Childhood vaccination rates have been falling in the United States, especially since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Even at current immunization rates, researchers predict that measles may become endemic again - circulating in the U.S. - within two decades; with small declines in vaccination, this could happen more quickly.
These include measles, polio, rubella and diphtheria, which can have awful complications, like lifelong paralysis, birth defects and death.
If vaccination rates remain the same, the model predicts that measles may become endemic within about 20 years.
Measles would become endemic in less than five years, and rubella would become endemic in less than 20.
Lo: One that's conceivable is that vaccine coverage continues to drop, measles outbreaks become larger and more frequent, and eventually measles becomes endemic again.
Increasing vaccination levels by just 5% brings the number of measles cases down, safely away from returning to endemic levels. »
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