The Daily Populous Sunday May 18th, 2025 evening edition
Authored by inews.co.uk and submitted by theipaper

Moscow is deploying intelligence specialists and experienced combat units from Ukraine in the Finnish border region - a key potential flashpoint between Russia and Nato

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Hundreds of Russian troops including battle-hardened units from Ukraine and suspected intelligence specialists have been deployed to the Finnish border in recent days as Moscow beefs up its military presence on Nato’s crucial eastern flank.

Satellite images last week revealed how the Kremlin has revamped its defence infrastructure along the 800-mile border, including airbases, army camps and storage facilities.

The region is widely regarded by Western intelligence as a key potential flashpoint should Vladimir Putin seek a direct confrontation with the West.

But new evidence obtained by The i Paper suggests Moscow is also rapidly increasing the number of highly-trained personnel in the region. More than 300 Russian troops, some of them believed to be from experienced combat units fighting in Ukraine, have been redeployed to the Finnish border, according to a European intelligence official.

The upscaling of Russian capabilities in the area is thought to include signals intelligence specialists or electronic warfare experts alongside operational military units which appear to have been specifically diverted to the Leningrad Military District (LMD) – as the Kremlin calls its border region with Finland – from the battlefields of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

A British Army Archer Mobile Howitzer gun fires near Rovaniemi in the Arctic Circle, Finland, during an exercise last year (Photo: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)

It is understood forces have been sent to key sites and ports along the Finnish border, with most of the activity centred around the cities of Kamenka, north of St Petersburg and some 95 miles from Finland, and Kamenogorsk, which is situated just 20 miles from Finland.

The Finnish military is understood to be constantly monitoring the latest deployments. Defence experts said while the deployments were significant, alongside the bolstering of military infrastructure, they were not yet of a scale to signal an imminent Russian threat to Nato’s eastern borders.

They nonetheless fit a pattern of an incremental build-up in Russia’s Finnish border region intended to keep the West guessing about Moscow’s intentions and potentially providing a jumping off point for a future Russian offensive. In response, Nato has increased its presence in the Arctic north as well as the Baltic states, deploying multi-national battlegroups as part of a defensive “posture” designed to deter any Kremlin adventurism.

A leading think-tank this week warned that Russia could be ready to launch an offensive against the alliance as soon as 2027.

One Western diplomat said: “One way or another we are seeing the outlines of what Russia’s stance towards Nato will look like beyond Ukraine. If we have technically capable personnel moving in numbers to LMD then it fits a pattern of that area being a priority for the Kremlin and its future intentions, whatever they might be.”

Emil Kastehelmi, a Finnish military analyst with Black Bird Group, which monitors Russian military activity, said Moscow was changing its defence structure around Finland to allow the likely deployment of “tens of thousands” of additional troops in the coming years.

He said: “Naturally, a significantly greater number of soldiers affects the security environment… The probability of a conventional war is relatively low, even though tensions are high.

“Russia has no legitimate security concerns in the North, as Nato’s posture is purely defensive, and Russia knows this, even though it tells a different story in its propaganda. [But] after the war in Ukraine ends or freezes, the situation must of course be constantly monitored. There are still various scenarios where the situation can go.”

While the precise purpose of the new troops was not immediately clear, the inclusion of specialist intelligence personnel could indicate a desire by Moscow to improve its surveillance capabilities in the region or intensify so-called “grey zone” activities aimed at undermining its adversaries while stopping short of outright conflict. Fingers have been pointed at Russia over a spate of incidents in the Baltic Sea where subsea infrastructure such as data cables have been severed or damaged by cargo vessels dragging their anchors.

However, military commanders and politicians in Europe are also increasingly alarmed by the growing potential for the Kremlin to seek a direct showdown with Nato in locations including the Baltic states and territory controlled by the military alliance’s two newest members, Finland and Sweden.

Among the factors being balanced by commanders is the fact a ceasefire or peace deal in Ukraine could free up Moscow to send hundreds of thousands of troops north as it points its war-time economy towards a confrontation with Nato.

Nato and the UK Ministry of Defence are already taking steps to increase their preparedness for fighting in Arctic terrain and conditions.

Some 350 British troops, including artillery units and Apache attack helicopters, will this week take part in a joint exercise with Finnish and Swedish troops to improve co-ordination between forces and surveillance capabilities.

A senior Finnish commander last month warned that Russia is restoring troop numbers on its western borders that had been reduced by the Ukraine war and is now intent on testing the resolve of Nato to maintain its commitment to Article 5 – the foundation stone of the alliance which requires members to come to the aid of an ally under attack.

Lieutenant General Vesa Virtanen, the deputy head of Finnish armed forces, told the German newspaper Die Welt: “Now we see that Russia is building new infrastructure and bringing more troops to this region as soon as they can. They are reorganising themselves.”

The need for a sense of urgency in European capitals was underlined this week by a study published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) which warned Europe faces a “window of vulnerability” should the Trump administration begin to wind down its support for Nato.

