The Daily Populous Friday March 14th, 2025 morning edition
Authored by theaviationist.com and submitted by SpottedDicknCustard

The recent shift in U.S. policy toward NATO has led the Portuguese Defense Minister to deem a potential F-35 procurement unlikely.

In an interview with Portuguese media outlet Público published on Mar. 13, 2025, Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo dismissed the possibility of ordering the fifth-generation fighter, aligning with other European nations reconsidering their defense procurement strategies.

The Minister, pointed directly at the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration as a key factor in the decision.

Trump’s controversial remarks about NATO, questioning member contributions and even suggesting the U.S. might not uphold its defense commitments, as well as the decision to halt the deliveries of weapons as well as the sharing of intelligence with Ukraine following the meeting with Zelensky at the White House, have raised alarms across Europe.

Below are the most important excerpts from the interview.

Q. Europe is preparing a significant financial package for defence. If the AD government is re-elected, will it approve the purchase of F-35 aircraft? “The F-16s are at the end of their cycle and we will have to think about their replacement. However, we cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO and in the international geostrategic plan, must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account. We must believe that, in all circumstances, these allies will be on our side. There are several options that must be considered, particularly in the context of European production and also taking into account the return that these options may have on the Portuguese economy.” Q. The Air Force wants this replacement to be made with F-35s, which are American-made aircraft. What you are saying is that, due to the change in American foreign policy, it is less likely that Portugal will replace the F-16s with an American aircraft? “The world has already changed. There were elections in the US, there was a position in relation to NATO and the world, stated by the Secretary of Defense and by the US President himself, which must also be taken into account in Europe and in what concerns Portugal. And this ally of ours, which has always been predictable over the decades, could bring limitations to use, maintenance, components, and everything that has to do with ensuring that aircraft will be operational and used in all types of scenarios.”

Notably, Portugal is also reconsidering the procurement due to potential U.S. limitations on foreign-operated F-35s, including the withholding of software upgrades—managed by the U.S.—that are essential for optimal performance and security.

As we explained in detail in a previous article about the “kill switch” myth, according to which the U.S. government has the ability to remotely disable or limit the operational capabilities of foreign-operated F-35 fighter jets, international F-35 operators “are not allowed to conduct independent test operations outside of the Continental United States (CONUS) based on U.S. policy. United States Government (USG) security rules and National Defense Policy (NDP) require that U.S. citizens perform specific functions in order to protect critical U.S. technology.”

In another long interview with Portuguese newspaper Diário de Notícias published on Apr. 12, 2024, the Portuguese Air Force Chief of Staff, General João Cartaxo Alves, confirmed the plan of the Força Aérea Portuguesa to replace the F-16 with the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II aircraft, saying the transition had already started.

Gen. Cartaxo Alves stated that the decision was aimed at keeping in line with the majority of European allies who have already begun transitioning to the F-35, as part of their strategic efforts.

Noteworthy, the F-35 procurement by Portugal has always been somewhat controversial.

In April 2024, Air Force Chief of Staff General João Cartaxo Alves confirmed the service was in a “transition” phase toward the stealth fighter, mirroring decisions made by several NATO partners. The Chief of the Portuguese Air Force also added that the transition to a new fighter aircraft would span approximately two decades, with an estimated expenditure of 5.5 billion Euro allocated for this program.

The statements of Cartaxo Alves had made the headlines in 2023 too: at a military airlift and refueling conference in Lisbon, the Portuguese Air Force Chief of Staff publicly acknowledged that Lockheed Martin’s 5th-generation fighter was a suitable replacement for the country’s aging F-16 fleet. However, the enthusiasm was quickly tempered by the government. The Portuguese Ministry of Defense wasted no time in clarifying that no formal procurement process was in place. “This is a vision for the future, so currently, there is no process for purchasing aircraft to replace the F-16,” said Defense Ministry spokesperson Helena Carreiras in a statement to Breaking Defense.

Fast forward to March 2025, with the F-35 seemingly off the table, Portugal’s next move remains unclear. When asked about the possibility of acquiring the Dassault Rafale, Melo declined to comment. Various options will likely be considered, most probably including the Saab Gripen and the Eurofighter Typhoon.

Regardless, as expected, the tensions between the new U.S. administration and NATO are already driving some nations (and will probably drive more ones in the future) to reassess their defense procurement decisions.

zatchstar on March 14th, 2025 at 01:34 UTC »

lockheed martin donated quite a bit to Trumps campaign and inauguration. better start tightening that belt...

MoldyApplesauce22 on March 13rd, 2025 at 23:20 UTC »

Has Donald declared this an illegal boycott of F-35’s? Maybe he should buy one.

Itsprobablysarcasm on March 13rd, 2025 at 23:10 UTC »

Do we know what the contract cost was?

Canada's F35 contract is worth almost $51 billion USD