenko said in the interview, adding that Kyiv has shared its estimates with European partners.

Western officials have previously shared similar time estimates, underscoring the growing threat of an open clash between Moscow and NATO after the Russian full-scale war against Ukraine ends.

Russia's military is currently heavily engaged in Ukraine, suffering massive losses in manpower and equipment. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. forces in Europe, nevertheless warned in April that Russia is rebuilding its forces much faster than previously anticipated.

Ukraine's military claims that Russia has suffered close to 1 million men killed, injured, or otherwise listed as casualties since the outbreak of the full-scale war.

Kyiv's Western partners — namely the U.S. and the EU — have also sought to restrain Russia's ability to reconstitute its forces by imposing heavy sanctions aimed at cutting off supply chains and throttling Moscow's economy.

U.S., European, and Ukrainian officials and military experts believe that Russia is losing its military edge on the battlefield, presenting it as an impetus to increase pressure on Moscow and force it toward a ceasefire, the Washington Post reported.

Instead, U.S. President Donald Trump said he does not plan any additional sanctions against Russia, so as not to disrupt peace efforts, dashing European hopes of a coordinated strategy. The EU has pledged to ramp up sanctions if Russia continues to reject a ceasefire, and the bloc's 18th sanctions package is currently under discussion.

The Trump administration has previously signaled interest in resuming economic ties with Russia after a potential peace deal, though pledging to maintain the existing sanctions until then.