The report found Britain and its European allies would need to replace 128,000 American troops currently stationed in or available for deployment in Europe, and spend up to $1 trillion (£750bn) to replace the manpower and capabilities, including satellite surveillance, currently provided by Washington.

Finnish Arctic warfare units have been training British, Swiss and French troops in cold-weather logistics (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty Images)

In the meantime, it warned, Russia could reconstitute its forces to their pre-Ukraine war levels in less than 24 months if a peace deal is struck with Kyiv. The think-tank said: “Russia could be in a position to pose a significant military challenge to Nato allies, particularly the Baltic states, as early as 2027. By then, Russia’s ground forces could mirror its February 2022 active equipment holdings through a combination of refurbishment and the production of new systems.”

A study of satellite images by Kastehelmi, released this week, detailed seven locations within striking distance of Finland, including five airbases, where military infrastructure has been significantly upgraded or activity has increased in the last two years.

They include a military base in Kamenka where last spring 140 military tents were erected along with earthworks, offering temporary accommodation for up to 2,000 troops. Separately, in Petrozavodsk, some 180 miles from the Finnish border, storage sheds have been built to hold – and disguise – large numbers of vehicles.

The report also found work at three airbases, including the construction of protective shelters for fighter jets and the recommissioning of a previously closed military airstrip for helicopters. Importantly, another base in the region is also being used to house long-range bombers that could launch cruise missile attacks on Ukraine in the hope the aircraft can remain out of range of reprisal Ukrainian drone attacks.

Commanders and experts said the infrastructure works appeared to be driven by a mixture of long-term planning and a desire by the Kremlin to be seen to adopt its own more muscular posture against Nato.

Kastehelmi said: “Russian military activity near Finland should be interpreted as a response to the general shift of the geopolitical situation in the North. Some of these activities can be linked to pre-existing plans, but some are a response to Finland and Sweden joining Nato.”

In the meantime, Russia is expected to continue, and likely intensify, its “grey zone” activities against Nato members.

The Finland border region has been hit repeatedly in the last year by suspected incidents of so-called GPS “spoofing” or jamming of navigation signals used by civilian aircraft. Open source tracking of incidents suggests jamming activity has been particularly prevalent in areas surrounding Kamenka and Kamenogorsk.

Successful_Ride6920 on May 18th, 2025 at 13:48 UTC »

Am I incorrect in thinking this could be a good thing? make them use their military resources for defending their borders, Russia is a huge country and they could be stretched thin. The more Russia uses its resources elsewhere, the less they have to use against Ukraine. It's very unlikely that Russia does attack Finland, or any other NATO member country.

One_Firefighter336 on May 18th, 2025 at 13:18 UTC »

The spirit of Simo Häyhä is watching, and waiting for his chance to return.

theipaper on May 18th, 2025 at 12:50 UTC »

Hundreds of Russian troops including battle-hardened units from Ukraine and suspected intelligence specialists have been deployed to the Finnish border in recent days as Moscow beefs up its military presence on Nato’s crucial eastern flank.

Satellite images last week revealed how the Kremlin has revamped its defence infrastructure along the 800-mile border, including airbases, army camps and storage facilities.

The region is widely regarded by Western intelligence as a key potential flashpoint should Vladimir Putin seek a direct confrontation with the West.

But new evidence obtained by The i Paper suggests Moscow is also rapidly increasing the number of highly-trained personnel in the region. More than 300 Russian troops, some of them believed to be from experienced combat units fighting in Ukraine, have been redeployed to the Finnish border, according to a European intelligence official.

The upscaling of Russian capabilities in the area is thought to include signals intelligence specialists or electronic warfare experts alongside operational military units which appear to have been specifically diverted to the Leningrad Military District (LMD) – as the Kremlin calls its border region with Finland – from the battlefields of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

It is understood forces have been sent to key sites and ports along the Finnish border, with most of the activity centred around the cities of Kamenka, north of St Petersburg and some 95 miles from Finland, and Kamenogorsk, which is situated just 20 miles from Finland.

The Finnish military is understood to be constantly monitoring the latest deployments. Defence experts said while the deployments were significant, alongside the bolstering of military infrastructure, they were not yet of a scale to signal an imminent Russian threat to Nato’s eastern borders.

They nonetheless fit a pattern of an incremental build-up in Russia’s Finnish border region intended to keep the West guessing about Moscow’s intentions and potentially providing a jumping off point for a future Russian offensive. In response, Nato has increased its presence in the Arctic north as well as the Baltic states, deploying multi-national battlegroups as part of a defensive “posture” designed to deter any Kremlin adventurism.

A leading think-tank this week warned that Russia could be ready to launch an offensive against the alliance as soon as 2027.

One Western diplomat said: “One way or another we are seeing the outlines of what Russia’s stance towards Nato will look like beyond Ukraine. If we have technically capable personnel moving in numbers to LMD then it fits a pattern of that area being a priority for the Kremlin and its future intentions, whatever they might be.”