The Daily Populous Thursday March 27th, 2025 night edition
Authored by oag.com and submitted by erg99

Airline capacity between Canada and the US has been reduced through to October 2025, with the most significant cuts occurring during the peak travel months of July and August.

Passenger bookings on Canada – US routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year.

The latest weekly update of OAG schedules data suggests that airline capacity between Canada and the US remains broadly unchanged for the summer season. However, a closer look at recent weeks reveals a downward trend in airline capacity and a sharp decline in forward bookings.

Scheduled Airline Capacity from Canada to the US

Comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on 3rd March and those filed on 24th March, the table below shows that over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October. The most noticeable cuts are in July and August - the two peak summer season months - where airlines have cut capacity by some 3.5%.

Short notice adjustments to schedules are always challenging for airlines, especially for the summer season when slot availability in alternate markets may not be easy to find. However, since the beginning of March, WestJet have added an additional 114 flights to Europe as they actively place capacity outside of the United States; Dublin and Edinburgh are the two airports benefiting the most from these changes in capacity.

Limited slot availability at major European airports might be part of the reason Air Canada have not followed WestJet. Although Air Canada typically has larger proportions of connecting traffic across its network, much of which connects at a US hub to one of its Star Alliance partners, making it more difficult to manage when flights are cancelled.

Canada to the US: Forward Bookings Collapse

Despite airline schedule changes and capacity being redirected to other markets, a more troubling trend emerges from forward demand data: future flight bookings between Canada and the US have collapsed.

Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we've compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.

For all scheduled airlines operating between the United States and Canada any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and when taking place at such short notice. Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences is once again impacting the airline industry adding to what had already become a softening market. For those that are still planning to travel there may be some airlines offering particularly cheap airfares over the next few months as they seek to stimulate demand but for the airlines it will be a nervous few months, especially as the traditional "snowbird" market from Canada to the US could be badly impacted next year if the situation doesn’t improve quickly.

Syscrush on March 26th, 2025 at 19:04 UTC »

A friend and former colleague works for a large company that has offices around the world, including Canada and the US. He sent a member of his team from Toronto to a US office for 2 weeks of training. This is a regular practice, this same company had run this same training for their employees from around the world dozens of times. He was sent with exactly the same paperwork that had always been sufficient.

This poor guy was held in secondary inspection for a day and then denied entry. The border agents were just somehow sure that he was up to no good, going to do something other than training.

When more stories like this get out, business travel to the US that would have previously been considered routine and essential is going to be cancelled. It's not just going to be rescheduled vacations, and it's not just going to be out of a sense of national pride or principle. There are clear, pragmatic reasons to avoid crossing the Canada-US border as much as possible now.

fer_sure on March 26th, 2025 at 18:33 UTC »

That's just "booked" travel like flights and hotels. I'd be curious to see what the impact is on "I'm just gonna pop down to Fargo for the weekend" trips.

Lex2882 on March 26th, 2025 at 18:31 UTC »

There's still time till summer to make it 99%.