The Daily Populous Sunday April 6th, 2025 evening edition
Authored by abc.net.au and submitted by SolRon25

What do you get when two strongmen become mates?

For US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the answer so far has been chemistry, an aligning of ideas and a shared vision for "MEGA prosperity" that will make both their countries great again.

But when those political strongmen are nationalist — as they so often are — and prioritise domestic interests above all else, in a global economy, at some point, something's gotta give.

A seemingly equal partnership will eventually tilt in favour of one party, who will emerge with more power — perhaps military, economic or, in this case, negotiating.

And the other might be left wondering, like a kid in the playground whose friend has just turned on them: "How could they do that to me?"

That is certainly one way of looking at Mr Trump's doling out of 26 per cent tariffs to India as part of his "Liberation Day" sweep.

Donald Trump announced his new tariff regime in the Rose Garden at the White House. (Reuters: Carlos Barria)

During his announcement, he again described Mr Modi as a "great friend" before adding he told the Indian PM: "You're a friend of mine, but you're not treating us right. They charge us 52 per cent, and we have charged them almost nothing for years and years."

That was despite days of trade negotiations between the two countries last week, working towards a bilateral trade agreement slated to start around September, which will likely see India shave huge numbers off the high tariffs it currently applies to US imports in exchange for concessions.

Modi snubbed on tariffs as Trump pushes 'reciprocal' trade Photo shows Two men speak at a press conference at the White House. Modi left Washington without a tariff exemption as Trump reinforced reciprocal duties, amid talks on trade, defence, and immigration — plus an awkward Trump moment with an Indian reporter.

The Indian government has already reduced tariffs on Harley-Davidson bikes and Bourbon whiskey and has rolled back the "Google tax", a 6 per cent levy on online advertisements placed with foreign tech companies like Google.

Government sources told Reuters last week that India would be open to cutting tariffs on more than half of US imports worth $23 billion in the trade deal's first phase.

Speaking to the ABC after Mr Trump's announcement, South Asia Practice head for the Eurasia Group Pramit Pal Chaudhuri said India had put forward a "reasonably radical tariff proposal" of zero tariffs for zero tariffs on 70 per cent of goods traded between the two countries.

Some had hoped that proposal for the bilateral trade agreement, plus the goodwill from the longstanding friendship between the two countries' leaders, may have won India a complete exemption from this week's tariffs.

Now that it hasn't, it has some asking the question — is the bromance over?

Unsurprisingly, opposition politicians in India have cried foul that Mr Modi has bowed down to Mr Trump.

But others say this is exactly what Mr Modi knew would happen — and he's got a plan that, ultimately, will wind up benefiting India.

Leader of the opposition Congress party Rahul Gandhi told parliament on Thursday that the 26 per cent tariff would "completely devastate" India's economy, and accused Mr Modi's BJP party of long-time deference to other nations.

"When asked, do you lean left or do you lean right? They say, 'No, no, no, we bow our head right in front of every foreigner that comes in front of us,'" he said.

The party's president, Mallikarjun Kharge, said the tariffs showed Mr Trump was a "businessman" whose "customer", Mr Modi, was "trapped", despite a surface friendship of "hugging, talking, laughing".

India's opposition says the government needs to stand up to Trump. (AP: Ben Curtis)

Senior Congress MP Manish Tewari described it as "an abject failure of the negotiations that were taking place between the US and the government of India".

"The government needs to develop a spine and stand up to the US," he said.

The tariffs are the latest in a series of recent incidents that some — especially, unsurprisingly, opposition politicians — have branded as the US bullying India.

Outrage flared most notably over the way the US handled and deported illegal immigrants from India, shackled and chained, in the same week a video was shared on the White House's Instagram page titled "ASMR: Illegal Alien Deportation Flight", designed to have viewers find comfort in the sounds of handcuffs and chains being put on immigrants.

One Indian journalist said the images of deportees landed so badly with Indians not because they thought the illegal immigrants should not have been deported, "but because Modi's India can't imagine any country meting out such a humiliating treatment to Indians when he is at the helm".

But, when it came to the tariff announcement, it appears it's only the political opposition who is really concerned.

What is a tariff? A tariff is a tax on a product imported from another country

from another country It's paid to the government by the company that imports the product

that imports the product The tariff is generally calculated as a percentage of the price paid by the importer to the foreign seller

paid by the importer to the foreign seller Historically, tariffs have pushed up prices as higher product costs are often passed on to consumers

Political analyst Pramit Pal Chaudhuri from the Eurasia Group and Ananta Aspen Centre of India conceded that, for Mr Modi, "the optics are bad".

But he doesn't think it will damage his reputation, nor impact how the Indian government deals with Mr Trump going forward.

"Modi's politically in a very strong position," he said.

"Yes, among his right-wing backing — which is about 40 per cent of his vote share and about maybe 10 to 15 per cent would be his ideological supports — for them, the idea that he's conceding to the United States or to any other country on sovereignty grounds would be damaging.

"[But], I don't think he's that concerned.

"My sense is there's a 'keep calm and carry on' position in India.

"[Mr Trump] comes out violently against everybody, and he is much more critical of other countries and governments.

"So there's a sense in India of, OK, this guy is what he is. Let's just focus on the overall policies of the government, or what Trump does, as opposed to what he says."

All eyes on bilateral trade agreement

In initial comments to media after the announcement, a commerce ministry official said the Indian government was "analysing" the impacts of the tariffs.

"It is a mixed bag and not a setback for India," the official said.

Junior finance minister Pankaj Chaudhary reiterated that a few hours later.

"For Donald Trump, it's America first, and for PM Modi, it's India first," he said.

"We will analyse it first, then assess its impact and see how to deal with it."

How Trump's tariffs will hit Asia Photo shows US President Trump holds up a board showing the reciprocal tariffs on other countries at the White House rose garden. The new tariffs are a blow for nations that have powered economic growth by opening large markets in the US for manufactured goods.

The seemingly business-as-usual approach is a stark contrast to countries that have vowed a stiff response to the tariffs.

Industry groups, on the whole, also do not appear particularly rattled by the announcement or by the likelihood of India scrapping its own tariffs significantly in any eventual bilateral trade agreement.

On the contrary, some are saying the comparatively low tariffs on Indian goods compared to many of its Asian neighbours mean India could swoop in and take over their markets.

There appears to be consensus among commentators and some industry groups that the focus should now be on nailing the bilateral trade agreement and that the tariffs are merely a bump in the road.

"Trump sees this as a leverage issue," Mr Pal Chaudhuri said.

"I've hit you with tariffs and now, therefore, I have leverage on you."

He argued that Mr Modi and his team understood this about the president — after all, his negotiation tactics were spelled out in his book, The Art of the Deal — and saw a few months of tariffs before a bilateral trade agreement kicked in as just the price of doing business.

In any event, the US's local manufacturing capacity — or lack thereof — means there was likely never a chance the two countries would ever let this get in the way of their relationship.

The market share India enjoys, and stands to widen, means they are willing to be "more flexible than any other country in the world", according to economics professor Dr Ashwini Mahajan.

He is the national co-convenor of the right-wing Swadeshi Jagaran Manch organisation, which is affiliated with the far-right, Hindu-nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, or RSS, which has huge influence over Mr Modi's government.

"We know that the US is a high-cost economy," he said.

"They do not have much production capacity for many goods.

"India is not going to get any harm. There are certain commodities which are essential for the US population that they will have to import from us."

Mr Pal Chaudhuri said, despite the outcries from Congress, the relationship between India and the US was unlikely to be destabilised at all.

He said that now the Indian government was working with the US to stop, and deport, illegal immigrants, all that was left to smooth over was Mr Trump's issue with India's historically high tariffs.

"If we sign a bilateral trade agreement by the end of this year, you effectively [will] have removed the two biggest irritants in the relationship," Mr Pal Chaudhuri said.

"For India, this is not even a question. America is simply too important for us to consider anything else.

Adorable-Puff on April 6th, 2025 at 04:23 UTC »

USA and India said they want to negotiate a bilateral trade deal within this year. It would be stupid of Modi if he speaks out for no reason, certainly not publicly.

Talks are coming along well, afaik US asked India to open up its agriculture and dairy, India flagged certain issues arounf it. For example, Indian mangos are good quality yet even if they go through phytosanitary certification they won't get market access in USA as they might harm local crops, this will apply to a lot of Indian fruits, vegetables etc. So how can India allow full access to america in agriculture but they won't do the same? Its about reciprocity after all.

poojinping on April 6th, 2025 at 04:17 UTC »

While Indian exports have become expensive but so have other exports to US, as long as Indian exports are cheaper than others it’s a net gain. Domestic US products can’t compete with Indian products at these prices even with tariffs.

Maybe they are working on a deal to lower the tariffs. Trump needs political win, so long as Modi says Trump made him sign a deal that benefits US, he will get what he wants.

SolRon25 on April 6th, 2025 at 04:04 UTC »

SS: What do you get when two strongmen become mates?

For US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the answer so far has been chemistry, an aligning of ideas and a shared vision for "MEGA prosperity" that will make both their countries great again.

But when those political strongmen are nationalist — as they so often are — and prioritise domestic interests above all else, in a global economy, at some point, something's gotta give.

A seemingly equal partnership will eventually tilt in favour of one party, who will emerge with more power — perhaps military, economic or, in this case, negotiating.

And the other might be left wondering, like a kid in the playground whose friend has just turned on them: "How could they do that to me?"

That is certainly one way of looking at Mr Trump's doling out of 26 per cent tariffs to India as part of his "Liberation Day" sweep.

During his announcement, he again described Mr Modi as a "great friend" before adding he told the Indian PM: "You're a friend of mine, but you're not treating us right. They charge us 52 per cent, and we have charged them almost nothing for years and years."

That was despite days of trade negotiations between the two countries last week, working towards a bilateral trade agreement slated to start around September, which will likely see India shave huge numbers off the high tariffs it currently applies to US imports in exchange for concessions.

Some had hoped that proposal for the bilateral trade agreement, plus the goodwill from the longstanding friendship between the two countries' leaders, may have won India a complete exemption from this week's tariffs.

Now that it hasn't, it has some asking the question — is the bromance over?

Unsurprisingly, opposition politicians in India have cried foul that Mr Modi has bowed down to Mr Trump.

But others say this is exactly what Mr Modi knew would happen — and he's got a plan that, ultimately, will wind up benefiting India.